r/stockmarket
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) 存在多数筛选器遗漏的隐蔽跨角色内部人买入模式
作者发现 TPL 在过去 90 天内出现罕见的跨角色内部人买入集群，并探讨其统计显著性。
- 罕见的跨角色内部人积累：1名董事和1名持股超10%的股东在90天内进行了60次公开市场购买。
- 内部人士用大量公开市场资金表达信心，显示出对公司价值的强烈看好。
我提取了德州太平洋土地公司（TPL）的SEC Form 4数据，发现了一个大多数内幕交易筛查工具不会显示的情况：过去90天内，TPL有1位董事加上1位持股超过10%的股东，合计进行了60笔场内买入。跨角色累积（即多个不同类型的内部人士在相同时间段独立买入）是学术研究中最为罕见的内幕集团信号变体。Cohen、Malloy和Pomorski在一篇被广泛引用的2012年论文中对此有过研究。
标准的内幕交易页面（如雅虎财经）会将所有交易合并成单一的买入/卖出列，导致无法区分角色类别。OpenInsider虽然展示原始交易记录，但不会按角色类别进行聚合。
我实际上有三个问题很感兴趣：
- 你如何看待跨角色集团信号与同角色信号（例如3位董事同时买入）之间的区别？在你的经验中，它们的信号强度是否不同？
- 90天的窗口期是否太长了？学术研究通常使用7到14天的窗口，但那样在真实股票上产生的信号实在太少。
- 有没有人观察到这种模式在样本外依然有效？还是说在小样本情况下，这往往只是巧合？
TPL目前是一个例子，但在我的数据中，每季度大约有5到10只股票会出现这种模式。
It shows all those trades on one of the most popular screeners, finviz, and it seems to be a daily purchase of a single share.. Why did you exclude that pertinent piece of information? 60 trades is meaningless, of you consider it's less than 100 shares
OP is likely pumping to dump. This stock is stuck
Zoom out and compare it to the S&P 500
It's not just destroying the s&p, it is also poorly correlated to it. Anyone should want this stock in their portfolio.
fair point, the headline oversells it. most of those 60 are Horizon Kinetics buying 1-50 shares a day, plus 2 director buys.
on the CFO sale though, that’s actually code F (tax withholding on an RSU vest), not an open-market sell. Finviz lumps F and S together but they’re different transactions.
curious what you’d consider the threshold where small-share daily accumulation by a 10%+ holder starts to mean something?
That’s a really solid breakdown, especially the clarification on the F-code vs actual selling. I didn’t realize Finviz grouped them like that, so that definitely changes how I’d read it. As for thresholds, I’d probably look more at consistent patterns over time rather than the raw daily share size.
AI slop
ThetaPal is legit for tracking insiders. AI market scanner paired with it is legit as well.
Horizon Kinetics is a >5% shareholder so you'll see all the trading they do on form 4s which might be what the common insider trades sites are showing. open insider is ok but you'll still have to do a lot of digging in there. For insider sentiment stuff, I usually go to insider oracle. IO is not just trades though -- comp, holdings, and governance stuff.
yeah Insider Oracle is solid for the breadth (comp, holdings, governance). edgarkit is narrower on purpose, just realtime SEC EDGAR filings as JSON with a webhook layer for the trading side.
on Horizon Kinetics, youre right that >5% holders show up everywhere because they have to file every share. the question I keep getting stuck on is the one in my OP: when does their 1-50 share daily cadence stop being mandatory disclosure noise and start being accumulation worth paying attention to? curious how you’d filter for that.