r/investing
SpaceX的股价是我分部估值总和的两倍
作者认为SpaceX 2.5万亿美元的估值远超其1.25万亿美元的分部估值，质疑市场的非理性。
- 星链、星舰和政府合同的分部估值仅支持约1.25万亿美元，使得2.5万亿美元的价格严重高估。
- 即使对xAI等业务采用慷慨的传统分析师估值，也无法弥合与当前市值的差距。
- 近期如收购Cursor等进展并未从根本上改变核心估值逻辑。
我之前根据其各项业务的估值，将SpaceX的价值定为1.25万亿美元。（而且我相当慷慨，使用了传统分析师对xAI等业务的估值方法。）我预测IPO仍会大幅上涨，最终会达到1.9万亿美元。
现在它已经涨到2.5万亿美元，我开始自问：我是不是错了？还是说这正是“市场可以非理性地持续更久，远超你保持偿付能力的时间”那种情况？
于是我重新审视了我的估值，基本上，我依然坚持1.25万亿美元的观点。在过去一个月里，我看不到任何能让我认为它基本面价值大幅提升的理由，包括收购Cursor在内。星链消费者业务估值3800亿美元，企业版1470亿美元，星舰1700亿美元，政府合同1230亿美元……即使非常慷慨地估算，这些加起来也远远不够。
SpaceX是否存在真正的价值投资逻辑？除了指数基金和埃隆·马斯克的个人光环之外，我到底漏掉了什么？
You make a trillion dollar valuation on a loss making company with 20b annual revenue and you are looking for a real value investing case?
You’ve overvalued it by 4x
Stock price = real value * feels
Just wait until it hits $10T you are going to lose your mind.
Is this insider info? Are you Elon?
No I’m just someone that posts on Reddit about stocks and has been consistently right
Tell us what to buy then.
that reminds me, i need to uninstall cursor
Fact is, Musk is very good at driving up the "feels" in the u/LotsoPasta 's equation. There's a reason why Tesla is valued more than all other car companies combined.
I have given up trying to outguess him. I bought Tesla once when it seemed cheap. It went up by 2X after that. I didn't see any change in fundamentals, so I chickened out and sold. After I sold, it has gone up by 20X 😂 😂 FML, right?
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The hasn't sent up too many things into space until recently. He has certainly pioneered it, but there are many famous inventors that end up broke. Previous success does not guarantee future success.
BYD is eating Tesla's lunch everywhere but the US. His new pay package reflects that the electric car market is flatlining.
New Glenn has a similar price/kg to send something to space. If they can be close, SpaceX does not have the pricing power you think it does. They can't just raise prices 10 or 100 times without consequence.