r/valueinvesting
如果只能选一只AI股票持有10年，我依然倾向于微软而非英伟达
作者倾向于长期持有MSFT而非NVDA，因其具备多元化的AI敞口、股息历史及更低的估值风险。
- MSFT 具备多元化的 AI 敞口和可靠的股息历史，是更安全的长期持有选择。
- NVDA 的估值已计入完美预期，且缺乏 MSFT 那样的业务多元化和股息历史。
也许这听起来有点无聊，但如果让我在接下来的十年里二选一，我还是会更倾向于微软。
英伟达显然在人工智能基础设施持续高速扩张的情况下有更大的上涨空间，但感觉市场已经充分意识到这一点，并且已经把太多完美预期计入股价了。相比之下，微软对我来说更像是一个更轻松的长期持有选择。你依然能通过Azure、OpenAI、Copilot、企业软件等获得重大的人工智能敞口，但其业务更加多元化，对单一赛道长期保持火热的依赖也小得多。
另外，如果我们从股息角度来讨论这个问题，我根本看不到英伟达有任何股息股的特征。而微软确实有实实在在的股东回报历史，英伟达目前仍是一个纯粹的成长型故事。
我不是说英伟达从现在起不能跑赢，它当然有可能。我只是觉得，如果问题是‘哪一个我会更安心地持有，穿越多个周期而无需过度思考’，我的答案还是微软。
好奇大家对此怎么看。
"0 returns"?
Msft earnings vs Msft stock price action are disconnected. The beat most quarters and get punished.
MSFT biggest problem is that it has almost no sex appeal.
Yep, it has no interesting storylines and a boring brand. It's not the AI god like Nvidia, it doesn't have cool shit FSD or space asteroids, there's no "insatiable demand" for office/windows like memory and NAND. It doesn't have the cool iPhone. It's saddle with software AI which is in the toilet too.
It's a good boring company among many and doesn't stand out. It's the Exxon, Coke, or Bank of America of tech.
That's why it has to pay for Russian prostitutes. Oh wait sorry... That's the founder.
Right! It's the boring company that everyone is kinda annoyed at (because Windows and Copilot is so inefficient). And people associate it with Bill Gates whose reputation has really tanked recently.
Hmmm yeah no. I would pick the one who is making tons of money off of A.I vs the one that is destroying 100s of Billions chasing it.
People underestimate this so much. Compliance headaches and liability are major factors when a company considers a move like that. The default option is usually not to change.
Google is probably the one I’d put closest to Microsoft in a bucket, especially at its current valuation. And yeah, there’s a decent chance the biggest AI winner a decade from now isn’t one of today’s obvious names at all. My only hesitation is that if I’m choosing from the current mega caps, I still trust Microsoft’s position inside enterprise workflows a bit more.
that's a good point - most of the money to be made might be in the enterprise space and msft is dominant there. perhaps they build agents/agentic workflows that will replace all of us (just kidding, i hope).
VOO
If you waited 4-5 years and it suddenly doubles on year 5 then you will have outperformed the average S&P 500 return btw
I am dying seeing your comments about MSFT on every subreddit lol
And who says demand will ever be met? Technology evolves and their product will always be needed. Are there stocks that will provide better returns going forward? Most likely sure. Is nvidia a bad buy? In no way shape or form.
Of course, I just wanted to throw in the exception to the rule. I am not arguing. I still like Microsoft, but I do see the point about bad products.
But I also see it with Adobe and I am invested in that for a few weeks now. But that is a whole other story.
And if it tripled over 10 years while it trades sideways for a long long time (while earnings and FCF continuously improve) then you’d still outperform the benchmark lolll
Few people have the patience for that except Mr. Buffett and the late Mr. Munger unfortunately. And absolutely not on Reddit
An in 10 years MSFT bag holders will be saying the same thing that MSFT is such a value play. If you’re actually concerned about getting $9 every quarter from your 10 shares, good luck with that!
Even with the market pullback today, NVDA up 40% yty. MSFT is up 44% over the last 5 years, -22% yty but hey you got your dividends to offset your losses!