新范式：科技巨头从轻资产向重资产的转变

At some point open source and more local AI agents will be "good enough" for most use, im finding myself not even needing the best models anymore because the ones that are abit cheaper and just one step behind is more than good enough for most normal usage. Thats when we will see the insane hardware spiral slow down, thats when OpenAi and Anthropic levels out. I think commoditization of intelligence will make software companies be able to avoid hiring and can continue to deliver products. Saas companies is what im buying now.

The asset-light to asset-heavy transition is the most underappreciated shift in mega-cap investing right now.Historically, tech companies were valued on high margins + low capex = infinite scalability. That model is breaking. The AI build-out requires real physical infrastructure: data centers, GPUs, power contracts, cooling systems.Look at the capex trajectory:- MSFT: ~$80B capex in FY2026, up from ~$30B two years ago- META: ~$40B, doubling year over year- GOOGL: ~$75B including data center buildout- AMZN: ~$100B across AWS + logisticsThis changes the valuation framework. When capex is 30-40% of revenue, you need to model depreciation curves, useful life assumptions, and return on incremental invested capital. These are industrial company metrics applied to tech.The bull case: this capex creates durable infrastructure moats that competitors can't replicate. The bear case: if AI demand doesn't materialize at scale, you're left with massive overcapacity and margin compression.The key question for value investors: are we pricing these like asset-light software companies or asset-heavy infrastructure companies? Because the answer changes the fair value by 30-40%.

I prefer this over stock buy backs. But I value innovation and the risk involved.

It is more than just a balance sheet issue. A capital-intensive business is fundamentally different from a capital-light business. Key functions such as procurement, planning, project management are just fundamentally different.

It is obvious to me that some of these companies are showing their inexperience and they're treating this physical capital expansion they same way they do software development, which is almost the exact opposite of good capital management practices.

So the real question isn't balance sheet, but which of these companies have competence in capital investment?

Excellent! Keep up the good work!

Well, sorry, but I don't see it. Anyways, good luck to you too.

OK OK let's not play wordgames. Do you believe that megacaps are correctly priced based on their new capex spend or not? Do you think they deserve the current valuation?

I think the Capex spending will inevitably scale down - otherwise the margins are going to shrink (valuation is going to start to look bad). There might have been some over-investment too if the AI models or data centers are to be improved. Some bumps on the road are too be expected

But at the same time, it's important for the hyper scalers to not miss the AI train. And they most certainly have many ways to utilize good AI integration.

At the end of the day, all this expensive gear will only deepen the moat around big tech services IMO...

i think the whole token system is going to throttle mega caps spending companies are starting to look to Chinese a.i models as there tokens are cheaper in the long run it wont be about who has the most data centers or best models it will whoever is offering a adequate product at a cheap price.

Apple, as many small business learn to host their own local llms on Mac mini.

All of the companies you mentioned can afford it. They are the largest, more profitable companies in the world.