r/valueinvesting
在无人问津处寻找价值 - Auxly Cannabis
Auxly Cannabis 是一只深度价值股，以 6 倍自由现金流交易，且营收强劲增长、利润率扩大，并有内部人士增持。
- 估值极具吸引力，市值 2.7 亿美元，自由现金流倍数约为 6 倍。
- 运营强劲增长：第一季度营收同比增长 22%，经营现金流同比增长 102%。
- 盈利能力持续扩大，EBITDA 利润率达到 31%，毛利率扩大至 55%，且 CEO 正在增持股票。
加拿大的股票代码是 XLY.TO
美国的股票代码是 CBWTF
所有数据以加元计价
我过去几年一直持有 Auxly Cannabis 股票，当前平均成本为 0.11 加元。和许多其他大麻股一样，Auxly 在未实现收入的情况下上市，市场最终也跟上了它的节奏。经过几轮可转换债券和大量股权稀释后，公司总算挺了过来。
如今它正在蓬勃发展。首席执行官全年都在买入股票，最近更是加大了购入力度。
为什么这是一笔价值投资？我预计其所有者收益（Buffett 提倡的一个指标——即自由现金流加上维护性资本开支）将达到 4500 万加元，而公司目前市值仅为 2.7 亿加元。我认为该业务当前大约以 6 倍自由现金流估值交易。如果你现在手握 2.7 亿加元并决定买下全部 Auxly，第一年就能获得 4500 万加元的回报（假设你不想扩张）。在我看来，这就是价值投资的本质。
我让我们的老朋友 Chat GPT 总结了一些近期运营亮点：
- Auxly 在 2026 年第一季度产生了 1130 万加元的经营现金流（未考虑营运资金变动），同比增长 102%，尽管其市值仍远低于 3 亿加元。公司产生现金的速度与估值完全脱钩。
- 2026 年第一季度收入同比增长 22% 至 3980 万加元。这并非一个销售停滞的深度价值反转故事；公司同时实现了增长和现金流创造。
- 调整后 EBITDA 同比增长 65% 至 1230 万加元，达到 31% 的 EBITDA 毛利率。在营收增速高于市场平均水平的同时，能维持如此高利润率的大麻公司凤毛麟角。
- 成品大麻库存的毛利率从 48% 扩展至 55%（同比），在收入增长的同时实现利润扩张，说明这是运营效率提升的结果，而非靠打折促销换来的增长。
- 2026 年第一季度，经营现金流占 EBITDA 的转化率达到 92%。盈利正实实在在转化为现金，而非被锁在营运资金或会计调整中。
- 截至季度末，现金余额增至 4270 万加元，债务降至约 4500 万加元，使公司接近净现金状态。
- 当前总债务仅为过去十二个月调整后 EBITDA 的 0.9 倍，这一杠杆比率在大多数行业中都属于保守水平。
- 公司在 2025 财年产生的经营现金流（未考虑营运资金变动）达 3860 万加元，紧接着在 2026 年第一季度又创造了 1130 万加元，表明现金流生成并非单季偶然现象。
- Auxly 现已达到管理层批准最高 6890 万股股份回购计划的阶段，这对一个长期依赖股权稀释的大麻行业公司而言极为罕见。
- Back Forty 依然是加拿大排名第一的大麻品牌，赋予 Auxly 的竞争地位远超其市值所暗示的程度。
- 管理层表示，2026 年第一季度创下了季节性纪录，实现了收入、EBITDA 和经营现金流的全面新高，尽管一季度通常是大麻销售较弱的时期。
- 收入增长 22%，而整个加拿大休闲大麻市场同期仅增长约 2%，这意味着公司获得了显著的市场份额。
- 随着资产负债表改善，利息支出几乎减半，更多经营利润得以流向股东。
- 公司在第一季度结束时拥有超过 6000 万加元的净营运资本，使其有能力投资增长项目，而无需依赖外部融资。
- 与许多不惜代价追求增长的大麻公司不同，Auxly 目前正展现出双位数收入增长、30% 以上的 EBITDA 毛利率、正向净利润、强劲的经营现金流以及不断改善的资产负债表。
- 若将第一季度的 1130 万加元经营现金流进行年度化计算，意味着年化现金流约为 4500 万加元以上，占公司当前股权价值的相当大比例。即便考虑季节性因素和未来投资支出，其隐含的现金流收益率依然异常之高。
NOOOOOOOOOOOO NEVER NEVER NEVER GOING TO TOUCH WEED STOCK
FAR FAR AND FAR AWY FROM ME
I'm the same way with pharma. I just find this a lot easier to understand and evaluate.
