r/valueinvesting
MU 周三发布财报，仅仅超预期可能已经不够了
MU 年内已涨 280%，仓位拥挤；财报仅超预期可能无法维持当前估值，暗示周期见顶。
- 前瞻市盈率不到 10 倍，PEG 为 0.34，表面看估值便宜。
- 年内涨幅达 280%，且近期因无关宏观消息单日暴涨 11%，表明仓位拥挤而非基本面增强。
- 较低的前瞻市盈率和 PEG 依赖于激进的盈利预期上调，使其成为误导性的价值信号。
- 仅仅超预期并上调指引可能无法维持当前估值，而谨慎的指引可能暗示上行周期见顶，导致不成比例的下行风险。
MU 周三发布财报，这可能是近期少数一次仅靠业绩超预期却难以推动股价的情况。
该股今年迄今已上涨约280%。两周前，因与公司无关的宏观消息，单日涨幅接近11%。当一只股票因无关新闻大幅波动时，这反映的是仓位过度集中，而非基本面逻辑增强。
市盈率（TTM）约为46倍，前瞻市盈率则低于10倍。这一差距只有在盈利增速达到华尔街最激进分析师预测水平时才能缩小。目前市盈率增长比（PEG）为0.34，表面看似乎便宜，但这个比率中的“E”值本月已被大幅上调，与股价同步走高。因此，该数值反映的更多是分析师此前已过于兴奋的情绪，而非独立可靠的信号。
我的看法（仅供参考）：若此次业绩超预期且上调指引，可能仅能维持当前估值水平。若表现不及预期，哪怕季度数据尚可但指引偏谨慎，市场很可能会解读为上行周期见顶，届时股价回调幅度将远超实际差错所应导致的范围。
如果我持有该股，不会卖出；但也不会在此位置加仓。很乐意听听大家的看法。
They will report 80% yoy and endless demand that will take at least a decade to fulfill.
NVDA reported 80% YoY and their stock dropped after earnings. 🤔
I didnt say if it will go up or down. In just saying thats what they will report. But eventually, 5k
a beat is already priced in. i’m expecting a correction after, and will add a small amount more there
^ this, should be a nice entry point
It would be so hilarious if it popped up 30%.
MU will be $2k eoy
5k, you re too pessimistic
I was thinkin 8k
10 million.
Apple is literally moving up their prices because they don’t see this storm stopping anytime soon.
Youre just salty. Up up n away while adbe drops 15%
There’s a chance the beat is above even the most aggressive analyst forecasts. Guidance too. It’s strange people on reddit keep focusing on a potential mini-correction, but ignore the risk this jumps another 15%
It’s because of the crazy run it has had in the last few months that people are concerned and rightfully so. Because micron has no room for errors or misses
Higher valuations = higher expectations priced in
At some point the treadmill starts spinning too fast for even the highest quality company to exceed expectations