我们对 FVRR 怎么看？

Among all the things that are threatened by AI, things like fiver and mechanical turk have to be the most vulnerable.

Wouldn't invest in a middleman like this if you paid me to.

I think your cash & equivalents numbers are wrong. Real number was closer to $242M for cash + securities in their last annual report. I suspect your error is you included user funds held by Fiverr (~$160M) as “cash”.

This is common in financial stocks where company’s hold users money in an account so you need to be careful picking apart their asset values.

Fiver offer low quality shit and AI do a better job creating low quality shit

As a ex-fiver user, talking with those seller can take 10x as much time as using AI….

it's a dying business, as hard as they are trying to revive it.

(aside: that covid-driven rise from $30 to $300 in just 1 year should look familiar to everyone driving up the stock price of AI adjacent stocks; the subsequent crash from $300 to $10 should serve as a cautionary tale for the same investors).

upwork is much better

also this isn't a great argument, but i've never seen an israel-listed company serve investors well long-term.

This is the classic negative-EV setup, and it's seductive for good reason — but the cushion

only does what you think if two things hold, and I'd nail both before trusting the

"guaranteed upside" framing:

1. The cash has to not be melting. Net cash > market cap is only a margin of safety if the

business isn't burning that cash. So the first number I'd pull is free cash flow: is FVRR

still generating cash, or slowly eroding the pile? A declining business with positive FCF is

a cigar butt you get paid to hold; one that's burning cash closes its own "negative EV" the

wrong way, quarter by quarter.

2. The buyback and cash have to be real, not SBC laundering. This is the one that kills a lot

of these tech "they're buying back stock!" theses — check stock-based comp as a % of revenue

and whether diluted share count is actually falling. If the $57m buyback is mostly mopping up

SBC dilution, it's treading water, not returning value, and that "cash" is partly tomorrow's

dilution sitting on today's balance sheet.

On the business itself — I think the thesis hand-waves the real risk. A 13% user decline in a

marketplace whose core was high-volume standardized tasks (logos, simple copy, basic dev) is

the leading edge of exactly the AI disruption you mentioned, not a one-off. The "repivot to

complex implementations" is a genuinely hard pivot most marketplaces fail — so "pretty

guaranteed upside" is doing a lot of work for what's really an unproven turnaround. A melting

ice cube with a pile of cash still melts; the bet is whether the melt stops before the cash

does.

None of that says it's a bad situation — negative-EV cigar butts can absolutely work. It just

means the bet isn't "modest growth + free cash," it's "does revenue stabilize before the cash

erodes, and does that cash actually reach me." Before sizing it I'd want: FCF trend, SBC and

share-count trend, take-rate vs active-buyer trend (are they propping revenue by squeezing

take rate, which can accelerate churn?), and management's history of returning cash vs sitting

on it.

What's your read on the cash erosion rate — is FCF still positive, or is the clock ticking on

the cushion?

fvrr has a pro level that give access to top tier workers and project management. i don't think everyone realizes that. people have used fvrr casually almost, but it can be leveraged really well... and they always refund your money if you aren't happy. I like fvrr, have invested in the past, but the market just doesn't want any part of it. I think until they can rebrand as AI adjacent project management... they are gonna be stuck. I've used them for engineering, solar design, architectural drawings, blueprints, of course logos and branding... I think if you can find a good team lead to work with or multiples of that you can easily leverage fiverr and build a good business. Market hasn't gotten the memo.

The cash-over-MC setup is genuinely interesting, but the bear case isn't just declining users, it's whether management burns that cash cushion trying to pivot before the market forces a return of capital. Worth watching what they actually do with the buyback authorization before sizing in.