MU 正在计入一些极其异常的恐慌情绪

投资者摘要中性

MU 期权显示 100% 的极端隐含波动率，计入巨大恐慌，预示 AI 市场可能崩盘或波动率泡沫破裂。

看多要点

如果预期的恐慌未能兑现，极高的隐含波动率溢价为波动率卖方提供了丰厚的获利机会。
机构对冲和做市商扩大隐含波动率可能人为夸大了恐慌情绪，从而制造了波动率泡沫。

看空要点

MU 是整个 AI 行业的关键瓶颈；任何疲软的指引都可能引发整个 AI 板块 40% 的崩盘。
做市商极度害怕跳空风险并拒绝卖出保险，表明市场对巨大下行风险存在严重的潜在恐惧。

MU半导体财报季

帖子正文

MU October IV is sitting at over 100% IV for contracts 40% OTM (This is insane by the way)

NVIDA in 2023 was the last time this happened on their massive guidance from my research, Meme stocks being another

This is a MASSIVE premium on insurance this far out in term, and a volatility bubble goldmine

this also says a couple things:

\- MU is the bottleneck of the entire AI industry, if MU says demand is slowing, AI could be down 40% as a whole, hence the risk premium demanded from the 100% IV so far out

\- OR Its massive institutional hedging and MM IV expansion

\- AND MMs are terrified of gap risk, they dont want to sell any more insurance, they just boost the IV

This is MASSIVE panic, like unheard of type of panic

$7 wide spreads in October are also a tell tale sign of MMs dont know wtf is going to happen

This earnings is going to be BIG, really big, like crash the AI market on bad guidance big, or a massive volatility bubble waiting to be popped

讨论 · 高赞评论15 条精选

u/Impressive_Treat_617 48· 5 天前

Stock is up 917% since 8/1/25. Time for 40% pullback.

u/FlyingCats17 41· 5 天前

The company is trading at about 10x Forwad P/E with growth. Unless pricing shows actual signs of eroding, a 40% drop to a forward P/E of 6 doesn't seem likely.

u/m264 11· 5 天前

Unless that forward PE isn't realised since it's all an estimate on guidance etc.

u/FlyingCats17 19· 5 天前

They are essentially on contract for most of 2027. I don't know what happens 2-3 years from now, but bet against these companies at your own peril in the next 18 months.

u/purub123 7· 5 天前

People say this but then also fail to realise all those estimates have been FAR too low implying the real forward PE is even lower. Theres two sides to this coin.

u/Then-Kaleidoscope520 21· 5 天前

The thing about AI is none of the MU’s or NVDA’s are going to ever say it’s slowing down … Just look at SpaceX pricing in interplanetary travel to Mars … Meanwhile FSD isn’t even 100% yet lol … future values are concerning but they’ll keep inflating them

u/Imaginary-Case3976 9· 5 天前

Yes; I can’t believe I’m the only one seeing this too. No one is going to stay oh slowdown coming; sell the shares

u/AggressiveBench7708 9· 5 天前

I’m sure there will come a time when someone says it because it will be too obvious by their earnings. This isn’t the time. People think this bubble is about to pop, but it’s not. For many companies it’s just getting started

u/Imaginary-Case3976 11· 5 天前

I will say the bubble talk is healthy for the markets overall because it slows the bubble from forming too fast. And we have these mini pops that aren’t catastrophic.

It gets dangerous when everyone is onboard and there’s no talk of bubbles.

u/Powerful_Wishbone25 11· 5 天前

Claude always freaks the fuck out at high IV. Probably Claude.

u/GammaReaper_ 10· 5 天前

Lol. After all the sh\*t OP gave me last week on my (100% correct BTW) EA trade on $ADBE, with all his claims about how brilliant and options trader he is, pretty much smarter than anyone else, this is the best he can do??!! WTF kind of drivel is this? Ewww - IV is high and the market is going to move big or vol will be crushed!!

So my big shot, instead of stating the obvious, what don't you bless us with your brilliant trading acumen and tell us your trade that will make us all rich??!!🤡

u/mastro80 9· 5 天前

You have serious balls.

u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 9· 5 天前

Bold.

u/__dying__ 8· 5 天前

I don't think there's any amount of forward guidance that will justify the recent move. They don't have enough supply to offer. I think it will sell off AH, but then the dip will get bought up all the rest of the week. So dip then rip.

u/FlyingCats17 6· 4 天前

Are you going to time the drop with one of the few AI companies that is massively FCF positive?

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