r/baba
自2021年首次买入阿里巴巴股票以来，我第一次考虑清仓
作者考虑在持有5年后清仓BABA，原因是中国宏观疲软、云业务资本开支巨大以及管理层错误的杂货扩张战略。
- 股票目前严重超卖，预计将迎来大幅反弹。
- 中国经济的长期潜力依然向好。
- 低估了中国宏观经济目前的疲软程度以及复苏所需的时间。
- 未来2-3年云和AI的巨额投资将吓退投资者。
- 管理层固执地重返低利润的杂货业务，导致公司臃肿，而非专注于云和AI。
从130美元一路定投到低点的60多美元，然后又回升到160美元区间。
但这是五年来第一次，我开始考虑是否该卖出全部持仓。
我知道中国经济长期前景依然向好，但我可能严重低估了当前经济的疲软程度，以及这次复苏究竟需要多长时间。
尽管云计算的故事听起来很美好，但未来两到三年内将投入的巨大资金，恐怕会让所有投资者纷纷逃离。
你现在已经看到了。
再加上管理层固执地想重回生鲜零售业务——而这恰恰是2021年导致公司变成臃肿巨兽的原因，而不是像最初计划的那样专注云+AI。
让美团去经营那利润率低得离谱的生鲜配送业务吧。别再害怕自己变得无关紧要，因为没人用你的App了。
把注意力放回未来，回到过去几年一直承诺的云+AI方向。
我现在当然不会卖，股票已经严重超卖，我确信它会像往常一样迎来强劲反弹。
但等它恢复之后，我可能真的就不再当价值投资者了，直接换成$VT躺平算了。
至少这样还能保留一些中国市场的敞口，但比例上也符合全球市场整体规模。
说实话，我都不敢相信自己居然在写这些话，因为我原本以为这是一只可以永远持有的股票，可现在过了五年……我也不确定了。
你知道那句老话吗：‘疯狂的定义就是重复做同一件事，却期待不同的结果？’
嗯，也许这话还真有点道理。
After you sell, it will go up 500%. Please sell thanks
The best part is, it definitely won’t at all lmao
That was what happened to me in META - bought in below $100 - held until it hit $300. Then it dropped below $100.
Was so sure that META is becoming irrelevant due to Tiktok and not happy about Meta's massive waste in the Metaverse investment. After I sold, it skyrocketed.
And to add insult to injury, I held on to my China stocks - including Baba.
This stock is trash until they release PuPu
Imagine if Google started buying grocery stores
Insanity
Not the same at all. baba is retail first, so it is more likely amzn bought a grocery store which amzn did
I mean... Amazon did buy a grocery store and that's the closest American equivalent to BABA.
I know. It's beyond dumb.
They are so scared of losing relevance by people not using their apps anymore that they'd rather light up piles or cash instead of actually using it to innovate and keep people inside their ecosystem.
Being bearish on Alibaba because they spend money on "getting into the grocery business" is like being bearish on Google because the CEO once expensed a taxi ride you didn't agree with
Being bearish on Alibaba because of a lack of AI + cloud investments is like being bearish on spacex because of lack of hype/optimism
Being bearish on Alibaba because you realize there's an economic downturn and a price war going on is bizarre. The potential of either of these ending is a colossal positive, not a negative
If you want to be an Alibaba bear, you have to give up trying to think rationally or logically - there are no logical or rational arguments available
You need to ascend above rationalism and embrace reasons like "The chart told me it's about to go down" or "The ticker symbol is cursed" or "I can see the future, 3% red tomorrow"
Ascend, and become a Mystic Bear
I wish Reddit would let us change usernames. Mystic Bear sounds awesome.
I agree it's way oversold to be selling right now. Might be lowest daily RSI ever. It's rough holding, had chance to sell and buying into other positions that could have profited big time already.
Some other stocks are also starting to get hit hard: MSFT, ADBE, META. Those stocks are slowly starting to look like better value than BABA.
There's always many tailwinds for BABA that's keep me holding but new negative news keeps popping up.
I think next quarter will be very telling. AI compute should be booming, big cloud price hikes, food wars suppose to be improving. If after all these and BABA can't give a blowout earnings, I don't see much more hope.
I get how you're feeling. I've been averaging up too, buying more in the $130s after accumulating lower in the 70s.
That said, selling now feels a bit like capitulating near the bottom. The sentiment around China is about as bad as I've seen it in years, and that's usually when everyone suddenly finds a hundred reasons why the stock is uninvestable.
If you're looking at the Tank Seng, the 22,000-23,000 range is the key area. It's either going to act as major resistance or become support if we can hold above it. That'll tell us a lot about where things go next.
Personally, I'm just holding. Could be dead money for a while longer, sure. But after sitting through the drop from the highs and averaging in through all the volatility, selling into peak pessimism doesn't feel like the move for me.
Near the bottom? This is literally the beginning of the bear market for Tank Seng.
China is part of the story, but this shit performance was also majorly caused by stupid management decisions. They just simply lack business acumen. For example, look at Tencent, which was very briefly close to its previous ATHs despite china macro pressure due to better management and business decisions. They are putting money with superior ROI rather than just chasing the next hype and trying to get into everything. They also time share buybacks very well, buying heavily when shares trade at a discount. Compare this to BABA which has been nowhere near its ATH
We all think we are value investors but we are really more of a bag holders anonymous support group.
Great America?
Is this satire? 🤣