r/valueinvesting
我对 Reddit (RDDT) 的真实看法
Reddit 是一家利润率高且受 AI 推动的强劲企业，但缺乏像同行那样的日常用户习惯。
- 财务指标优异，收入连续7个季度增长60%以上，毛利率超91%，且资本支出接近于零。
- 在 AI 时代具有独特的结构性优势，既是主要的训练语料库，也是获取真实人类视角的目的地。
- 主要风险在于执行层面而非竞争层面，这使得公司极具价值。
- 产品引擎未能跟上业务表现，缺乏培养日常用户习惯的强迫循环机制。
- 美国日活（5000万）与周活（2亿）差距巨大，表明用户多为偶发性、意图驱动的使用，而非自然的日常参与。
我最近研究了 Reddit，它对我来说确实看起来是一家非常强劲的公司：
- 连续七个季度营收增长超过60%，
- 毛利率超过91%，
- EBITDA 利润率约40%，
- 几乎零资本支出。
这些指标让我觉得这家公司处于值得买入的区间。我喜欢它33倍的前瞻市盈率，尽管对某些人来说这个数字偏高。这背后的原因是它的结构性优势。
这个平台建立在二十年来真实的用户对话基础之上，而这一资产在人工智能主导的互联网时代正变得越来越珍贵。
像 Facebook（尤其是 LinkedIn）这类平台的内容正在被 AI 摘要所商品化或流量被冲击，但 Reddit 却能同时受益于 AI 波浪的两面：
- 成为大型语言模型的主要训练语料库；
- 当人们想要一个真实的人类视角而非机器生成的答案时，他们依然会回到 Reddit。
AI 越多，Reddit 就越重要。
有一点我必须指出的是，尽管业务引擎表现极为出色，但产品引擎却未能跟上步伐。
特别是管理层关注到一个问题：Reddit 的美国日均活跃用户约为5000万，而美国周均活跃用户却达到约2亿。
一个真正形成日常使用习惯的平台，不会出现这种比例失衡。如果你看看 Facebook、Instagram、TikTok 或 YouTube 在相似成熟阶段的数据，日活与周活的比例要紧密得多（因为它们的推荐流设计就是为了制造成瘾循环——你打开不是因为有特定问题，而是期待里面有什么有趣的东西）。
目前，Reddit 对大多数用户而言还做不到这一点。绝大多数周活跃用户的使用场景仍以目标驱动为主。偶发性用户无法自然养成每日使用的习惯。
尽管如此，这家公司仍然极具价值，因为其主要风险是执行层面的，而非竞争层面的。
希望能听到一些见解，或者我可能忽略的明显角度。
I've been a Reddit user for a long time. I'll go through periods of checking it every day and weeks where I have less interest. If I get really excited about a hobby or sports event this is the best place to discuss it.
Social media is a hard industry to survive in. We've watched sites rise and fall: Tumblr, Myspace, Google+. Only a handful have ever broken through to reach the scale where it becomes impossible to replace. Facebook and Instagram will survive. X and Bluesky may not.
Reddit spent 20 years focused on building a user base before it went public. I've watched it go from a niche nerdy website to a mainstream platform. I think that will continue. It's the network effect. Growth begets growth.
That's why I'm not stressed about the daily active users. Reddit is growing fine. It's one of the most visited sites in the world and continues to reach more people.
At this point it's just a revenue monetisation play. The only reason a website as popular as Reddit is only valued at $30b is because it was extremely slow to roll out ads.
There was some good logic behind the delayed ad rollout. You need to focus on building a user base first. Same reason Zuckerberg fought against ads in Facebook initially.
Reddit hasn't historically shown many ads. That's why we see 70% growth mutiples – because it's starting from a very low base.
The most compelling case for me is that Reddit has already done the hard yards of aquiring users and now just needs to get a bit better at making money off them. So far, it seems to be working.
Reddit needs to clamp down on bots if they want to preserve that,
Imagine when LLM based bots are posting on reddit and being used to train LLMs which then post on reddit themselves.
They need to keep it under control but reddit is by far the best place on the internet regarding bots. Anywhere else on the internet there would be bots already in this post. It just isnt very annoying or noticeable here other than generic karma farm posts.
Red dot plane picture
/j
You got the words already,
you should try numbers next.
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Are you aware of how Reddit makes money?
Reddits purpose is entertainment and add revenue.
How the fuck could those be regulated and bundled for utility?
remove bots = pump
Ad revenue is about to be reset, regulated and bundled for utility? Or what are you talking about?
Still regretting it for not buying at 120. Will buy it if it touches 135 again
Yeah imagine you are an advertiser and the bots engaging with your ads and you get charged per click or per view
So even though Reddit makes >95% of its revenue with zero association to AI, your take is that future AI changes are going to make reddit unprofitable?
Are you just being emotional or can you actually spell out the logic
You know, when the Reddit was created monetization was probably thought of in ads and premium subs. Even if AI does slow down a bit from here (personally think there's still a lot of room for it to grow), Reddit makes a big portion of their revenue from non AI sources.
If they're too many clicks with not enough conversions, that makes things bad for the company
You make a valid argument. I dont check Reddit every single day. I use Reddit to learn something, research product reviews, figure out how to fix something, get the public’s opinion on a home service bill, etc. I’m on here to learn things and read other people’s perspectives. It helps solve a wide variety of problems in my life.
It’s honestly the only platform where I can ask for help and not fear any judgment from my friends, colleagues, former colleagues, family, acquaintances, classmates, etc. You don’t get that with Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, etc. Their systems are designed for them to recommend mostly people you know in your phone contacts or mutual friends. And Facebook, IG, X, Snapchat are just news outlet, which is why everyone checks it everyday. Its make me dumber if I’m being real with you lol.
What I am bullish on is how helpful it is for normal people like me and you. I recommend Reddit to any younger kid (I’m in my mid-30s) and they find it immediately useful for any type of research.
I’ve heard CEOs (50+ year olds) of really large companies tell their staff they use Reddit to research topics. We all know a lot of millennials use it. Now Gen Alpha is starting using it more and more.
I’m bullish on the user base growing simply because of how helpful it is.
I’ma hold this stock forever!