r/valueinvesting
美光 ($MU)：AI 抬高了底线，但它是否终结了存储周期？
作者质疑美光估值，认为其繁荣由涨价而非出货量驱动，警告尽管有 AI HBM 需求仍可能面临周期见顶。
- AI 创造了巨大的高带宽内存（HBM）需求。
- 美光正向英伟达批量出货 HBM4，并深度整合进客户路线图。
- 基本面明显改善，抬高了周期底线。
- 近期营收加速主要由定价（DRAM/NAND 涨价）驱动，而非出货量增长。
- 历史上，存储股的低市盈率往往预示着周期见顶而非被低估。
- 过去的周期证明，当价格和需求发生转变时，营收和自由现金流可能会迅速崩溃。
大家好，我很乐意听听你们对美光（Micron）估值的看法。我知道它现在不是一只价值股，但我希望这个子版块适合进行一般的估值讨论、逆向DCF模型等话题的交流，如果不合适也可以删除。
简介
美光目前可能处于其历史上最强的位置，而股价也已反映了这一点。
内存股历来会制造一种危险的视觉错觉：在周期底部附近，盈利消失，股票看起来很贵；而在周期顶部，价格涨幅超过成本，利润率飙升，股票突然以看似无法抗拒的倍数交易。
历史上，这种低倍数往往是一个警示信号，表明盈利接近周期性高点，而非真正被低估的证据。
但如今，包括美光在内的整个行业，情况有所不同——看涨逻辑是真实的。
人工智能（AI）创造了对高带宽内存的巨大需求，美光目前已大规模出货用于NVIDIA的HBM4，扩展数据中心产品线，并更深入地融入客户的技术路线图。业务显然已经改善，但问题是：改善程度是否足以支撑当前的估值？
核心问题：当前繁荣的大部分来自定价
美光近期业绩非凡，但增长主要来自更高的售价。
顺序来看，DRAM价格上升了约60%，而NAND价格上涨了70%以上。比特出货量的增长则要温和得多。我认为这一点很重要，因为美光以前也经历过类似情况。
在2018财年，美光实现了304亿美元的收入和92亿美元的调整后自由现金流。到了2023财年，收入几乎腰斩，运营利润率转为负37%，调整后自由现金流更是跌至负55亿美元。
产品依然至关重要，但供需关系和定价发生了变化。
估值所要求的条件
在我的分析中，美光的企业价值约为1.36万亿美元。
使用9%的折现率和2%的永续增长率，这大致对应：
每年可持续的FCFF为950亿美元
作为参考：
• 历史全年调整后FCF最高纪录：92亿美元
• 2025财年之前的十年平均值：约19亿美元
• 2026财年第二季度调整后FCF的年化值：约276亿美元
若按正常化的30% FCFF利润率计算，950亿美元的年现金流需要约：
3170亿美元的年收入
这超过了美光2025财年收入的8倍。
市场显然在定价一个根本不同的公司，而不仅仅是一轮强劲的记忆体周期。
为什么多头并不疯狂，空头也不完全是瞎说
HBM比普通DRAM更难制造，需要先进封装、堆叠晶圆、高良率以及漫长的客户认证流程……
同时，它还占用了不成比例的晶圆产能，可能收紧整个DRAM市场。
与以往周期相比，美光在技术能力、数据中心暴露度和战略重要性上都更强。
另一方面，空头观点并不要求AI需求崩溃，只需“仅”供应响应即可。
美光、三星和SK海力士都在扩大产能。新产能需要多年才能投产，因此短缺可能持续，但最终更多产能将恢复客户选择权，削弱定价能力。
我们之前见过这样的故事，即使地板抬高了，房间本质上还是那个房间。
美光的异常高利润率也不仅限于HBM。其移动设备与客户端业务最近实现了79%的非GAAP毛利率，表明传统内存领域也普遍存在稀缺溢价。
我设想的四种短缺可能结束的方式
这四种情景均假设AI需求保持强劲。
变化的是：今天的价格优势能保留多少、有多少新供应进入市场，以及高于常态的增长能持续多久，超出2030财年之后。
（示例性经营情景，非精确预测）
情景A：传统周期回归
美光仍与AI相关，但新产能最终会削弱HBM、传统DRAM和NAND的价格。
收入从峰值回落，而折旧和资本密集度仍维持高位。
示例假设：
2030财年收入：约950亿美元
2030财年FCFF：约80亿美元
2035财年收入：约1300亿美元
2035财年FCFF：约170亿美元
估算企业价值：约2000亿美元
估算股权价值：约每股183美元
这是一个投资者为一个本质上仍是周期性稀缺业务支付了永久性不同估值的情景，而非“AI是假的”情景。
该情景仅支持6月22日企业价值的约15%。
情景B：美光建立更高门槛
HBM消耗足够产能，使传统DRAM结构上持续紧张。行业自律改善，美光显著转向数据中心产品。
假设：
2030财年收入：约1650亿美元
2030财年FCFF：400亿美元
2035财年收入：2070亿美元
2035财年FCFF：520亿美元
估算企业价值：6160亿美元
估算股权价值：约每股552美元
这将代表美光历史经济表现的惊人提升，但仍仅支持6月22日企业价值的约45%。
情景C：一个真正全新的美光
美光成为长期主要的AI内存供应商，拥有持久的HBM布局。
先进服务器内存和数据中心存储支持结构性更高的规模和利润率，尽管业务仍有一定周期性。
假设：
2030财年收入：2350亿美元
2030财年FCFF：710亿美元
2035财年收入：3490亿美元
2035财年FCFF：940亿美元
估算企业价值：1.10万亿美元
估算股权价值：约每股978美元
这已经是极为乐观的经营成果。即便如此，也仅支持6月22日企业价值的约81%。
情景D：市场隐含的AI内存领军者
这是能够弥合估值差距的一种潜在路径。美光在主要HBM代际中成为技术同行或领导者。AI基础设施支出保持异常水平，HBM继续占用不成比例的晶圆产能。在此情景下，美光能在2030年后仍维持高速增长。
假设：
2030财年收入：2700亿美元
2030财年FCFF：840亿美元
2035财年收入：4380亿美元
2035财年FCFF：1180亿美元
该情景可支持完整的1.36万亿美元企业价值。
市场并不要求美光永远维持巅峰利润率，但确实要求公司变得极其庞大，在未来十年大部分时间里产生异常现金流，并避免任何类似其历史周期的情况发生。
我的观点
我认为AI和HBM确实显著提升了美光的周期内盈利潜力，但我对它们是否彻底消除了记忆体周期持保留态度。
美光可能仍会比以往任何时候都更强，但仍可能达不到估值所要求的程度。
公司可能确实抬高了地板，但市场似乎在定价时仿佛公司已经移除了天花板。就我个人而言，基于估值和我的分析，我认为美光最终会落在B与C情景之间，可能更接近B情景。
当前业绩可以检验执行能力、定价能力和现金流转化效率，但无法解决更大的问题：一旦供应跟上、内存价格恢复正常，美光当前的经济模式能否持续？
因此，本次讨论的问题是：HBM是否永久改变了美光的经济模式？还是投资者又一次在周期顶部附近为一家内存生产商定价？
你们怎么看？
（我无意推广，也不需要你关注我，但之前有人提到我在凭空捏造最终数字，所以这里提供一份更详细的分析版本，包含更深入的模型和图表，供有兴趣的人参考。无付费墙，对本讨论并非必需：https://open.substack.com/pub/hatedmoats/p/micron-what-happens-after-the-shortage）
As soon as hyperscalers cut capex the hype will stop, as simple as that, no need for lengthy analysis
This is simple yet effective statement, people thinking hyperscalers already transferred billions of dollars worth of capex in chips and memory companies' accounts already don't understand cash conversion cycle, orders can get cancel or delayed. 🤦♂️🤦♂️
The biggest flaw in this statement is you assume AI is temporary and optional.
Capex continues to increase, not decrease. Hyperscalers cannot afford to stop.
People on these subs love to overcomplicate simple things and over simplify complex things
I think that’s human nature in general.
Can you summarize this in 3 or 4 sentences?
Nice and very popular topic. I have a couple of opinions there.
