r/valueinvesting
$RDDT 并未被低估。别落入陷阱。
作者认为 $RDDT 被高估，因其广告质量差、受众有限，且数据定向能力远不及 META 和 GOOGL。
- 广告商反馈效果差且难以扩大规模，原因是美国日活有限且小众版块受众规模小。
- 由于缺乏深度、已登录的用户数据，其广告定向能力落后；版块访问数据不能等同于购买意向。
- 广告质量被认为充满垃圾信息且无关紧要，无法有效服务高端品牌。
最近我在本版看到不少$RDDT的多头。
$RDDT多头的主要论点，基于对这家公司业务的根本性误解。
$RDDT多头错误地认为，Reddit用户是Reddit的主要客户。事实并非如此，广告商才是Reddit的主要客户。
即使Reddit在你看来比Twitter好太多，广告商也毫不在意。
你作为平台用户的感受毫无意义。无论是支持特朗普的右翼笨蛋，还是高学历的科技高管，对广告商而言都只是可供投放广告的“眼球”而已。
所以我们应该关注广告质量。事实上，Reddit的广告质量并不比Twitter/X更好。Reddit上99%的广告都无关紧要，大多数广告看起来和感觉起来就像垃圾邮件。就连iPhone这类高端品牌广告，也显得像垃圾广告，几乎和Google AdSense广告一模一样。
广告商报告称，效果惨淡，无法规模化复制成功，因为可触达的受众群体实在太小。这毫不意外——Reddit在美国只有5000万日活跃用户，而真正具有商业价值的细分版块（subreddits）大多规模极小。
Reddit的广告定向能力极差。它的广告定向能力甚至不如Twitter/X，原因在于两者都没有足够的用户数据，而Reddit更甚，因为用户大多未登录。
Reddit可以通过用户访问的版块来追踪兴趣并收集用户数据，这本应是广告商最看重的核心优势。然而，即便在上市三年后，这一策略仍未证明有效。原因其实很简单：版块访问行为并不能等同于购买意愿。版块访问根本无法替代真实的用户购买意图数据。要获得这种深度数据，你需要了解用户的一切，而不仅仅是他看了哪些版块。在这个世界里，只有Google和META拥有如此深度的用户数据。可惜的是，人们永远不会让Reddit知道他们的真实身份。
那数据授权业务呢？Reddit或许手握大量数据，但这些数据并不值钱，因为任何人都能获取。举个例子：2021年，Twitter在AI时代之前就靠数据授权实现了5亿美元的收入。人们为何愿意付费？因为他们别无选择，只能通过Twitter获取数据。而如今，除了AI公司外，没人愿意为Reddit的数据付费，这简直令人震惊，也充分暴露了Reddit数据价值的脆弱性。
更糟糕的是，Anthropic和Perplexity等AI公司正通过第三方大规模抓取Reddit数据，而Reddit对此束手无策。它之所以允许这种情况发生，是因为它必须依赖Google搜索来获取流量——而Google搜索贡献了其超过一半的用户访问量。Reddit甚至需要起诉Anthropic才能维护自身权利，这恰恰说明它只能依靠法律手段保护数据，而这种保护方式极其脆弱。
我还没说到Reddit业务面临的其他严重风险：
- 极度依赖Google搜索
- 机器人发布的评论/帖子正变得越来越难以与真人区分，未来可能完全无法区分
- SBC失控且股东权利薄弱（多数投票权掌握在管理层手中），最终可能沦为下一个SNAP
如果你还认为$RDDT是一家市值1000亿美元的公司，请换个角度思考：从广告商而非用户视角重新审视。在埃隆收购前，Twitter的日活用户数高于Reddit，巅峰时期估值也不过440亿美元。而如今Reddit日活更低，却仍被估值330亿美元，上涨空间极为有限。没错，Reddit目前盈利，而Twitter不盈利。但从此刻起的未来回报率实在低得可怜。以当前股价计算，$RDDT最多只能算个年复合增长10%的股票。我宁愿直接持有$MSFT或$META，它们的风险收益比远优于$RDDT。
Yeah OP doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
As someone who decides channel mix and spends six figures on Reddit ads, it’s important to understand diminishing returns on ad channels. You can’t just dump your whole budget into your most effective channel. You have to have a mix to reach different audiences at scale. And Reddit over the last couple years has actually made their ad platform better and it’s performed well for us. Not as good as Google, Instagram and Facebook, but well enough to justify continued spend.
I dont agree with your take since I view some of the problems you raise more as opportunities. I think the market is pricing Reddit for the scenario you’ve laid out where their ARPU flatlines. I think Reddit can improve ad quality and targeting. AI should make it easier than ever to do that.
As a side note, you’ve laid out a respectable counterargument (including some ARPU benchmarks) that I believe is more thought out than 99% of posts in this subreddit, which is filled with either AI slop or based entirely on vibes. Yet you’re being downvoted. Just goes to show the quality of this sub.