I’ve been watching Auxly. I’m currently waiting for a check to clear the bank (2-5 days) so I can invest $10k in Auxly for the long haul. Today would’ve been the perfect opportunity to jump in. Hopefully it continues to go down 🤣. I also like High Tide I plan to invest $500 monthly with them for the long haul as well.
This looks potentially good, any idea why the forward PE is so much higher than trailing, market over worried or is there some reason to suspect earnings will slow?
There was a deferred tax recovery that boosted accounting income last year.
Generally speaking, accounting income isn't a great metric to look at for cannabis companies because there are significantly more non-cash items that can distort it. Ex: Cannabis companies, under IFRS, makes fair value adjustments on plants (bio assets) while they're growing and then recognize these hypothetical gains or losses before they're sold.
Many of the companies like to use EBITDA to adjust for non cash items but I prefer to just use cash from operations, owners earnings, or FCF. When evaluating a business, I want to know how much money it would actually put back into my pocket. Accounting earnings distort that number, especially when it comes to cannabis.
Yeah it looks quite promising, maybe a Peter Lynch classic. Do you have any concerns?
I can't say that I have any real current concerns, but I can mention some that I had in the past that were recently cleared up. That might give you an idea of what I'm paying attention to.
1) Capacity: Until the last couple months, I wasn't exactly sure how much more capacity they had within their current footprint before major capex would be required to grow. The CEO recently clarified that they believe they're able to increase output by more than 50% in the current footprint. They also have a lot more space available on the land (that they own, unlike many others), so they always have the option when necessary.
2) Can they grow new brands organically? Their flagship brand, Back Forty, is crushing it and making incremental gains as they slowly push out new products (new flower strain and new pre-rolls format releasing atm), but can they grow other brands? Well, late last year they created a new, more premium brand called South Point, to test the waters. Is been very y successful. Last week I saw that some data points have it showing as having entered the top ten best selling 3.5g (1/8 ounce) skus in Ontario (largest market by far)
They're very calculated with new product offerings and don't flood the market. That's fairly unique in the industry, but its a massive benefit when it comes to consistency and efficiency.
3) Where do they go after winning in Canada? While they're still making great incremental gains in Canada with new product releases and the recent release of South Point, they also recently started test shipments to the UK as a medical provider and are currently building out the processing capacity that's required to expand internationally. They're 20% owned by Imperial Brands, the tobacco company, and they're committed to helping with international expansion. I know some people have moral issues with tobacco involvement, but the pre-roll technology that IB helped with is one of (many of ) the reasons why Auxly's gross margins are so much better than everyone else's
Someone should fix their website
https://www.myforay.com
https://hibuddy.ca/products/brand?q=FORAY
This is an older brand that they barely sell under anymore
https://www.b40cannabis.com/
This is their flagship brand that makes up most of sales.
That’s a very fun way of investing, I was wanting to get more exposure to the microcaps with the biggest growth potential but didn’t know how to find them so much, thanks for that.
I’m currently in novo nordisk which is set to have a big boost in earnings with their recent expansion into the UK (where I’m from) strong take up of their new oral semaglutide. Probably my current highest conviction investment