r/valueinvesting
将迪士尼作为价值投资标的
作者认为迪士尼下行空间有限，具备价值投资潜力，看好流媒体盈利、体育转播权及适度股息。
- 估值具有吸引力（市净率约1.6，市销率约1.8），下行空间有限且有适度股息。
- 流媒体业务已实现盈利，这是市场尚未完全定价的重要催化剂。
- 即将迎来强大的体育赛事转播阵容（NFL、NBA、NHL、超级碗），预期8月财报表现稳健。
- 过去5年股价表现停滞，收入增长停滞且缺乏成长性。
- 仍面临过去DEI争议带来的负面情绪，以及疫情对体验类业务的持续影响。
已经观察了好久，等待合适的入场时机。
对于至少持有五年的人来说，这段时间简直是毫无作为的死钱。
当前股价约为账面价值的1.6倍，市销率1.8。
公司不会倒闭，适度的股息让你有理由耐心等待。
当前估值是多种因素共同作用的结果。负面情绪源于五年前与DEI相关的争议（当时两位CEO），收入停滞不前，缺乏增长，疫情期间的游轮、主题公园和度假村业务也遭受重创……
如今股价刚刚高于账面价值，下行空间有限，我预期将看到稳步增长。
让我惊讶的是，自从财报披露流媒体业务实现盈利后，股价却一直没有变动……这正是我一直在等待的信号。
与NFL的合同尤其值得关注。NHL总决赛、NBA总决赛以及超级碗……
预计八月将发布一份扎实的季度报告。
技术面显示抛售压力正在减弱，可能出现反转，进而推动持续上涨趋势。
仓位不算重，但目前持有145股，还有几份看涨期权。
Been dead money for 20 years
I sold out of mine this year, I'm just not sensing a catalyst up anytime soon. I do think there's minimal downside, the dividend is just ok. I really want to invest back into it at some point bc it would be great for portfolio diversification, they just need to somehow pump their Disney + subscriptions
Agree…
Something going on with the NFL and ESPN.
NFL took a 10% stake in ESPN… Redzone to broadcast on espn….
Another thing… partnered with a company to optimize ad revenue using ai. Probably just trying to make news, but there may be something real.
Regardless, I like it as a place to park capital and capture a recovery off a technical multi-year bottom.
Long term trend line and all technical indicators are signaling…
I expect a modest beat this coming quarter. Should see 115 a share if so. Maybe continue to 124 over a month if significant beat..
I also don’t see much else right now.
Target played well using simplistic analysis. Bought in between 88-90 and took profit around 122$ in my Roth.
My advice is to stay away.
The entire traditional media industry is a value trap. Disney, Warner Bros., Discovery, Paramount, etc... all value traps.
The problems are systemic.
Media is an extremely competitive business. NFL just does contracts with highest bidder. Dividend isn’t great with today’s rates.
It might do well, but I think there are better stocks for growth. As you said it's a steady value play. The brand is strong, but they face fierce competition. Also, I don't know how much longer Disney fans are going to stay loyal while prices climb. I have been a regular Disney World visitor in the past, but I'm increasingly exploring other alternatives.
I encourage you to always zoom out on charts. holding disney for 10 years, you would have basically broke even. Things can always change, but why not buy something that has created massive shareholder value over the last decade? there are plenty of very strong beat up names.
I've been DCAing as of late. Was waiting for sub 70s but that might take a while (or never). Lots of value waiting to be unlocked with the right leadership.
Do you believe DIS will outperform the S&P or Nasdaq? If so, what is your timeframe? And what is your reasoning?
They also are more than just a streaming service
It’s a buy in my opinion. They own the most media and media rights out of any company
They can’t really make money on their TV stuff because they pay so much to sports leagues fur rights fee. And there isn’t really a solution to this because they’re competing for these rights with companies that have near infinite amounts of money.
Disney owns some of the most valuable brands on the planet and when a business like that trades at close to what its assets are actually worth on paper rather than at a premium, it is the market saying something is seriously broken with the company. But I do think the streaming business turning profitable is a bigger deal than the stock price reaction suggests because for years Disney was spending billions to build Disney+ and the market was punishing them for it, so crossing into profitability removes a major overhang. Personally I'd wait to see a sign of momentum returning before trying to build a position, fine with missing out on buying at the bottom. Good luck to you!
you can say im in the know. i would avoid. not going anywhere.
I owned it for a while and sold for small profit. Competition is fierce, with AI it’s easier to make movies than ever before. Linear tv business is slowly dying. Theme parks are great but it’s high capital business.