First off, HBM was never a low margin product. Price for HBM always had a premium associated with it, simply because it is VERY HARD to make it. What was true historically (and not any more) is that it used to be a small portion of the overall revenue, as regular DRAM which is priced as a commodity still dominated the sales. This is rapidly changing now. Increasingly more revenue will be coming from a higher margin product (similar to Amazon with AWS). So the cycle floor or baseline for HBM makers will never be the same even if the supply meets the demand at some point.
Second, memories used to scale with device usage “per capita”. They were not necessarily infrastructure components. They are the infrastructure components now, and building and maintaining that infrastructure is for the first time decoupling them from per-capita limitations in terms of demand.
Another important thing is that memory makers have quietly build an impenetrable moat over the decades. If 20 years ago it was an “easy to make” commodity with some investment and “know-how”, over the decades it has become more complex, more capital intensive, and just engineering wise and R&D-wise incredibly difficult. And that is importan lt because it changes who is in position of power. If previously Apple could come and demand whatever price they wanted for DRAM. Even Apple is not going to be in that position anymore. The cards are now in the hands if Micron/Samsung/SK-Hynix, as you absolutely can’t even think of reproducing what they have done somewhere else.
All that being said, the cycle is inevitable. Whoever tells you it’s not, is delusional. They will increase capacity, and the capacity will meet the demand at some point in time. When that happens, the prices will drop and stabilize, and their valuation will correct. However, you can’t build memory capacity in a year. It will take years for that to happen. Anyone who has ever seen a memory fab will understand why.
Once we are out of the cycle, if they play this smartly I do think Micron and SK will be transformed into different companies. Companies that historically have been sitting on a commodity, will now be sitting at a technology infrastructure bottleneck (one of them at least). It is a very different power position to find youself in.
Very detailed analysis thank you
Great points.
Another post written by AI, Is this just proving dead internet theory
Hmmm, other than the intro and outro it seems odd that OP would choose to format the rest of this post in an identical layout to what an LLM would produce then
What we currently see is greed by everyone. People are no longer happy with companies growing at 5-15%
Warren Buffet has a quote on this be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful
He has a barometer of stocks and we are in the grewd cycle at the moment.
It may carry on next year who knows. Or there may be pullback
Fundamentals will never go out of fashion, just because there is shiny looking Kia coming in market, that doesn't mean its better then camry, which can do millions of kms without a sweat.
Noone knows. The best guess I have is that they’ll take some of the lower-end commodity side of DRAM and NAND at some point and put pressure on prices there. Which will be an even bigger incentive for Micron, SK and Samsung to focus more on HBM, as HBM is much higher margin. But right now they need to be careful not to put too much emphasis on HBM, because if AI capex frenzy gets slashed, they could be cought swimming naked as for most other applications conventional DRAM is good enough. But they know this and are being careful about it. Micron mentiones this in every earnings report.
This is just my opinion. I never suggested this is a great price point to buy or invest in neither of these. Im also not in a position to push anything, it’s just a post on Reddit. Chill.