r/valueinvesting
Brightstar Lottery 下跌 25% - 价值投资机会
作者逢低买入 Brightstar Lottery，理由包括 8% 的安全股息、新合同以及可能推动业绩超预期的罕见‘大奖汇聚’现象。
- 具有吸引力的 8% 股息率，经 AI 分析认为安全，提供强劲收入。
- 催化剂包括新 CEO 上任、获得意大利牌照以及推动增长的新合同。
- 罕见的‘大奖汇聚’现象预计将提升休闲玩家参与度，并推动业绩意外超预期。
- 股价表现不佳，年初至今下跌 25%。
- 被视为‘无聊’股票，散户兴趣极低且网络曝光度小。
Happy to share so much on this stock, but appreciate a lot of text puts people off from reading. I have had daily conversations with AI pulling in all of their data, utilising public info such as lottery ticket sales and tracking rollover jackpot status.
If you take a look at the share price it is down 25% since the start of the year. I started buying at $13, then $12 and when it dipped below $11 I doubled my investment. It is currently the most I've ever had in one share.
Firstly, it's a boring stock. Pretty much nobody talks about it online, there's a handful of articles, but it is considered a player in the lottery industry, excuse the pun.
Currently an 8% dividend. AI thinks this is a safe dividend payment with no risk of it being cut.
New CEO incoming
Massive Italian license fee paid and secured
New contracts announced this quarter
New contracts going live this year (growth)
Primary markets pushing towards more profitable digital sales.
All of the above (and more) is why I bought in. I'm happy to sit on this and hopefully continue enjoying the dividend.
Why I'm actively recommending now is the chance of a rare lottery phenomenon called jackpot convergence. When a major jackpot rolls over to levels where you hear about it on the news, it attracts the casual player which significantly boosts profits. These players are more likely to play online and also more likely to buy a scratch card or other more profitable product at point of purchase, further boosting the case of an unexpected quarter jump.
This happens when one jackpot rolls over to 'frenzy' levels. Currently there are 3 jackpots on course to hit frenzy levels all near the same time. 2 more weeks of rollovers and this goes from a decent quarter to a surprise earnings beat.
All mine and AI's opinions. Please do your own research. And yes, all 3 jackpots could be won tomorrow, but with the odds and ticket coverage currently that is unlikely. Ask AI to break down the odds of the rollovers continuing and you'll see why I'm so invested in this.
我肯定得用实际电子表格来建模，Gemini 和 Claude 的 DCF 估值是 4 倍，同时你还能拿到不错的股息……
不，当聊天机器人说某个 X 公司的 DCF 不错时，这不代表结论已定，但这算是个不错的筛选工具，可以看看像 BSX、ULTA、MSFT 这样的是否“略微”低估，或者像 Adobe 或 PayPal 这样是否严重低估……
初步来看，这似乎严重低估……好发现。