r/valueinvesting
来点不一样的
将梅赛德斯-奔驰视为深度价值投资标的，权衡了中国电动车竞争风险与强劲现金流、高股东回报及低估值。
- 强大的全球豪华品牌，尽管面临宏观逆风，富裕客户的需求依然具有韧性。
- 强劲的现金流创造能力和稳健的资产负债表，支持激进的资本回报（9-11%的股东收益率）。
- 估值极低（7-8倍远期市盈率，7-8%的股息率），市场已计入其永久性结构性衰退的预期。
- 中国电动车制造商的激烈竞争和奢侈品市场疲软严重损害了盈利能力。
- 汽车EBIT利润率暴跌至约4%，引发市场对其可能永久丧失定价权的担忧。
- 悲观情景下，如果中国市场永不复苏且利润率持续低迷，公允价值可能跌至30-40欧元。
这些软件相关的帖子有点重复了。我感谢大家的观点，也确实看好 Adobe 和 SAP，但我觉得不妨换个地方看看市场中是否有其他潜在价值。
梅赛德斯-奔驰集团
我对梅赛德斯的投资逻辑归结为一个简单问题：市场是在定价一次暂时的盈利下滑，还是在定价一场永久性的衰退？
目前每股约 €44 的股价，已经反映了大量负面因素。主要风险在于中国。过去，梅赛德斯依靠向富裕的中国消费者销售高端车型，获得了极高的利润率，但来自中国电动车制造商的竞争以及奢侈品市场的疲软，已严重侵蚀其盈利能力。2026 年第一季度，汽车业务的息税前利润率降至约 4%，远低于历史水平。市场担心梅赛德斯可能再也无法恢复昔日的盈利能力。
我的价值判断是，即便面临这些问题，梅赛德斯依然是全球最强大的豪华汽车品牌之一。富裕客户依然在购买梅赛德斯，尤其是看重其身份象征、舒适性和奢华感。公司持续产生可观现金流，资产负债表强劲，拥有显著的工业净流动性，并通过股息和回购积极回馈股东。当前最高达 €20 亿的回购计划，加上股息与回购合计的股东回报率约为 9%-11%。
在 €44 的价位上，该股票市盈率约为未来 earnings 的 7-8 倍，股息收益率也达到 7%-8%。这种估值通常只适用于结构性衰退的企业，而非一家全球豪华品牌。
我的悲观情景假设：中国永远无法复苏，利润率长期维持在 3%-5%，盈利稳定在每股 €4-5。在这种情况下，合理价值可能仅为 €30-40。我们几乎已经接近这个水平，所以我正在认真考虑开始逐步建仓（但我还没真正动手）。
我的基准情景假设：利润率从当前低迷水平有所回升，欧洲和北美市场保持稳健，中国则趋于稳定而非出现大幅改善。在此前提下，合理价值约为每股 €55-65。
我的乐观情景假设：梅赛德斯最终能回归接近历史水平的盈利能力，回购继续减少总股本，投资者不再将其视作一家衰退中的车企。在这种情况下，合理价值可能达到 €70-90 以上。
相比宝马和大众，我更偏好梅赛德斯，因为其估值折价更大。宝马在运营上或许略胜一筹，但梅赛德斯相对于当前价格而言，上涨空间更大。
如果要用一句话总结这项投资：在 €44 的价位上，梅赛德斯看起来像是一家优质豪华品牌，却被市场当作其中国问题永久且不可逆转来定价，而一旦现实只是糟糕而非灾难性，就会创造显著价值。
Have you been inside a new Mercedes? It has been enshittified beyond belief
I haven’t personally driven the latest Mercedes models, but from aggregated customer and reviewer feedback, there’s a mixed perception: interiors in some newer models feel more cost-optimised and screen-heavy compared to earlier generations, which has led to criticism about a loss of traditional “luxury feel.” However, this seems to be an industry-wide shift rather than something unique to Mercedes, as most premium OEMs are moving toward software-defined cabins (this is something that is specifically where they could win more market share in Asia) and platform cost efficiency. From an investment perspective, the key question is less about subjective interior feel and more about whether Mercedes can maintain premium pricing, brand positioning, and cash flow generation through the transition.
Curious with the risks or regulation (tariffs, price controls) and more China pushing more into China. Why not look at Ferrari where people pay regardless as they will never make enough to meet demand or lower prices
Ferrari is a higher-quality business in the sense of pricing power and scarcity, but that quality is already priced in. I would say its almost priced for perfection right now. Mercedes is a cyclical industrial luxury brand being valued as if structural decline is certain. The debate isn’t which is “better”, but whether Mercedes’ current pessimism is excessive relative to its cash flow and brand durability.
Thank you!
any investment into european car companies is an investment in them being able to strongarm EU officials into tariffs.
these companies are essentially just dead weight on society, paid for by price controls on foreign goods.
cancerous, and i hope every investor into german car co's goes bankrupt and will never recover his portfolio.
I think you’re mixing up industrial policy with company-level investing. Whether EU tariffs are good or bad for society is a separate debate — but it doesn’t determine whether a stock is under- or overvalued.
Mercedes doesn’t “control” EU policy. It competes globally against BMW, Tesla, BYD, Toyota, etc., and earns returns based on pricing power, cost structure, and demand — not political leverage.
From a valuation perspective, the question is simpler: is the market correctly pricing in permanently lower margins (especially in China EV competition), or is it over-discounting cyclical weakness?
At ~7–8x earnings with strong cash generation and high shareholder returns, the debate is about duration and margin recovery — not whether the company is “good for society”.