r/valueinvesting
Smith & Nephew (SNN) 怎么样？
作者考虑买入 SNN，因其估值具吸引力、自由现金流改善且注重股东回报，尽管存在利润率和关税担忧。
- 估值具吸引力，前瞻市盈率约13倍，市现率约15倍，自由现金流收益率达7%。
- 通过2.6%的股息和超4亿英镑的新回购计划提供强劲的股东回报。
- 运营状况改善，自由现金流增至6.35亿英镑，杠杆降至1.7倍EBITDA，并获Cevian增持支持。
- 盈利能力落后于同行，16%的营业利润率和较低的资本回报率均不及其他医疗器械公司。
- 面临中国大规模制造的竞争风险以及2026年预计6000万美元的关税成本。
我最近在研究 Smith & Nephew，正考虑在当前价格（约1113便士）附近建仓。
有几个点让我印象深刻。股价仍远低于2021年的水平，但估值并不算高。市盈率（Forward P/E）约为13倍，股价/自由现金流（Price/FCF）约15倍，自由现金流收益率接近7%。
目前公司也显得相当重视股东回报。有股息（约2.6%），还有新推出的超过4亿英镑的股票回购计划，两者合计返还的资本水平相当可观。
从运营角度看，情况也在改善。过去几年自由现金流从约4亿英镑增长至6.35亿英镑，利润率朝着正确方向发展，杠杆率则从EBITDA的3.2倍降至1.7倍。
管理层的新战略 RISE 设定目标：到2028年实现每年6-7%的收入增长和12-13%的投入资本回报率（ROIC），只要执行到位，这个目标看起来是可实现的。
我还注意到，Cevian最近将其持股比例提升至超过12%，我认为这是个积极信号。
我唯一的担忧是盈利能力。ROCE仍明显落后于许多同行医疗科技公司，运营利润率约16%，而多数竞争对手在20%-25%之间。中国大规模制造存在风险，且2026年将面临6000万美元的关税成本。
我有没有忽略什么明显的因素？这是否是一个被市场忽视的价值机会？还是说市场不给更高评级是有充分理由的？
Pretty large gap between Adjusted and GAAP/IFRS EPS.. Didn't see anything that stood out in their adjustments (though not a tonne of info was provided). I didn't dig up all the adjusted figures, as I'm hopping back and forth between computer and deadlifts, but statutory eps has been significantly under estimated for 8 of the last 11 yrs, according to the data service I use. Maybe adjusted met estimates all of those yrs? But if so, even that would make me wonder what's with all the significant upwards adjustments. Have you looked at what the story is there?
Indeed - noticed this. They’ve been using an ‘adjusted’ version that assumes restructuring is temporary, and intangible amortisation is irrelevant- for over a decade! And neither have been proven true.
But this is the reason I use FCF - cuts through all this manufactured noise. If you use FCF in your calculations instead, the case for buying is still good.
What data service do you use btw, if you don’t mind me asking?
alright, so now you made me curious, and I went and dug up EPS-A back to 2020. Looks like analysts have been pretty darn accurate up till now, so maybe those climbing projections into 2028 are a little more trustworthy.. Now I'm thinking I might wanna look at these guys a bit more.
note that w EPS-A included, the legend changes, orange no longer FCF
oh, I should have added, scale on left is share price (earnings / fcf on right), but since LSE trades in pence, it looks ridiculous, and the forward pe display on the left is off by a factor of 100. 😄
Ya, I've seen that w a few companies I've investigated (the never-ending restructuring to pad adjusted eps). I'm still not sure how I feel about fcf. Definitely don't love it on it's own (for example, under IFRS (non-US alternative to GAAP), Interest Paid can be an Operating Cashflow or a Financing Cashflow, so on it's own you don't know if FCF is pre or post interest.. checked your SN just now, they have it in operating, so fcf is after paying interest).
I user tickerdata (paid extension for Sheets, but it's cheap) in combination w googlefinance requests for historical prices. I like things like this to get a real quick idea of if I wanna investigate further. Incidentally, this graph will put in Adjusted EPs as well, but as it's not a reported metric, I have to manually fetch each datapoint (once, to a data sheet, then sheet will match ticker and year w xlookup whenever you ask for it again). Have not done so for sn yet