1567%

r/options· u/MochiHill· 6 天前 30

MU 周二发财报且隐含波动率处于第 98 百分位，还有人感到紧张吗？

投资者摘要中性

MU 财报预期与 HBM 潜在市场极高，但巨额资本支出与创纪录的隐含波动率使持仓过财报风险巨大。

看多要点

市场一致预期营收将大幅超预期，净利润同比增长 1155%。
管理层有望上调 HBM 总潜在市场目标，可能引发整个板块暴涨。

看空要点

巨额资本支出引发对经典内存周期供过于求陷阱的担忧。
极高的期权隐含波动率已定价巨大波动，即使超预期也可能面临见光死大跌。

MU SNDK财报季半导体AI 资本开支

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

美光将在24号公布财年第三季度业绩，目前的预期看起来相当疯狂。市场预期营收为354亿美元，高于公司指引的335亿美元；毛利率共识为81.8%，净利润同比几乎飙升1,155%。这些数字根本不像正常情况。

整个星期我都在moomoo社区关注这件事，看多观点反复回到一个核心问题：管理层会不会真的上调HBM市场规模预测？他们之前提到2025年约350亿美元，2028年目标约1,000亿美元，如果能进一步上调，整个存储产业链很可能直接起飞。如果没上调，即使业绩超预期，我也认为这波行情会迅速消退。

让我担心的是资本开支。FY26已预估超过250亿美元，FY27据说还会更大。感觉又陷入了经典的存储周期陷阱——大家还都开心着，直到有人悄悄说出产能过剩的警告。

期权隐含波动率高达114，处于98百分位水平。跨式期权正在定价一场巨幅波动。上周我小仓位买入了一些股份，但面对这么高的溢价，实在没勇气加仓。

有几个问题我真想知道：

非HBM内存能否维持当前的高利润率，还是说这才是真正的软肋？

有没有人用价差策略玩这个标的，而不是直接裸买看涨/看跌期权？

如果$MU暴涨，$SNDK会不会跟涨，还是会继续被遗忘？

说实话，我现在纠结是减仓落袋为安，还是干脆不动。还有人和我一样拿着不放吗？

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/rcmtt 33· 6 天前

MU earnings are Wednesday after the close.

u/katsudon-jpz 18· 6 天前

I expect it to dip as people take profit, then shoot back on Friday

u/TooDamagedToLove 4· 6 天前

This

Sell the News! Great news? Sell asap cause MM’s will and they’ll crater the price and the buy the dip.

u/51674 3· 6 天前

Unless they pull a nvidia, everyone thought there was no way it can go up every earning and it did

u/Glum-Basis-9076 11· 6 天前

Earnings will be announced right after the Wednesday close, but we'll also have inflation data released Thursday morning before market open. Worth taking that into account.

u/I_HopeThat_WasFart 8· 6 天前

there is a very good chance this pulls an AVGO

Any slight guidance the street does not like will tank this hard from its massive rally and entire index will drop for a week

China possibly being soft on MU (25% of its revenue)

CAPEX required without the revenue in place

LOTS of risk on this earnings

u/YouFknDummy 4· 6 天前

Yahoo says earnings are on Wednesday the 24 but yeah I'm not holding my calls through that

u/Quintuple_Sect97 3· 5 天前

What i see in MU is that it's one of the most volatile earnings stocks in the S&P 500. Looking at the last 16 quarters, the 3-day post-earnings move has been ≥8% in 43% of events — that includes +21.7% (Mar 2024), +22.6% (Dec 2025), but also -13.6% (Dec 2024) and -12.4% (Mar 2026). The median move is 6%, p75 is 11%.

I would be nervous too.

u/Glum-Basis-9076 3· 6 天前

The pce will release Thursday the 25th at 8:30am Eastern time zone.

u/donicatrumpinsky 2· 6 天前

He mentioned Moomoos. They actually have a really decent options analysis page!

u/HelpfulNobody 2· 6 天前

Shorting the crap outa it.

u/No-Test-4028 3· 6 天前

Be sure to post the results.

u/mathaiser 2· 6 天前

I mean, it’s still money you could lose. Don’t count the chickens in your basket. Everyone that owns this right now, whether you’re 1000% in profit or 1% still needs to make a conscious choice. Every day you hold, you’re saying “would I buy this at this price” and if the answer is no, you should sell and keep your money.

u/riverdancejeff 2· 6 天前

The put call ration on Nvidia’s last earnings was bullish and it beat and the stock tanked… the put call ration is bearish going into earnings for MU. MU is going to have a massive beat so… to the moon?

u/HurtsWhenISee 2· 6 天前

Show it pictures and it becomes more aware.

在 Reddit 查看原帖与全部评论 ↗