r/valueinvesting
Adobe跌至2018年水平，且交易价格仅为2030年收益的5倍
因免费模式恐慌Adobe股价跌至2018年水平，但作者认为其AI增长被低估且类似策略曾成功。
- 免费模式（如Acrobat Reader）历史上曾大获成功，带来庞大MAU并成功变现。
- 未被市场定价的AI指标：Creative Agent接入ChatGPT/Claude，AEP日处理700亿次激活，AI-first ARR同比增长3倍。
- 估值极低，跌至2018年水平且仅为2030年预期收益的5倍，具备极高的价值投资潜力。
- 转向免费模式可能导致令人担忧的5亿美元ARR（年度经常性收入）下滑。
- 如果第三季度MAU增长和Firefly ARR未能保持，收入下滑可能掩盖了潜在的结构性弱点。
Adobe的股票正经历大规模抛售，目前交易价格已回落至2018年的水平。我认为市场对Adobe有些过度恐慌了，我部分同意：如果转向免费模式导致年度经常性收入（ARR）下降5亿美元，确实会让股东感到担忧。
但Adobe以前就做过类似的事，而且效果很好。Acrobat Reader几十年来都是免费的，如今已拥有超过8.5亿月活跃用户（MAU），并通过AI助手和高级订阅计划实现变现。
Adobe在这一策略上有着非常强劲的历史表现。他们愿意赌一把，相信Firefly和Express也能以更大规模复制同样的成功路径。
在我看来，以下几点尚未被市场充分定价：
\- Adobe的创意代理（Creative Agent）目前已内置于ChatGPT和Claude中。
\- AEP每天处理700亿个用户画像激活。
\- 以AI为核心的增长型ARR已超过5亿美元，且同比增速达到3倍。
我会重点关注Q3的月活跃用户（MAU）增长以及Firefly的ARR环比变化。如果这两项数据能持续走强，说明这笔押注正在见效；如果不行，那所谓的“下调”可能只是掩盖了结构性弱点。大家怎么看？
Should be AdobeBagholder9058
That is what investing is about. Predicting the future.
If he thinks that earnings number is achievable, then it won't be on 5x pe, it will be on 10x p/e (probably) and he will have made 100%.
So its more about how confident he is on that number.
Right, but that's specifically what this sub avoids, right?
Short, snippy comments seem to do better than nuanced takes. So then you get guys saying it doesn't make sense to look at earnings 3.5 years away...
lol 2030 earnings. I think it’s 1x 2075 earnings, time to buy
That might have worked before the 2000s with consumer staples companies.
On your logic we should just ignore DCFs, earnings forecasts, management guidance, economic forecasts. It's all in the future after all.
Don't you understand a share price is the value of a company based on its FUTURE prospects / earnings (and that is over all time periods).
I can't debate this with you. You don't know the fundamentals. Read a few books and get back to me.
That E stands for earnings. You know future earnings, i.e. earnings PREDICTIONS.
So yes you do. All forward valuations are predictions.
the ways and the speed at which the world changed after 1999 is not comparable to 100 years earlier.
Dear god.
You can’t call this bottom. FOMO will kill you guys in this sector. Same arguments have been made since $380. Also there are legitimate problems with ADBEs future in particular that might be completely rational given competition from Apple Creative Studio forcing them back into freemium pricing.
Clearly this stock is not being priced by the market logically, but also no one can call the bottom. People should look for opportunities elsewhere rather than repeatedly touching the stove.
Agree. AI image create has so much legal liability to it, I think the tried and true will return to a prominent role.
It can go down more. Stop it with these posts.
Hey man, huge fan of your work - cerulean rays is one of my favorites. I remember listening to it as part of one of the ASOT warmup sets (maybe the 550 one?) more than 10 years ago - been listening to prog ever since.
I think the missing c-suite is more cause for alarm
C Suite doesn’t do shit.