r/options
Micron 周二发财报，预期感觉高得离谱，有人紧张吗？
作者在 MU 财报前保持空仓，认为预期过高、存在 IV 暴跌风险，且对毛利率持久性和 HBM 总潜在市场增长存疑。
好，MU 会在 24 号公布 FY26Q3 的业绩，市场共识数据简直离谱。
营收预期高达 354.3 亿美元，而他们自己给出的指引是 335 亿美元。如果相信华尔街的数据，这相当于同比增长 281%。毛利率预计达到 81.8%，净利润预期为 236.6 亿美元，相当于同比暴涨 1155%，笑死。
最近几周我在 moomoo 上一直关注这只股票，隐含波动率（IV）已经飙到 114%，且正 gamma 堆积明显。换句话说，交易商基本上在封顶行情，除非出现重大意外，否则不会让股价大幅突破。
我一直纠结的问题是：
非 AI 内存的价格一直在支撑毛利率表现。这种势头真的可持续吗？还是说只要库存一堆积，我们就要把这波利润还回去？
据传 2026 年的资本开支将超过 250 亿美元。历史上每一次内存周期的终结，都是因为有人过度扩产。这次怎么就不同了？
管理层一直在暗示 HBM 市场规模将从 2025 年的 350 亿美元增长到 2028 年的约 1000 亿美元。如果管理层在电话会上不提高长期 HBM 的指引，我觉得就算业绩超预期，股价也会直接崩盘。
说实话，这局面让我想起去年英伟达发布财报时的情况——当时光靠一个业绩符合预期根本不够，必须要有指引上调和 TAM 扩张才能稳住股价。这次干净的超预期也撑不住。
我目前空仓进场。之前追高半导体股在财报发布前被套过。有谁真能扛住的吗？如果有，你是拿着股票，还是用期权拉长头寸？毕竟隐含波动率暴跌会非常狠。
With IV this high, I’d rather own shares than pay up for calls unless I had very strong conviction on the call (which is not the case lol). Otherwise IV crush and profit-taking can easily outweigh a decent print.
Their forward PE is pretty low and they have a lock on DRAM unlike SNDK.
At 114% IV the chain is pricing a move in the high teens percent, so the real question is not direction, it is whether you clear the implied move plus the vol crush. Long single calls are the worst structure into a print like this because IV collapses the morning after and you can be right on direction and still bleed. If you want leveraged upside, a call debit spread is more honest here. The short leg you sell is just as inflated, so it funds a chunk of the crush instead of leaving you long pure vega. Shares sidestep the IV reset entirely and just take the directional bet. And your read on needing a guide raise plus a TAM raise is the right frame. When the implied move is this rich, a clean beat that only meets expectations usually still resolves lower because the premium sellers get paid.
What are are your thoughts on DRAM LEAPS which contains a quarter percent of MU. Im up 135 percent on June 2027 LEAPS calls for 80k strike. Bought at $11 per option and is now at $28 Im debating holding through this earnings and opening another higher strike position after earnings since the consensus is that theres a good chance of an IV crush. My thinking is my original position will recover well before the expiration since its more diversified than just MU.
It’s up 66% in the last month. Bring on the “correction”. Yawn. See you at 1500 in July.
One thing you can count on, the report will be scrutinized for any reason to drive the price down.
Isn't that the case with every earning for every company? 🤔
in 24 months whether you like it or not the value will be x3 higher easily. I have never seen such huge demand and limited supply
Wednesday?
More likely to drop than pop IMO
That might be why it pops. Expectations are negative pre earnings.
Hello regard, he means the memory components not the ETF
More likely to dump, but i’m still holding. Too poor to sell cc or i would with this IV
???
Valid points. I expect it to dip, which means I’ll buy more