r/valueinvesting
保险公司
作者称赞 Kinsale、Chubb、Travelers、Arch 和 NMIH 为高质量长期保险复利机器，正等待更好价格。
- 高质量的保险公司，拥有优异的长期业绩记录、强劲的综合成本率和审慎的资本配置。
- 增长潜力强且盈利稳定，是可靠的长期复利机器。
- 相对于其有形账面价值和长期盈利能力，估值指标具有吸引力。
- 当前估值并不便宜，交易倍数较高，限制了安全边际。
- 固有的承保风险意味着在保险周期中偶尔出现糟糕的年份是不可避免的。
Kinsale
它不便宜，可能目前交易价格在17倍左右，而其他公司要便宜得多，但这家公司的增长潜力引起了我的注意。他们做得非常出色。
Chubb
可能是全球最好的保险公司之一。估值合理。在当前水平，我认为你的资金年化复利回报率有望达到8%到12%。我正在等待股价下跌8%到20%，或者在相同价位下，其盈利和剔除AOCI后的账面价值（TBV）能略有增长。
The Travelers Group
另一家出色的公司。如果Chubb是AA级企业，那么The Travelers Group就是A+级。和Chubb一样，目前估值也合理。
Travelers在19年里只出现过一次亏损年份，表现极为出色。
Chubb是一家长期可靠的复利增长型公司。但我认为这三家公司未来都会表现良好。
我只是在等它们的价格稍微更优一些。
如果你在寻找质量足够高的公司，ARCH 更便宜，但我预计它们每十年左右可能会遇到一次亏损年份。不过它依然是高质量的保险公司。
如果Chubb是AA级，KINSALE是AA到A+级，Travelers是A+级，ARCH是A级。
这是我个人的浅见 :)
祝大家一切顺利！让我们一起赚他一大笔钱吧。
顺便说一下：这些都是长期持有的标的。
附注：NMI Holdings。如果能以略低的价格入手，我很乐意加仓。NMI Holdings属于抵押贷款保险公司，从这个类别来看，它是质量最高的公司，历史指标表现最佳。
当然，还有其他优秀或足够好的保险公司，但就目前而言，考虑到它们剔除AOCI后的账面价值（TBV）、当前调整后盈利与股价比以及长期表现，我觉得它们有点贵了。
所谓长期表现，我们关注的是它们的历史综合赔付率、同一时期准备金估算、管理层资本配置能力，以及在不做出愚蠢决策（比如承保劣质保险）的前提下实现增长的能力。
祝大家一切顺利！让我们一起赚他一大笔钱吧。
KNSL is the best from your list , great company at a fair price and long term i see a lot of growth potential so for me it’s a strong buy rn
To be honest, I work in the industry and I keep seeing KNSL get mentioned a ton in this sub and I've never heard of it, Chubb, Travelers, Arch, All State, Progressive etc... on the other hand I'm very familiar with. Kinsale seems to be a non-admitted E&S carrier from my basic research which isn't bad, those lines of business can be lucrative but they are hard to place for a reason, they're a lot more risky and unpredictable than standard P&C insurance that admitted carriers primarily do, meaning those other companies OP mentioned wouldn't touch whatever Kinsale is insuring. Again it's not bad but probably harder to predict and riskier of an investment than the others.
What about Palomar Insurance? (PLMR)
I like Chubb too but curious what you think about them laying off 20% of their entire workforce? They are historically the gold standard when talking insurance carriers but that caused me to raise an eye brow.
I agree with your assessment of Chubb, except I believe it’ll compound between 10-12% at a pretty steady pace. Another business I like is Markel, although it’s not a pure play insurance company. It is currently undervalued and should compound in the low to mid-teens for a long time.
MKL ! Another great company.
I studied their insurance side. They are growing their float at around \~7% per year and had a profitable underwriting 10 out of the las 10 years. It’s impressive. And not only that but they estimated accurately they reserves 21 out of the las 21 years. My god that is amazing.
Again, because it is earning almost \~$1B to shareholders (adjusted earnings, leaving the noise of “fair vale investments” fluctuations that appears on the income statement but have actually nothing to do with their profitability) and it’s trading at \~$23B, I am waiting for a bigger discount.
To use your method of valuation, you also need to subtract MKL’s $12 billion stock portfolio from its market cap, and you get an earnings multiple that’s barely over 10.
RLI is AAA, but priced like it. Also lots of insider buys unlike the others.
You’re right. It’s another fantastic one with a great growth. 30 years of profitable underwrtiting.
Their Causalty business is exceptional (10/10 - Profitable underwriting in 10 out of the last 10 years)
Their Property business is great (8/10)
Their Suerty business is exceptional too (10/10)
But all together gave profits to its shareholders.
Is a great company with a bigger growth potential than CHUBB or TRAVELERS (that are safe but slow, specially because of their size)
I’m waiting for RLI to trade with a little bigger discount 😁
ROOT
ROOT? In the last 8 years their underwriting was profitable only in 2 of them. Their adjusted earnings (last profitable) gave $35M to shareholders while it’s trading at \~$825M.
Why do you like it? What am I missing?
Asic
I studied ASIC. It has such a short duration that my conslusion was to keep an eye on it over the next years. What called my attention was the interesting management they seem to have.
If you like ASIC is probably because their management is very high quality. You may like BOW too, it also has a short duration but an outstanding management. Both are trading at similar relative prices than KNSL.
I was adding +$20.000 to one, and I just picked KNSL for the proven track record and because it was growing its float at around \~30% CAGR.
I have great expectations for ASIC and BOW. Their management may surprise us.
Yes, I haven’t checked out BOW yet, but I will now! Thanks for plugging me in. Yes, ASICs leadership seems to be stellar. Stuart Zimmer comes from an intelligent family and has steadily grown his wealth over the last 15 years.