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r/stockmarket· u/lies_are_comforting· 7 天前Discussion 52

SNAP 股价 4.66 美元接近历史低点，三个月前曾在此反弹。这三个月发生了什么变化？

投资者摘要看多

SNAP 因 AR 眼镜发布年初至今跌 40%，但分析师看涨 75%，且信用评级上调，激进投资者拟将其价值翻 7 倍。

看多要点

分析师预测 SNAP 有高达 75% 的上涨空间，远高于同行。
基本面改善，包括信用评级上调至 BB- 以及裁员 16% 以削减成本。
激进投资者 Irenic 收购了 2.5% 的股份，并计划将公司价值提升 7 倍。

看空要点

在发布 Specs AR 眼镜后，股价几天内暴跌 20%。
第一季度财报表现平平，表明可能存在潜在的运营挑战。

SNAP PINS RDDT META财报季价值 / 回购

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

我们是否应该预期股价会重新触及高3美元区间的历史新高？还是说股价很可能会迅速反弹至5美元到6美元区间？

让我们来对比一下公司当前的状况与三到四个月前股价在3美元到4美元区间时的情况。

2月到4月：进入2026年，所有社交媒体类股票都遭受重创。RDDT、PINS和SNAP在2月到4月期间一度全年下跌约50%。如今回看，RDDT和PINS目前全年跌幅约为25%，而SNAP此前也处于类似水平，但几天前Specs AR眼镜发布后，股价在数日内暴跌20%，导致其全年跌幅已超过40%。

有趣的是，大约十位不同的股票分析师在眼镜发布后更新了对SNAP的评级和目标价，但无一给出负面评价。他们全部维持中性立场并重申原有预测，唯独富国银行的一位分析师反而上调了目标价。

当然，分析师通常并不被高度信任，很多时候他们似乎只是在股价当前位置下注。不过，值得注意的是，分析师普遍认为PINS和RDDT有约30%的上行空间，META有40%的上行空间，而SNAP则高达75%的上行潜力。

大多数评论过Specs眼镜发布的分析师普遍表示，一切发展都在他们预料之中。他们更关注公司的核心业务表现。

回顾Snap Inc从现在到2月-4月的变化，有几个关键点值得注意：6月3日，SP Global评级将公司发行人信用评级从B+上调至BB-；3月31日，激进投资者Irenic披露其持有公司2.5%的大额股份，并宣布计划将公司价值提升7倍；4月15日，Snap Inc因人工智能进展裁员16%，即约1000个岗位。

Snap的Q1财报表现参差不齐，但公司向盈利转型的进程似乎进展顺利。然而，北美地区日活跃用户持续下滑的问题仍未解决。

那么，你怎么看？股价会卡在4美元附近，还是会跌破4美元，创下历史新低？又或者，它是否正准备反弹至5美元以上，甚至短期内冲上6美元？就在五天前，股价还曾达到6美元，而Specs眼镜的发布使其迅速暴跌至当前的4.66美元。

最后值得一提的是，上周当伊朗和平协议宣布时，股价一度上涨近10%。当然，随着霍尔木兹海峡现已关闭（或尚未关闭？）市场可能在明天开盘时出现负面反应，除非底部已经形成。

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/HangInThereTiger 80· 7 天前高赞

They have 950 million users and never turned an actual profit. My God, at least Zuck can run a real life business. Snap spectacles are not going to be worn by anyone, they're hilariously ugly. Longtime shareholder and I regret it.

u/jigmaster500 10· 7 天前

Those glasses really are ugly

u/pielekonter 19· 7 天前

You can't be in business for over a decade and not turn a profit. That's crazy. It wouldn't even be eligible for a value trap, as there's no value.

u/Polus43 3· 7 天前

You can't be in business for over a decade and not turn a profit.

Easily the most underdiscussed and concerning situation in markets for the last ~10 years. Like $MDB (https://finviz.com/stock?t=MDB&p=w) has been in business for almost 20 years and has never made money other than the last two quarters.

And the NoSQL MongoDB product has so many competing commercial and open source solutions it's wild (DynamoDB from AWS; Firestore from Google Cloud; Couchbase; PostgreSQL). Their MongoDB Atlas Cloud product is fine.

u/IllGene2373 17· 7 天前

Yes, but in the entire span of the company, they are unprofitable.

u/ga643953 17· 7 天前

Look at the SG&A and you'll see why the stock is trading at this valuation.

Also I don't think glasses are ever going to be a thing.

Meta, Apple, Snapchat, none of them are going to make glasses the go-to device for AI when we already have phones. It also doesn't help that these wearables are either too heavy or too damn ugly.

u/strikethree 8· 7 天前

Tech glasses have made an incredible leap in terms on usability.

Problem has always been looks. When that thing is on your face, looks matters more than the actual function.

None of the companies have been able to get a slim or cool looking version out there with current tech. I think Meta is getting close.

u/lifeHopes21 14· 7 天前

Snap is a bag of shit I am still holding hoping to always recover what i invested.

u/lies_are_comforting 3· 7 天前

My average buy price is $5.28 so I’m currently down 10 % ish.

I feel the pain for whoever bought at like $9 but having bought around $5 I honestly feel it has little downside and a ton of upside.

u/madison_hedgecock39 11· 7 天前

Nothing you’ve written is about why the company is worth more than $5 a share. It’s all about”it’s down 50% omg its value” this is all hopes and dreams investing

u/ga643953 10· 7 天前

Profitability has always been shit. They are not a high margin business if you compare them to regular SaaS companies and even those are being sold off.

Why does an 8 billion dollar company need so many employees?

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 6· 7 天前

Maybe if they stopped giving the c suite over $1 billion in SBC, it might be a buy. And if one of them did an open market purchase, ever, i might be more interested. I bought, but sold at s slight loss. Maybe at these prices it could be a buy

u/Sempai6969 3· 7 天前

Last time I opened Snapchat there was nothing but thirst traps on my discover page and onlyfans bots sending me requests. I hope it burns to the ground.

u/heyitsmemaya 3· 7 天前

What metrics are you looking for as a shareholder?

It would seem Snap doesn’t have any of those, just a weird billionaire founder who maintains control over his dual class of stock company and tries to remain relevant.

u/Better_Lion5369 3· 7 天前

Lol if you believe that to be the truth then you are somethin' special. Keep drinking the Kool-Aid 😉 that'll get you far in life

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