内在价值 = 193美元

投资者摘要看多

作者使用分部估值法将BABA估值为193美元，强调了其强劲的现金储备和云/AI业务的增长。

看多要点

资产负债表强劲，扣除债务后拥有850亿美元的净现金和投资。
云/AI业务板块展现出38%的强劲营收增长。
分部估值法显示其193美元的内在价值存在显著低估。

看空要点

尽管快速商务业务增长58%，但面临高度竞争的市场环境。
核心电商和国际业务板块营收增长停滞。

BABA价值 / 回购

帖子正文

高质量模型翻译结果

我做这行已经很久了，新闻、炒作和情绪都是暂时的，只要业务本身说得通就行。

我给 BABA 的估值是 193 美元，基于 22 亿股，总企业价值 4250 亿美元，由 3400 亿美元加上 850 亿美元的投资构成。

资产负债表：850 亿美元 = 200 亿美元净现金 + 970 亿美元投资 - 330 亿美元长期债务。

电商：600 亿美元销售额（持平），估值 1200 亿美元。

云/AI：240 亿美元销售额（同比增长 38%），估值 1000 亿美元。

即时配送：120 亿美元销售额（同比增长 58%，但竞争激烈），估值 400 亿美元。

国际业务：200 亿美元销售额（持平），估值 400 亿美元。

其他所有业务：360 亿美元销售额（持平），估值 400 亿美元。

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/asphaltbabe 10· 5 天前

Except its at 100

u/ismisus 13· 5 天前

if all stocks were fair valued, then there would be no game, it would all be handled by computers.

u/TechTuna1200 9· 5 天前

That's when you buy. Not when it's approaching 190 USD

u/Final-Weekend-4826 2· 4 天前

Bought $60k worth of Baba yesterday. May buy more if it dips any today.

u/WarmFaithlessness946 8· 5 天前

Stock is up 11% in the last 10 years , this is an example of a great company but shit stock.

Honestly i hold this shit for 2 years and then I sold at 150, so i made a nice gains but its not worth holding , many better opportunities than this trash

u/FeralHamster8 4· 5 天前

Do you deny you spam the same comment repeatedly without adding anything new? This has nothing to do with me and no it’s not even my largest position.

u/FeralHamster8 4· 5 天前

If you spam this same comment one more time without something more you will be banned. This is your last warning, thanks.

u/Delta_Bandit 3· 5 天前

Its $190+ when this AI investment prints and the revenue growth goes double digits again. Intrinsic value should be around $140 after they went on shopping spree on datacenter. FCF plummeted, eps tanking, revenue growth is single digit (yeah cloud and AI growing fast blah blah. They make most money on ecommerce and thats how they fund their AI push) so Q2 report will tell us a lot

u/Awkward-Way1023 3· 5 天前

how many days in a row has BABA been red, is that new world record?

u/TraditionalMango58 3· 5 天前

I am Adding another 100 shares

u/ismisus 3· 5 天前

it did hit 190 in the last 6 months. Timing is tough, it can be next week or in 20 years. hopefully not the latter!

u/ismisus 2· 5 天前

They restarted last night with $12m for about 110k shares.

u/Icy_Distance8205 2· 5 天前

My intrinsic value for BABA is … hmm carry the y … t-head 25 multiple… hmm yes… total value = 💩

u/Sigmatruesince92 2· 5 天前

Go tell that to somebody that didn’t go all in with full margin at $170 average and was forced to sell everything from $115-$105

u/ismisus 2· 5 天前

Margin is a bad idea at all times, you don’t want to be forced to sell at lows

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