r/tqqq
NumerousFloor - TQQQ 战争基金 - 2026年6月22日
作者更新TQQQ投资组合，自23年2月以来CAGR达78.9%，但指出卖出的看涨期权和保护的看跌期权存在较大浮亏。
这周没怎么关注。
TQQQ 储备金当前价值：770万美元。相比2025年为290万美元，2024年为190万美元，2023年为39.7万美元。
TQQQ 股票——每周小幅买入。当前市场价值为598万美元。
TQQQ 长期看涨期权（保护性）——行权价70美元，到期日为1月27日。预计将在7月初滚动至1月28日到期，除非QQQ暴跌。
现金储备：缓慢增长，但一旦我滚动长期看涨期权，就会被大幅压缩。
QQQ 看跌期权空头头寸——已恢复满额暴露。将持续滚动。
TQQQ 认购期权（CCs）——彻底灾难。
期权总盈亏（QQQ看跌期权空头 + TQQQ认购期权 - TQQQ看涨期权）：目前约为27.5万美元。TQQQ看涨期权账面价值为75.2万美元，因此我目前处于约47.5万美元的亏损状态。这个巨大的亏损需要逐步消化。
TQQQ 衣柜里的骷髅：这些骷髅已经变得极其庞大，衣柜几乎要撑爆了。目前空头看涨期权持仓包括：1月27日到期、行权价50美元（200份合约）、60美元（80份合约）、65美元（120份合约），以及9月18日/26日到期、行权价60美元（320份合约）。
总结一下：自2月23日起，我一直采用TQQQ动态对冲+EDCA+现金对冲策略：
自2月23日起，我的TQQQ投资累计年化收益率（XIRR法计算）：78.9%
Nice, glad to see you are getting close to $10 million. This is an amazing journey I have watched since the beginning. Congrats. Makes me want to try something similar.
Thanks brother! I'm not really that close to $10m though as I have no plans to sell during these frothy times.
The puts should keep me from dropping much below $6m though, no matter what happens. Super pumped about that.
I am a bit worried about my cash hoard, though. I think, eventually, I'll run out of cash and will have to cannibalize my TQQQ shares to finance the insurance. I did predict that would happen, but it's strange to see it crystallizing on the horizon.
This guy is a fucking dawg
You should release a guide or start a skool community for 50-100/mo and use that money to buy more TQQQ
haha, yeah, i can call it the 'blind leading the blind' investing academy -- such wow! much success! 😂😂
lol do it for free then pls
TQQQ long (protective) puts - $70 strike, Jan/27 exp. Will probably roll out to Jan/28 exp in early July, unless QQQ plummets.
What is the benefit of roll out during July 2026 (Jan/28).
If I am right, this may be expensive when you roll out in July 2026 than rolling out one week before Jan 27th expiry. Again, it depends on volatility and other factors.
Also, you need to find out what is best to roll out month to month or quarterly to quarterly. I do not know how big institutions or big holders practice such roll out.
Consult some option experts, you can see at options or wsb blogs, when to roll out the protective put options so that you incur less cost and also get benefit in case of drawdowns before Jan 27 expiry.
BTW: I am not expert in options, but has some basic ideas about options.
Ah, it's cheaper to roll to Jan/28 now vs Dec, 2026 and I want to buy time so I can make a considered decision whether to get out.
This is my summary of the reasoning for long dated puts:
Why the 12+ month expiration for the puts? It’s very expensive.
The main reason for long dated puts is to avoid a port killer drawdown and give you time to assess the situation to avoid ‘false positive’ port killers. That is, more time to identify V shaped recoveries. If TQQQ recovers quickly, then your holdings weren’t truly in jeopardy. You want to avoid the -80% or -90%+ drawdowns like 99-02, 07-09 and even 21-22. Those ‘zeroing events’ are insanely damaging to long term success with LETFs.
If you look at past QQQ drawdowns, the real port killer events like 99-02, 07-09 and 21-22 take time to develop; at least 4-5 months. Buying cheaper, shorter dated puts might tempt you to exit via your puts only to have the markets reverse and charge upward (eg. like Q4 2018, Mar-Apr/2020 COVID or Apr/2025 Trump tariff scare V shaped recoveries).
You want to be well into a drawdown, such that the QQQ 200d SMA is well below your put strike, before deciding to sell your puts and liquidate your position. You want assurance, in as much as that’s possible, that the QQQ Golden Cross (my chosen re-entry point, good or bad) will occur at a price that is below your put strike. Buying time with a 1 yr expiration is one way to make that happen.
Look at the 99-02 data for QQQ. If you bought a 12 m exp put in Mar/00, near the peak, it would still have 6m remaining by the time the QQQ Death Cross occurred. If you held a shorter dated exp, like 3m, you might have sold it sometime before expiry and re-entered TQQQ (if it existed) during one of the bull traps. You would have gotten absolutely destroyed over the rest of 2000 all the way to Sept/02.
If I had a 12m exp TQQQ put (if it existed) in Mar/00, I would have gotten out sometime after the death cross (mid-2000) and not re-entered TQQQ with that money (would have constantly DCA’d though) until the QQQ Golden Cross (Jan/03).
The GFC in 2007-2009 also took time to develop. Most of the drop occurred after the failure of Lehman brothers.
The TL:DR is that port killer bear markets take time to develop and there are a lot of false positives along the way. False positives are an opportunity to DCA. They are great. Port killer bears are not great. You need long dated puts to more reliably discern between a false positive V shaped recovery and a port killer bear.
Great response, always love seeing the updates
I have July 2 86 call with 4.45 premium.....am I cooked or will MU earnings possibly salvage ?
He sells shorter term QQQ puts to partially pay for the longer term TQQQ puts he buys.
Yes, exactly. I may get punished for it, but that's what I'm doing.
i imagine managing the calls would get very complicated but it would have worked very well if i had done that, yes.
Are you worried about the added risk of using short putts to finance the long putts, doesn't that sort of defeat the purpose of hedging?
Would the best way to start this strategy be to sell puts until assignment? or buy shares and immediately buy long-dated puts and sell shorter dated calls.
Thanks!
Yes I am worried 😂
Selling puts until assignment is an idea, but I’m only buying 1 contract per week and I don’t like the time requirement. When it dips hard, I want to strike, not wait til Friday to see if puts are ITM
I’m trying to sell calls but keep getting fucked 😂