r/options
周二崩盘前，投机者已以一年极值净做空纳斯达克。
周二崩盘前投机者已重度做空纳指和VIX，主因是韩国抛售和美联储加息信号，而非MU财报。
- 大型投机者已以一年极值净做空纳斯达克。
- 内部人士正在减持，NVDA内部人士单日抛售4000万美元。
- 面临韩国股市抛售和美联储转向加息信号等宏观逆风。
在持仓报告（COT）数据中翻到了这个。进入周二时（KOSPI下跌9.99%，MU下跌13%，SK海力士下跌12.5%），大型投机者对纳斯达克期货的净空头仓位已处于过去一年的第5百分位。他们已经连续两个月做空，而指数却仍在不断创新高。
有趣的是：同一群人同时也在净空VIX，基本上是在押注市场平静。所以他们看对了方向，却完全看错了波动率。一边做空指数，一边又做空保险（VIX）。
内部人士也在减持。NVDA有5名内部人士在单日（6月17日）合计卖出4000万美元，包括黄仁勋和首席财务官，不过这可能只是例行的10b5-1计划操作。
总之，这次下跌并非源于美光业绩不及预期——MU第二天才发布财报。真正原因是韩国市场的抛售，加上美联储在17日突然转向加息信号。
SOXX will crash, it is propped up by retail maxing out margins and taking personal loans, selling other assets, etc - it's the top my friends
maybe it will be flat with huge volatility til september when the first fed hike comes, also a hyperscaler will say it's time time to decrease capex and semis go back to at least january levels but probably lower
big ol nothin burger
If you look at SOXX using any of a variety of analysis tools, the turn south came last week while it was still going sideways.
SOXX was already diverging while price was still flat. Momentum had left the building before the headline gave everyone a reason to sell.