r/investing
网易持续飙升而阿里百度流血，中国科技股已不再是单一交易
中国科技股相关性正在破裂；互联网巨头落后而硬科技领涨，促使投资转向规则型ETF。
- 电池和AI芯片等硬科技和制造业板块展现出强劲的动量和领涨态势。
- 基于规则的篮子和ETF提供了一种捕捉中国科技广泛轮动的方法，避免了单一股票风险。
- 互联网巨头普遍落后和下跌，使得个股选择变得高度不可预测。
- 中国科技板块内部的子板块轮动过快且不透明，使得传统的股票分析失效。
过去几个月我一直在尝试建立一个中国科技股仓位，过程真的令人沮丧。从大约三月开始，互联网巨头（阿里巴巴、百度、京东）普遍表现疲软，而网易持续稳步上涨，腾讯则在横盘震荡。它们都是"中国科技"，但彼此之间的相关性已经完全瓦解。
让我感到意外的是，真正的动能其实转移到了哪里：宁德时代在电池领域，寒武纪在AI芯片，迈瑞医疗在医疗器械。行业领导权悄然转向了硬科技和制造业，而这恰恰是大多数主流的单一中国股票基金根本无法覆盖的部分。如果你通过互联网公司来布局"中国科技"，基本上就错过了整个行情。
正是这种认知让我放弃了挑选具体标的的尝试。当一个主题内部的子行业轮动如此迅速且难以捉摸时，选股就不再是分析，而变成了掷硬币。分清网易财报和百度财报之间差异的催化剂，对我来说根本无法提前预知。
所以我现在开始关注基于规则的组合产品。在研究过程中偶然发现了Rayliant推出的CNQQ，它包含约100只A股和港股，单一个股上限10%，并采用研发投入加权筛选。我还没买入。该基金规模不到2000万美元，成立还不到一年，所以得谨慎看待。当然，单一国家风险和监管风险依然存在。
从互联网到硬科技的轮动，才是当下中国真正的主线故事，而大多数显而易见的单一标的策略，实际上瞄准的是错误的一半。
The Chinese A - shares ETF component of my portfolio has lost around 15% YTD.
Without going into an entire essay: The Chinese internet companies are being weighed down by weak domestic consumption.
Chinese savers, plauged by the property market, are staahing their money instead of investing in the domestic A - shares equity market.
The situation is playing out similarly in the US albeit to a lesser severity: hyperscalers are punished while semis and hardware on the receiving end of the CapEx spending are being rewarded by the market.
The turning point? Fiscal policies to boost Chinese domestic consumption which hasn't yet seen strong support from the Chinese government, save for a glimmer of sign for the PBOC allowing the Yuan to strengthen and attain internationalisation. One evidence that the Chinese government has allowed the gradual strengthening of the Yuan can be seen in the structural decline of the USD against the Yuan - this is something that has been taboo.
If the Chinese government does step in to provide fiscal support thenthere will be a massive inflow of Chinese savings from savings accounts into the A - shares market.
Is cause Iam holding baba I let u guys know when Iam selling