大多数MAG7股票(AMZN、MSFT、META)的问题所在
作者认为,由于云业务增长更快、核心资产质量更高及AI硬件更优,GOOGL比AMZN、MSFT和META更好。
- GOOGL的GCP云业务增速(同比64%)显著超越AWS等竞争对手。
- GOOGL的核心业务(搜索、YouTube)属于轻资产模式,利润率更高。
- GOOGL有望受益于苹果的AI整合,且其TPU硬件合作更具优势。
- AMZN的电商业务质量较低,属于高资本支出、低利润率的消费可选业务。
- META缺乏持续的AI收入,投资者已厌倦其重度资本支出。
AMZN、MSFT 和 META 的问题,全出在 GOOGL 身上。
我的持仓均价是:AMZN(215美元)、MSFT(360美元)、META(600美元)、GOOGL(160美元)。
在亚马逊财报发布时,其云计算业务增长达到28%,考虑到 AWS 已经如此庞大,这个增速非常惊人。这正是投资者期待的——亚马逊云业务重新加速增长。那为什么股价却走弱?因为谷歌财报太亮眼了。谷歌 GCP 的增长简直离谱,我不得不反复核对多个数据源才敢相信它真实存在,同比增速接近64%。相比之下,28% 的增长就显得平平无奇,尽管它其实已经很不错了。更不用说苹果进军 AI,带来了大量资本流入,而这些资金几乎全部利好谷歌——因为推理任务跑在 GCP 上,Gemini 也集成在 Siri 中。
我承认,从软件平台角度看,AWS 在转换成本和先发优势上仍优于 GCP;但谷歌与博通合作的硬件 TPUs,比亚马逊的 Trainium 更强。另一个问题是,亚马逊的核心业务质量偏低:它依赖 AWS,而很多人认为这与 AI 风险挂钩;而它的电商业务属于可选消费,本质上是高资本开支、低利润率的 commodity(商品)生意。反观谷歌,搜索引擎和 YouTube 是更高品质的业务,轻资产、高毛利。从核心业务质量到垂直整合程度,谷歌几乎在所有维度上都客观地胜出。
再看 Meta,这个问题比亚马逊更明显。Meta 缺乏真正扎实且持续的 AI 收入来源——无论是顶级模型(如 Gemini),还是云业务(GCP)。投资者早已厌倦了空泛的承诺和对未来的幻想,尤其是经历了元宇宙失败后,对 Meta 大规模资本支出的期待已彻底冷却。监管和诉讼限制青少年使用社交媒体的风头被夸大了,因为这部分对收入贡献微乎其微。Meta 最大的问题在于,相比谷歌、苹果和微软,它缺乏显著的 AI 分布式能力。这也是为什么扎克伯格如此执着于元宇宙作为分发渠道,但最终被苹果不断加固的护城河所击败。
作为一个持有 Meta 股票并经常使用大模型的人,我几乎要笑出来:为什么我会去 Instagram 使用他们的模型?这种分发方式简直糟糕透顶,完全无法与 ChatGPT、Claude、CoPilot(工作场景)或 Gemini 相提并论。唯一让我看多 Meta 的一点,虽然不那么显眼,但技术上“藏在后台”——AI 正极大提升 Meta 核心产品的收入,其营收增长超过30%,这让估值看起来异常便宜。这些才是谷歌为何如此有吸引力的原因。
最后说微软,它最大的问题在于:支撑这只股票最强的理由,是它相对于护城河质量而言实在太便宜了,我认为这一点没错。我非常欣赏克里斯·霍恩的投资哲学,但这次我更认同比尔·阿克曼的观点——基于低廉估值和持久的分发护城河,这确实可能是一笔成功的投资。但我认为这只股票“理应”表现不佳,原因有很多:首先是 Copilot,它明显落后于 Google Gemini;另一个被低估的问题是微软 Azure 正在丢掉市场份额,这在财报数字中并不明显,但如果你仔细观察,会发现 OpenAI 合作关系正变成一场灾难。近一半的云收入暴露在 OpenAI 风险之下,无数文章都在渲染 Azure 在技术上远远落后于 AWS。我同意 M365 网络效应能强行把 AI 工具塞进企业(我作为企业员工亲身体验过),Copilot 有望凭借分发优势成功,类似 Zoom 被 Teams 完全取代的过程,尽管竞争极其激烈。但总体来说,缺乏催化剂,加上 M365 风险被过度夸大,拖累了股价表现。
写这篇帖子的目的是什么?我认同大多数 MAG7 的投资叙事,但谷歌却是所有这些公司最大的障碍。对我来说,为什么还要去押注那些业务质量有缺陷、缺乏催化剂的超大规模云厂商,寄希望于遥远的未来?而谷歌的故事如此清晰、如此强劲,根本无需怀疑。我真心觉得,这就是巴菲特和 TCI 管理层为何重仓谷歌的原因——故事太明显了。
当初买入谷歌时,我的逻辑很简单:它在搜索、办公工具和 YouTube 上拥有最优质的 AI 分发渠道;同时还能接触到极其丰富的数据资源,这对训练顶级大模型极具优势。搜索受到威胁的说法被严重夸大,因为搜索数据实际上在稳步改善。谷歌云正迅速变成现金牛。我和这个社区里的许多人一样判断正确。但我从未想过有一天,谷歌会像股市中的灭霸一样,占据 AI 故事中最有利的位置。Google Gemini 在顶尖 AI 实验室中具备可比性和竞争力,比如 Anthropic 和 OpenAI。谷歌云以惊人的速度增长,正在威胁 AWS 和 Azure 的市场份额。谷歌与博通合作的 TPUs 正在侵蚀市场,甚至让英伟达不得不向投资者保证:ASIC 不会成为问题。更别提它还有 YouTube 和搜索这类现金牛业务,足以支撑芯片研发和 AI 投资,使其地位远超 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 这类必须靠大量举债维持运营的公司。此外,YouTube 正在杀死传统电视,威胁 Netflix;核心搜索也在持续增长。最无关紧要的一点是:特斯拉投资者对机器人出租车的狂热信仰,但 Waymo 才是真正的领跑者。
I’m glad for you or Sorry that happened
You completely misunderstood meta
Meta is the Only one that has proven revenues from ai no other company has that
How do you think meta revenue is growing 30% faster then any of mag7 except NVDIA
As Nvidia Chief puts it, noone does ai better then meta
Whole ad business is based on ai
GCP's growth is so high because it includes chip sales.
