r/valueinvesting
不受欢迎的观点：购买市值超1万亿美元的公司不算价值投资
作者认为万亿市值公司对散户没有信息优势，真正的价值在于被忽视的小盘股。
- 真正的错误定价存在于分拆股和小盘股等被忽视的领域。
- 散户可以在低覆盖度的情况下找到投资优势。
- 万亿市值公司被分析师高度覆盖，散户毫无优势可言。
- 买入大盘共识股违背了价值投资的初衷。
是的，一家市值一万亿的公司也可以交易价格低于内在价值。巴菲特买入AAPL时的市盈率大约是10倍。规模并不会让某样东西变得昂贵。
但那并不是我们的优势所在。一家市值一万亿的公司有40位分析师覆盖，每家基金都在建模分析，数百万散户紧盯每一次财报发布。你发现他们全都忽略的东西的概率几乎为零。买入大型股的共识，并不是价值投资原本的含义。
对大多数散户投资者来说，好公司以合理价格买入，并非价值真正所在。
真正的错价存在于被忽视的地方。那些没人重新定价的分拆公司、只有两位分析师覆盖的2亿美元市值股票、美国投资者通常不会关注的海外上市标的、以及NCAV（净流动资产价值）情形。这才是真正需要付出努力才能收获回报的地方。
这个社区是网上少数仍有人坚持做这种工作的地方。这里的讨论无价可估。我唯一希望看到更多的是小盘股。
你怎么看？
对于那些确实去挖掘小盘股的朋友：你们在哪里找到它们？目前清单上有哪些标的？
Disagree. Check GOOG in the past 2 years
Made a lot of money off Google scare now I’m heavy meta
Disagree. No absolutes in investing. Need to look at valuation relative to earnings and growth rate. Companies over 1T can be a bargain just as companies under 1M can be expensive.
There are multiple reasons why a company can be undervalued.
more reasons that a random redditor will be unable to price the stock more accurately than the market. you can safely assume that these stocks trade at fair value, and that any percieved edge over the market is more likely just pure delusion than investment skill.
mispricing sometimes dont come from stocks that no one covers. everyone covered nvidia before 2023 blow out earnings and all the sellside got their estimates wrong.
I’d say you’re right. All companies with 100b plus market cap have to be efficient. Too many eyes on it.
But a company with 1 trillion making 100b profit per year would be a great deal imo. Even if never grows and keeps stable it’s 10% a year profit. I know you don’t get that directly from dividends but you get one way or another (dividends or cash in company aka appreciation of the company)
10 p/e looks cheap, but only if the profits are real and can keep showing up. otherwise it’s just bait.
you buy when they are disconnected, like meta rn
What the fk Are you saying? So Google and Microsoft are conglomerates with 20% revenue growth and their businesses is itself like combination of many many good businesses. You think it is mom and pop shop?
Guaranteed Buffett wouldn't be investing in these mega caps if he only had $1M to manage.
L take
Probably not, or they wouldn’t be asking for this sub’s take.
But that’s not where our edge is.
You think institutions have who people, whose life work has been to learn how to evaluate businesses, working full time to find businesses that are undervalued, don't have the time, knowledge, and discipline that we do to find sub-trillion value businesses?
It's easy to pick good value stocks. It's hard to pick good ones that are going to be successful long enough to outlast market noise/hype cycles.
A lot of people's successful "value stocks" are actually just stocks that were fairly valued that are now overvalued. Real value investing success happens when the stock is still discounted 10 years later, but the company's earnings have outpaced the market so much that it's new undervalued price still beats the market.
I partially agree but the framing needs nuance. "Value investing" isn't about the price tag — it's about the gap between price and intrinsic value.A $1T company trading at 15x forward earnings with 20% revenue growth and expanding margins can be cheaper than a $5B company trading at 8x earnings with declining revenue and structural headwinds.Look at META in early 2023: it was a $350B company that everyone called "dead money." Turned out to be one of the best value plays of the decade because the market was pricing in permanent margin compression that never materialized.The real issue with mega-caps isn't the valuation — it's the concentration risk and the assumption that terminal growth rates stay elevated. When you buy a $1T+ company, you're implicitly assuming:1) The moat holds for 10+ years2) Capex cycles pay off3) Regulatory risk stays manageableGet any of those wrong and you're holding a value trap at scale. But get them right and the compounding is real.I'd rather own a reasonably priced $1T company with a clear moat than a "cheap" small-cap with no competitive advantage.