r/valueinvesting
你现在买入亚马逊而不是谷歌的理由是什么？
作者因估值、AI云利润率和算力对冲更看好谷歌，同时质疑亚马逊对零售/AWS的依赖。
- 估值更低，且通过Gemini和搜索有效对冲算力过剩风险。
- 高度集成的云提供商，AI导向的合同带来更好的长期利润率。
- 能够利用非云利润降价并挤压竞争对手的市场份额。
- 过度依赖零售和AWS盈利，存在潜在的生存威胁。
- 容易受到谷歌利用非云利润降价并挤压市场份额的冲击。
- 在目前的AI竞赛中被认为落后于谷歌。
我没什么特定立场；我同时持有这两只股票，而且对亚马逊相比谷歌的看涨逻辑很好奇。
从我的角度看，谷歌目前看起来是更优的选择。他们的估值更低，且在潜在算力过剩的情况下有稳固的缓冲——因为拥有Gemini和搜索业务，一旦算力成本下降，这些业务将大受裨益。他们可以说是云服务领域整合最彻底的公司，这应能带来更好的长期利润率，而且他们相当大一部分云合同都聚焦于AI，而非单纯的存储，而AI相关业务的利润率更高。
亚马逊显然处境不错，但似乎更依赖零售和AWS来盈利。我认为这可能构成一种生存威胁——具体来说，我担心谷歌可以利用其非云业务的利润来压低价格，把客户拉进自己的生态体系，从而挤压亚马逊的市场份额。虽然我承认亚马逊在自动化方面有潜力，但目前来看，谷歌明显是AI竞赛中的领跑者。
能听听相反的观点吗？为什么你们现在更看好亚马逊？
Have both. Buy Google in volume a year ago, buy Microsoft and Amazon now.
I thought Microsoft would bounce today; I guess I'll buy more tomorrow if it's still down.
What possibly led you to believe it would bounce today? Thinking the stock goes will go up on any random day is like thinking a football team favored by 2.5 points will win the game. You don’t know what will happen. Over time though, more winning days than losing days. Stop trying to guess what a stock will do in a particular day or week lol, that’s pointless.
AWS is an absolute behemoth. There's a reason why even taking a single percent of the market share is such a big deal in the cloud world, and guess who owns a majority of that already?
I still prefer Google over Amazon, but AWS is not to be taken lightly.
My reason is that Amazon are AI benefit in 4 ways and it’s not yet priced in.
- AWS as any cloud provider is gonna see growth from AI
- they are making their own chips and are considering selling them.
I’m necessarily saying that Amazon is a better business than Google. But the market already fully understand Google, the market doesn’t fully understand Amazon yet.
The robotics programme they have in place is also going to mean a serious reduction in cost too in the future.
I have been doing a lot of digging and Amazon is creating its own chip. Amazon has a lot of room to grow and it’s not even valued at 3T. So I think there is room to run
Amazon has been making Titanium for a while. Same with Googles chip. The only one that’s “new” ish is Microsoft starting to build Maia
I think Amazon is more of a long-term call option at this point. They are investing so much into chips, robotics, leo all the while continuing to build in strength for the core retail. Over the short term, we’re not gonna see results in earnings.
I’m not adding to my positions in either one yet, neither is stupid cheap. Out of the big ones, Microsoft and Meta are much more undervalued
I own both but have a higher concentration in Amazon right now.
They just haven’t run up like Google quite yet.
That’s it. They will run it up.
I think I prefer Google overall but I think people are heavily underrating Amazon here. There is no company in the world that can match Amazon's scope or overall importance. It does 742B in revenue (TTM) which is almost double Google and puts it in a class of its own. Amazon is one of the best setup companies to lead/benefit from the AI boom as it's logistical business is tailor made for physical AI and it is the world's largest cloud provider. If that wasn't enough, Amazon is the #1 investor and partner for Anthropic which is the world's leading LLM.
The knock on Amazon is it doesn't have the same margins tech companies like Microsoft and Google have. However, Amazon margins have been improving as it continues to show success in high-margin areas becoming the 3rd biggest advertiser.
I love goog but don’t own it. Hate bezos but amazon just invested in pre ipo anthropic so there’s that
Doesn't Google own more anthropic than Amazon?
And that's just a Google hedge, Google is better than anthropic. And Google has a million other investments, angles, etc . Waymo, SpaceX/asts, quantum, fission shit... Etc
And they will benefit the most if physical AI becomes a thing.
trash CEOs are the best at producing returns. youll shoot yourself in the foot trying to ethically invest