Meta has been monetizing AI internally for years. Thats how they were able to overcome the ios privacy changes so fast. And why revenue is growing 20%+.
I agree Copilot sucks compared to Gemini or Claude, but im not sure if it matters given MSFT's distribution.
The Europoors will come back to MSFT when they find out supporting clueless users on Linux is a huge drain. It has been tried again and again, hence the joke "Year of the Linux Desktop". We techies love Linux and don't mind dropping down to the shell to do some housekeeping. But not Françoise the office worker down at Marseille city hall.
Copilot has the advantage of being the only AI allowed in a corporate IT ecosystem that prioritizes security above all else. And that’s virtually every Fortune 500 company.
Google doc hasn’t made a dent on M365. As I said, F500 companies don’t mind paying licenses if the product has worked well in the past, they are repulsed to changes if things are up and running. The #1 issue is the headcount loss due to ai, meaning less licenses being sold but I can see MSFT changing their billing model for M365 if it makes a dent in their pocket.
somehow F500 is scared of a minuscule change from M365 to google workspace but at the same time ready to vibe code their own version 😂
You dont see many bringing up META or MSFT
MAG(YTD rtn) -4.3% , RSP(YTD rtn) +9.1% (still got all 7 stocks there). S&P(YTD return): +7.75%
My company just got like 3,000 m365 copilot licenses
My company just got like 3,001 m365 copilot licenses
Microsoft - The reason Microsoft is going to win is the same reason it wins at everything else. It has the deepest moat in business and it leverages to perfect even if the underlying product isn't that great.
Argument #1: Copilot vs Gemini - This really highlights your lack of research as the crux of your argument doesn't make sense. Copilot is AI agnostic while Gemini is an LLM. I think the AI agnostic pathway is a much smarter approach as studies show leveraging specific AIs to do specific tasks yield better results and can allow much lower costs. This is probably better long-term when you factor in how much cheaper per million tokens opensource Chinese models are. However, let's ignore that because today's Copilot is horrible. However, I think the important thing to remember is that Copilot is horrible AND it still crushes Gemini in terms of paid users. Microsoft's distribution network is unmatched.
Argument #2: Basically, all these arguments are stupid. You complain Microsoft is dependent on OpenAI but ignore the fact Amazon and Google are dependent on Anthropic and Gemini. The cloud argument doesn't really make sense since right now all cloud companies are at max capacity because OpenAI and Anthropic are growing so fast.
The idea that Azure is stalled is stupid. Prior to the find compute at all costs, Azure was clearly winning the cloud race. At this point, it doesn't matter because anyone who has cloud space will find a buyer.
GCP: 28,32,36,48,63
Azure: 33,31,40,39,40
AWS: 17,18,20,24,28
The technological superiority argument is also dumb. It's just different building philosophies. AWS gives a lot more control. Azure gives you simplicity, integration, etc. You go with what you like.
Microsoft and Google are my two biggest holdings. I think Google is a slightly better bet long-term but Google at 4.3T is so obviously a worst bet than Microsoft at 2.7T. This isn't defensible. Microsoft makes like 10B more in operating profit, hasn't recognized OpenAI's stake (Google recognized Anthropic and SpaceX), and is half the value. You're just being a blatant homer.
I was being sarcastic. Three of the four posts I can see on the homepage are msft related. Its an extremely interesting setup. Im in with about 50% of my taxable portfolio, 400 shares worth.
I think Google is going to be fine and both a recipient of AI tech improvement and a supplier of compute. They have the right ecosystem. MSFT as well. META is trying to become something beside an advertising company. Ai will help them more in targeting little girls who feel bad about themselves than it will be a pick and shovel company. The problem is Zuckerberg is unchecked and spending billions on a strategy that doesn’t have enough upside. Just like he did with Metaverse. If he focused on being a cash cow and milking it- this would be a $1000 stock.
And I bet those orgs aren’t using Azure. Once you sign up for the core Microsoft ecosystem, a lot of IT firms will sacrifice slight usability to ensure everything else is balanced.

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