r/valueinvesting
软件板块空头头寸过去一年飙升近300%，MSFT上涨70%
过去一年软件板块和MSFT空头头寸大幅飙升，MSFT作为板块做空附带损害面临下跌风险。
- 过去一年软件板块（IGV）空头头寸飙升近300%。
- 同期MSFT的空头头寸增加了约73%。
- 做空速度的加快表明科技和软件领域的看跌情绪日益增长。
有没有人注意到软件股的空头持仓数量大幅上升？
微软（MSFT）的空头持仓数量从一年前的5117万267股增加到今天的8869万6120股，增加了3752万5853股，涨幅约73%。
更离谱的是，软件板块ETF IGV在过去一年里，空头持仓从1203万1367股飙升至4765万6578股，几乎增长了300%。
这很重要，因为微软占IGV权重接近8%，换句话说，微软是软件空头交易中最大的持仓标的之一，基本上成了无辜的连带受害者。
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/msft/short-interest
有趣的是，这根本没减缓趋势，最新数据显示，空头持仓仍在加速上升。
When the sentiment changes it will be quick. Just like google last year
Google was traded at a bigger discount but I would say there were more question marks around the business as search was considered on a collision course with AI (which was a legitimate concern at the time).
I feel like Microsoft went down mostly by virtue of being labeled "software". The part which the market may be going wrong - which would also apply to Amazon - is that cloud leaders may be very well placed to help all the companies that are already users of their traditional cloud solutions deploy AI solutions and run them. They could potentially do so without even having to pay an Accenture / IBM as these companies may increasingly try to automate all that.
I also think these guys can stop buying GPUs anytime they want so if anything they wouldn't be the bag holders if AI doesn't materialise - they'll just have to amortize $25bn a year for 4 years (that's 1/5 of their Net income). Comparatively the GPU and memory stock could go from hero to zero and be completely wiped out.
SaaS in 2028 after the hyper scaling settles. I see all of it trading in a range until then
Everyone in this thread is an idiot, especially OP. The short interest is still below 2% of the float. Wallstreetbets is unironically smarter than this subreddit because even they wouldn't fall for this post
What it means is it will ripp higher sooner than later
if the short intrest has grown this significantly does it not mean the stock is expected to go down?
In principle - yes. But if the trend shifts, then we'll likely see a short squeeze. That's when all the short guys rapidly need to close their position and thus create massive demand in a short amount of time, which makes the stock price explode.
It means we have an explanation why it already has gone down.
They are growing at 18% annually, the stock is already cheap and if it is going down further, then it is not a buy-the dip opportunity? buy
MSFT has billions of shares! Meaningless amount. All stocks will have some short interest! MSFT is minting money and will continue to do so!
Let’s fucking go my bags aren’t paperweight any longer
Sometimes it does (GameStop etc.) and sometimes it doesn't (alphabet/Google etc.). Fundamentally it depends if the perception of these businesses changes again or not
1% of the float to 2% of the float is a 100% increase. We don't describe it like that because it's absurd and a nothing burger. Saying 300% is 3x!!! But 3x of 0.5% of the float is still a nothing burger..
It’s all about the depreciation of datacenters built out over the coming years. They are literally spending hundreds to a trillion dollars on datacenters. There is no way in hell they can make this money back.
the % jump sounds scary, but the base matters. msft has a massive float and deep liquidity, so a 70% jump in short interest doesn’t hit the same as it would in a small cap. i’d care more about short interest as % of float and days to cover. without that, the “squeeze” angle feels more like a headline than a real setup.