r/valueinvesting
Serve Robotics似乎是少数“真实”的机器人应用场景之一，为何其股价依然死气沉沉？
作者质疑为何尽管SERV拥有合理的机器人应用场景和合作伙伴，其股价依然疲软，指出对其收入规模小和持续亏损的担忧。
- 在劳动力成本高昂的背景下，短途城市机器人配送具有真实的现实应用场景。
- 与Uber Eats、DoorDash和White Castle建立了强大的合作关系，车队不断扩张，收入持续增长。
- 收入绝对值仍然很小，而亏损依然严重，引发了对可扩展性的担忧。
- 股票缺乏获得市场溢价所需的已证明的盈利能力，陷入尴尬的中间地带。
我关注Serve Robotics (SERV) 已经有一段时间了，而这家公司真的给人一种在现实世界中具备可行产品的印象。短距离城市内的机器人配送听起来一点也不离谱，尤其是在人力成本高昂的背景下，像 Uber 这样的公司显然也想让这个模式跑通。他们已经有 Uber Eats 的合作、DoorDash、White Castle，车队规模也在持续扩大，营收增长至少已经开始显现，但股价却依然像是市场根本不信这个故事。
我的猜测是，问题出在投资者们跳过了‘这东西很酷，而且明显有用’这一部分，直接冲进了经济模型的细节里。营收确实在增长，但绝对数值仍然很小，亏损依然巨大，市场可能更希望看到的是：这真能成为一个可扩展的生意，而不是仅仅一家产品不错但运营开支巨大的公司。感觉 SERV 就卡在了一个尴尬的中间地带——它已经证明自己不只是个概念，但又还没到能让市场愿意给它真正溢价的程度。
所以现在我并不质疑它的应用场景。我更想知道的是，这只股票是不是正被同样的想法拖累：‘机器人确实很酷，但接下来得让我看到钱。’
至少我是这么理解的。好奇大家怎么看——市场是不是只是在等利润率和规模提升？还是说背后有更悲观的因素？
The main issue is that sidewalk delivery robots are basically rolling capex. The hardware degrades quickly from weather and road vibration, so the useful life of these units is short, probably around 2 to 3 years. That means a huge chunk of their operating cash flow has to go straight back into fleet replacement, behaving more like maintenance capex than growth capital. There is also the teleoperation bottleneck. They aren't fully autonomous. They still rely on remote human operators to take over in tricky spots. If they need 1 operator for every 4 or 5 active robots, the labor savings get mostly swallowed by remote wages and connectivity costs. How are you modeling their depreciation cycle and the ratio of remote operators to robots in your terminal valuation?
That’s fair, and honestly I don't have a clean terminal model on SERV yet, tbh.
But I think what you pointed out is the real bear case. If the robots are basically rolling capex and teleop stays a meaningful part of the model, then the economics are a lot less exciting than the surface-level “replace delivery labor with robots” story. That’s kind of why I’m not fully sold even though the use case itself seems real. I don’t think the question is 'does the product work', but rather 'whether the unit economics ever get good enough'.
It their major market is Asian where it is safe and peaceful, i will be interested
But it is US OF A, and this is happening everyday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XiJC3qE45c
no i don't think they can expand much
Same here, it can work in Singapore, Korea, Japan. In my neighbourhood its just free pizza and some parts for your next battlebot
I went looking for a signal in the insider data and didn't find much either direction. The 174 sale rows over 36 months look like heavy selling, but most of it is CEO and other officers doing sell-to-cover on RSU vesting for tax (footnote F1 on every transaction). Strip that out and the truly discretionary selling is under $1M across all officers and directors over 3 years. On the buy side, only 2 small open-market buys totaling about $270K, neither recent. Nobody inside is buying despite the slide to $6, but nobody is actively bailing either.
Yeah, that’s basically where I landed too after going through the filings.
The giant list of insider selling looks way scarier than it really is because most of it is just RSU vesting / tax-withholding stuff, not execs smashing the sell button and running for the exits. Kashani and Brian Read both had those June Form 4s and they were basically the same F1 sell-to-cover tax while still holding a lot of stock after.
The part that actually matters is what you said after that: there’s also basically no meaningful insider buying this slide. So to me it’s not a bearish 'insiders are dumping' signal, but it’s also not some hidden bullish tell either. It’s more just, neutral. Nobody’s really bailing, but nobody’s buying with their own money at $6 either. So I kind of agree this is less an insider story and more a 'do you believe they can actually scale the robot fleet / revenue fast enough' story.
Do you like intuitive surgical?
I don't have any exposure to intuitive surgical, tbh.
But after reading about it, to me it’s one of the robotic industry names where you can clearly see the moat. It’s not just 'robot surgery is a cool theme', they already have the installed base, the surgeon training ecosystem, and the recurring instruments/service revenue that makes the whole thing way stickier than a normal med tech product. I just think of it very differently from SERV. With SERV I’m still trying to figure out how much of the future economics the market believes in. With ISRG, the business is already proven.
CCXI now. Look at today’s news.
Nope, only Amazon using robots productively, others are just burning money.
What I can never get a straight answer on is the unit economics once you strip out the subsidies. How many deliveries a day does a single robot have to do before it beats just paying a courier, and is the fleet anywhere close to that yet? That one number is the whole bull or bear case, and nobody talking about the stock seems to know it.
Their marketing is a joke. They are drawing on robots and that is a marketing? Where are the videos of delivery of laundry? My average price is 8.5 but I think I am gonna sell with a loss. The tech in interesting but...
They did acquire a company to move into hospitals though, which does give them a portion of the fleet that’s somewhat protected from bad weather/people messing with the robots. That gives me hope for their long term prospects
did you see their sidewalk robot? with the two big eyes? i sold after i saw it. and i mhappy cuz else i'd be down a lot now lol. i was also searching for a robotics company in the past.
they are going to need to deploy drone delivery or it's just not gonna be interesting.
did you see their sidewalk robot? with the two big eyes? i sold after i saw it. and i mhappy cuz else i'd be down a lot now lol. i was also searching for a robotics company in the past.
they are going to need to deploy drone delivery or it's just not gonna be interesting.