r/investing
如果无人机建设主题成真，Unusual Machines 可能是有趣的参与方式
UMAC 定位为美国本土无人机供应链的“卖水人”，尽管面临规模化风险，但受益于 NDAA 政策。
- NDAA 限制和国防部推动本土无人机供应商带来了有利的政策顺风。
- 近期运营执行强劲，采购订单创纪录，收入增长且现金储备充足。
- 战略上定位为“卖水人”，提供必不可少的 NDAA 合规组件，而非作为主承包商参与竞争。
- 公司规模极小且股票波动性高，投资风险较大。
- 扩大制造规模困难，国防无人机的繁荣并不能自动保证轻松盈利。
我花了一些时间研究并关注了 UMAC，我认为如果美国真的打算建立本土的无人机供应链，这家公司至少值得我们多加留意。
让我感兴趣的是，UMAC 并不试图成为下一个大型主承包商。它更像是在无人机领域的一次‘挖金铲子’式投资——电机、飞控系统、FPV 系统、电池、各类组件，基本上是美国若想大规模生产符合 NDAA 标准的无人机所必须存在的核心零部件，而不是依赖外国零件。
这也正是我不认为这里的看涨逻辑仅仅是‘无人机股票很热门’的原因。政策实际上已经朝着这个方向倾斜：从 NDAA 的限制措施，到国防部对本土供应商的兴趣，再到整体上减少对进口无人机硬件依赖的趋势，这为像 UMAC 这样的公司创造了实实在在的机会。
当然，执行能力也是争论的核心。从积极角度看，这家如此小的公司最近的增长简直惊人。收入持续流入，他们提到过创纪录的采购订单和积压需求，而且在完成多次融资后，手头现金也远超公司规模应有的水平。
但我也理解质疑的声音。它依然是家极小的公司，股价依然波动剧烈，而且防御型无人机热潮并不意味着利润会自动滚滚而来。扩大制造规模本身就很困难。
尽管如此，我认为目前的布局比外界评价的要有趣得多。如果美国的无人机推动真能转化为持续的支出，而非仅仅停留在新闻标题上，UMAC 将会以我们目前无法衡量的方式获益。
很好奇大家怎么看：是认为它真是一家有实力的本土无人机供应链玩家，还是只是借着国防/无人机叙事炒作的题材股？或者其他观点？
The whole sector is solid right now. UMAC, RCAT, LPTH, AVAV, KTOS, DPRO, ONDS.
I believe the US has 55-70b slated for next year with this current administration.
There is also a new ETF - DRZN, but I would hold off on that for now.
Market just went through a downswing, but CSP and long dated Leaps are strong plays. China just restricted a bunch of stuff, but the US is looking to build their own supply chains and pipelines.
NFA of course, but I believe this is the next big sector to pop off. I also am looking at vertical integrations into the Space sector with drones given countries are trying to establish moon bases.
Happy hunting.
Fun times ahead.
I'm long in RCAT, but honestly some of the recent compensation shenanigans and punting on reporting is really starting to piss me off.
Which one would you do weeks on? If you weren't rolling in cash?
Every drone needs a battery. AMPX
Yeah, just researched, AMPX also looks very interesting. Will definitely follow it more now!
The picks-and-shovels framing is the right way to think about it, but the real test is whether DoD and prime contractors actually standardize on domestic component suppliers at scale or just use NDAA compliance as a checkbox while keeping costs low with workarounds. Execution risk at this size is real, and the gap between record purchase orders and consistent profitable revenue is where most small defense suppliers stumble.
Yeah that’s a fair concern. Execution is the biggest risk in any business and especially where it depends on govt standardisation on policies.
The reason I’m still a little constructive is that they’ve at least started turning that theme into actual relationships/orders, Lantronix, the $5M+ Powerus counter-UAS order, and now even the $30M strategic investment into Powerus to deepen that supply chain link. So it’s not only policy buzz anymore. But yeah, the real test is still whether that turns into repeat, profitable revenue.
I have a hefty position in the JEDI etf, should be interesting