Strong points
1. Reddit’s ad machine is nowhere near Meta’s
I agree.
Meta knows:
Who you are.
Your demographics.
Your social graph.
What you buy.
Which ads converted.
Reddit mostly knows:
What communities you browse.
What content you engage with.
Those are very different datasets.
Meta’s targeting moat is vastly larger.
2. Google dependence is real
This is one of the biggest risks.
A large portion of discovery comes from Google search. If AI search changes traffic patterns or Google changes rankings, Reddit gets hurt.
That’s a genuine bear case.
3. Governance/SBC concerns
Fair.
Dual-class shares and heavy SBC can absolutely limit shareholder returns.
Where I think the argument is weak
“Advertisers don’t care about user quality”
This is the biggest flaw.
Advertisers absolutely care about context.
Someone reading:
r/HomeImprovement
r/Running
r/PCMasterRace
r/Bogleheads
is signaling intent.
A user spending two hours reading GPU threads is much more valuable to Nvidia than some random Twitter scroller arguing politics.
Intent matters.
Google Search became a giant business largely because intent matters.
“Subreddit visits cannot substitute for purchase intent”
Not entirely true.
Subreddits are basically self-selected interest graphs.
A guy hanging around:
r/espresso
r/rolex
r/golf
is practically telling advertisers who he is.
Reddit has much less identity data than Meta, but much richer semantic data.
AI actually makes extracting those signals easier.
“Data isn’t valuable because everyone can scrape it”
This misses something important. The raw text is public.
But:
historical archives,
embeddings,
metadata,
user relationships,
moderation layers,
real-time firehose,
are harder to reproduce.
Google’s index is public too—you can visit webpages yourself—but Google’s index is still incredibly valuable.
Comparing to Twitter’s $44B acquisition
Twitter ≠ Reddit.
Twitter had:
celebrities,
politics,
news,
outrage.
Reddit has:
search intent,
product discussions,
hobbies,
recommendations,
long-form conversations.
Very different assets. Twitter was a real-time broadcast network. Reddit is almost a giant interest graph and knowledge base.
The biggest thing you miss: Reddit as an advertising business only.
I think the bull thesis is:
Reddit is becoming the anti-slop layer of the internet.
People increasingly append: “reddit” to every Google query because they want human opinions. That asset may become more valuable in an AI world, not less.
Potential monetization avenues:
Ads.
AI licensing.
Search.
Commerce.
Recommendations.
Premium communities.
Agents using Reddit data.
AI-assisted shopping.
The market isn’t paying 33B because of today’s ad business.
It’s paying for the possibility that Reddit becomes the internet’s human knowledge layer.
What would actually break bull case?
Not this post.
Things that would worry me much more:
1. DAU growth stalls below \~20%.
Then the TAM may be smaller than expected.
2. Ad load reaches saturation without ARPU improvement.
Then Reddit really is just Twitter with smaller scale.
3. Google traffic declines and internal discovery fails.
4. AI Overviews remove Reddit clicks.
5. Meta or Google successfully recreate community search with AI.
Interestingly, you assumes:
“Reddit users are not customers, advertisers are.”
I think that framing itself may be wrong.
Google’s users aren’t customers either, yet Google’s value came from organizing information.
Really well thought out response. I agree with your assessment. I think the only risk is #4 at the bottom of your post - to which Reddit has an easy lever to pull. Force login and/or Charge Google a very high amount to include its data in the AI summaries. I think reddit will go that route eventually, but it’s working with Google for now because they’re still in phase of growing awareness of the platform. Eventually it will hit critical mass where the greater value isn’t in getting more users but rather extracting more revenue per user.
Literally no one thinks Reddit is a b2c company. Everyone knows it’s an advertising company just like all the other socials. Reddit is very unique in its structure compared to others and the success of the company is entirely reliant on them being able to leverage that unique structure for ads.
Because this is a new era where AI needs data and social data is a never ending treasure trove of changing consumer sentiment - goods, politics, hobbies, technology, media. There is greater monetization opportunity now
Funny. The people I talk to in consulting and using Reddit data all say it’s the best source of social sentiment because of the data structure. So people paying for it a si sing the data to build an sell consumer research disagree
There are entire civilizations where WhatsApp is essential infrastructure and they contribute very little to meta's bottom line
Perfect buy signal
So if you think you’re smart enough to identify and filter out AI slop what makes you think that can’t be codified into the data and you’re still left with a valuable dataset of consumer sentiment? What makes it any different from Meta in that regard?
Don't care about your ai slop..my mom who barely knows how to use a TV remote the other day references someone on reddit talking about some dumb thing
Reddit used to be only for Internet sleuths and incels. Then it became more mainstream to general millennial/z. Now boomers are realizing it has value
This makes me bullish on reddit actually. Sounds like there is plenty of room for improvement and growth. Was that your sneaky intent OP?
Do you have any practical response to this point? I feel that international growth is indeed a point worth focusing on, and I would like to hear everyone's thoughts.
They are that’s why revenue is growing