046%

r/valueinvesting· u/snapjohn· 6 天前Stock Analysis 65

微软正在成为下一个 PayPal、Adobe 或 Uber 吗？

投资者摘要看空

作者担忧微软因巨额AI资本开支和货币化前景不明导致股票变成“死钱”，而不像谷歌和亚马逊拥有多元化模式。

看多要点

微软依然是一家非凡的企业，每年创造数百亿美元利润。
微软的产品被广泛使用，并深度融入日常运营中。

看空要点

巨额AI基础设施开支依赖于未来不确定的货币化前景。
若在估值高点买入，股票有变成“死钱”的风险。
与同行多元化的业务引擎相比，过度依赖单一AI产品。

MSFT GOOGL AMZNAI 资本开支价值 / 回购

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

在大家生气之前，我想说明一下：我并不是说微软公司不好。恰恰相反，微软很可能继续赚取数百亿的利润，并在我们所有人离开后依然存在。我担心的是，这只股票本身是否会变成毫无价值的资产。

PayPal、Adobe，现在还有Uber，都是企业存活并保持盈利的例子，但那些在错误估值时买入的人，并不一定能赚钱。

微软正在人工智能基础设施和数据中心上投入巨资，而看涨逻辑越来越依赖于对未来AI变现的假设。Copilot的采用率、企业支出以及这些投资的回报，目前仍不确定。这还只是猜测，而非保证。

与此同时，谷歌和亚马逊似乎有多条引擎同时运转。谷歌在搜索和广告领域依然占据主导地位，同时还拥有YouTube、Android、云服务、Waymo和Gemini。亚马逊则有AWS、广告业务、Prime会员、物流和零售。这两家公司都涉足人工智能，却不必过度依赖某一项产品证明自己成功。

再次强调，微软是一家非凡的企业，我每天都在使用它的产品。但再优秀的企业，也不一定就是好的投资。思科在互联网泡沫破裂后幸存下来并持续增长，但那些在顶峰买入的投资者，等待超过十年才回本。

难道我觉得微软可能会走上PayPal和Adobe的老路，是疯了吗？公司很出色，但股价回报平平？

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/Ill-Professional2914 47· 6 天前

Nah, they will be fine. Remember how google was treated in 2022-23, this is the same moment for microsoft.

u/TechTuna1200 5· 6 天前

Still waiting for AI to destroy search

u/fake212121 23· 6 天前

Did anyone invent MS office?

Excel sheets ?

U have no idea how big is msft moat.

u/maxiaoling 11· 6 天前

Remember LibraOffice and Googles sheets? Gmail? Google drive? Zoom?

Even these products that has been around for so long aren’t displacing Office from corporate usage.

u/StayedWalnut 22· 6 天前

Microsoft has more optionality than any of the other players.

Infra play via Azure hosting openai and others? Yes.

Via integration with ms office aka copilot? Yes and they can pivot that same concept into all desktop Ai productivity.

If ai fizzles it won't hurt much but if it blooms they will profit bigly. Its a low risk play.

u/Resident-Banana-7883 6· 5 天前

also, quantum computing. msft is well positioned if it blooms

u/thenuttyhazlenut 22· 6 天前

It's like 35x FCF or something like that

ADBE is 8x

u/iAmPoorAFboi 14· 6 天前

They're all shit

u/FederalExpressMan 10· 6 天前

Not in the corporate world.

u/SuperRedHulk1 8· 6 天前

That’s literally exactly what people said about the CEO of Google 2 years ago and look at it now

u/Helpful-Quantity2926 8· 6 天前

Not a chance. I'm buying it hand over fist at this price.

u/Docist 7· 6 天前

lol my guy there’s a whole website dedicated to shit Google discontinues and it grows every month.

Who cares about product quality? They both make shitty products and people still can’t leave them. That’s the point.

u/fake212121 5· 6 天前

Google search says 80% Fortune 500 uses MSFT 360 package, 90% rely on msft cloud services, “mister expert”

u/PersonalityHumble432 5· 6 天前

1% poster and MSFT is probably a top 3 stock with this same narrative of “it’s a buy guys but good stocks sometimes aren’t valued”.

How heavy is the bag you are holding? Did you over concentrate your portfolio?

Pick a different stock to moan about other than adobe, now, acn, or msft. The SaaS/Consultant high valuation era is over

u/fake212121 4· 6 天前

May u or a couple amateurs. Corporations still solid with msft packages

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