r/valueinvesting
4% 利率的储蓄账户可能比标普 500 更具投资价值
标普500远期市盈率高达25倍且GDP增长缓慢，加上AI预期已完全计入股价，4%的储蓄账户是更好的选择。
- 标普500远期市盈率为25倍，是历史平均水平的两倍，且席勒CAPE指数接近2000年泡沫峰值。
- 美国GDP增长预期仅比通胀高1-2%，历史上与较低的市场回报高度相关。
- 当前估值依赖于投机性的AI收入预期，这些预期已被计入股价且很可能令人失望。
一个年利率4%的储蓄账户，相当于市盈率（P/E）为25。
标普500指数的前瞻市盈率约为25。
标普500指数的历史年均回报率约为10%。但如今情况不同：市盈率已是历史平均水平的两倍，席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）更是超过历史均值两倍，几乎逼近2000年泡沫顶峰水平。
如果美国经济正在快速扩张，这或许还能接受，但事实并非如此。预计经济增长仅比通胀高出约1%至2%。在15到20年的周期内，GDP与标普500指数之间的相关性R²约为0.95。这与巴菲特指标密切相关，而该指标本身也表明当前股市估值之高前所未有。
基于这些指标和历史规律，未来五年标普500指数的年增长率很可能低于4%。
当前股价高度依赖对最大公司因人工智能带来的收入和利润率迅速提升的预期。然而，这种预期已基本被市场充分定价，风险巨大。企业有动机夸大和炒作人工智能的未来前景。当预期如此之高时，人们应做好失望的准备。
"A 4% interest savings account has an equivalent P/E of 25"
No it's not. That metric makes no sense on a saving account.
What part about 4% doesn't make sense to you?
Do you not understand what it means?
P/E of 25 is a 4% earnings yield
Yeah wtf does the interest rate on a CD or treasury have to do with the price earnings ratio of a company
ITT people who have no understanding of the relationship of P/E to growth expectations.
Lmaooooo
Been hearing about this for ten years.
keep it under your mattress at this point
Quit smoking
P/E is not a metric of return.
Earnings means return. Price means investment. Therefore it is a metric of return on investment.
Certainly this is a clown 🤡 statement with a clown 🤡 idea 💡. Perhaps you need to read a book or take a course or go to college.
I dont take advice from clowns.
Totally. Yet they have courage and audacity of experts
I am personally building more of a cash stockpile than usual but there are still plenty of individual stocks out there that can beat a 4% return easy.
That's literally all a savings account does
Over the next 10-12 years? IMO likely, given the correlations of subsequent historical returns to valuation, current US large cap valuations, and the more hawkish tone than anticipated from this Fed.
That said, there's currently so much liquidity sloshing about that it will find its way to other more prospective investment classes. Emerging markets, commodities and their producers, etc. There were sectors that did great from 1968-1982, and from 2000-2009, when the S&P lost 62% and 56% of its inflation adjusted value respectively (Real total returns weren't quite that bad in 1968-82 as the S&P 500 offered a 3% dividend yield. At the 2000 peak as now, yields hover just above 1%.)
A return of a stockpicker's market suits me just fine. I do better in them, and a comeuppance for momentum chasers would cheer me. That said, nearly every stock, even the undervalued ones, are trounced in the initial stages of a bubble pop, so I'm following Berkshire's lead in raising cash in SGOV, for optionality. Given the margin debt supporting this market, we could be in for quite the rollercoaster.
After so many years of outsized gains, why not? I’m getting the feeling this AI hype will need to cool off soon, and there’s literally nothing else to hang your hat on once that takes a breath.
The warning signs are everywhere you look. If the market gets a reality check, the \\bull market forever\\ echo chamber will be replaced by an equally snarky \\of course you were delusional\\ echo chamber.