r/stocks
我卖出有现金担保的看跌期权而不变得鲁莽的方法
作者卖出 $CMG 的长期实值看跌期权，旨在以折扣价接盘并赚取权利金，理由是其估值合理且增长强劲。
- Chipotle 是一家高质量企业，拥有广阔的增长空间和 15% 的预期未来增长率。
- 该股目前交易价格接近公允价值，且在 30 美元附近有较强的技术支撑。
- 卖出有现金担保的看跌期权是一种有效的策略，可以在等待以更低价格买入的同时赚取权利金。
- 持续的通胀可能会导致股价在一段时间内横盘震荡。
- 26 倍的前瞻市盈率表明该股在当前价位并未被深度低估。
$CMG 的 2027 年 6 月 17 日行权的看跌期权（LEAP ITM）看起来不错。当前价格为 32.50 美元，期权费 5.30 美元，年化收益率达 18.7%。
Chipotle 依然是一个出色的公司，增长空间还很长。目前市盈率（forward P/E）为 26 倍，未来几年预计增长 15%。如果通胀持续，股价可能会在一段时间内横盘震荡。
这是策略：
- 当你发现一家估值合理、想以更低价格买入的优质企业时，可以设定买入价比当前股价低 10% 到 20%，并利用约 3 个月的时间价值损耗。
- 或者选择期限约为 12 个月的 LEAP 期权，选择略实值（ITM）的行权价，以获取更高的期权费。
这种操作只适用于你本就打算长期持有的高质企业。务必确保它们满足以下条件之一：
- 估值合理或被低估
- 或技术分析支持其走势
$CMG 目前就是一个绝佳例子。公司当前估值处于合理水平，且 $30 附近已有三次支撑位确认。
等待一只股票跌到更便宜的价格，同时还能拿到期权费……这简直让人爱不释手！
Very important to manage your risk when selling CSPs as I’ve seen many people get too cavalier, resulting in margin calls or being forced out of their positions once they approach the strike prices well in advance of expiration.
Always leave room for error in your margin account - do not use all of it.
"Selling ATM CSP is free money" is the famous phrase of r/thetagang
At the current market I would only advise to use this at maybe 20 or 30 companies. Reliable companies that have weathered many recessions and that can't be wiped out that easily. This is not to get highest and juiciest premium. It's more thinking like an insurance company and get a high succes rate.
how deep are you actually going ITM tho, a 17% annualized on a LEAP puts sounds off if most of that is intrinsic
Just slightly above the current share price. Support has touched 3 times around $28 and to my estimations I believe they are slightly undervalued. So an ITM secured cash put of $32.50 sounds reasonable without to much risk carried anyway.
Careful with the annualized number on a deep ITM LEAP put. Most of that 5.30 premium is intrinsic, which is just the discount to strike, not compensation for risk. The part that is actually yield is the extrinsic, and on an ITM 2027 put that slice is small relative to the cash you have to secure for a full year.
So the real carry if you are not assigned is a lot thinner than 18.7 percent makes it look, and if you are assigned you own CMG at a high effective basis a year out. Cleaner way to judge a CSP is to annualize the extrinsic only against the secured cash, and only sell it on names you genuinely want at that strike. Selling far dated ITM puts inflates the headline rate while locking capital at low real return, and a 12 month single name window is exactly when these blow up.
95% of you guys get wrecked, you just slink away broke.