r/valueinvesting
莱茵金属 (RHM)：市场刚刚给出了一个折扣价？
莱茵金属盈利增长强劲且 PEG 比率低，近期的回调提供了极具吸引力的价值投资机会，尽管存在宏观风险。
- 预计 EPS 将在两年内翻倍，实现爆发式增长，且 PEG 比率仅为 0.5-0.6，相比大盘极具吸引力。
- 德国重新武装和北约增加国防预算带来强劲的宏观顺风，导致订单积压增加和巨大的经营杠杆。
- 到 2027 年营收达到 200 亿欧元的路径清晰，国防制造将为底线利润带来显著贡献。
- 国防支出可能会放缓，或者政府可能会推迟采购计划。
- 乌克兰冲突的缓和速度可能快于预期，从而降低重建军队的紧迫性。
- 当前激进的盈利增长预测可能被证明过于乐观。
所有人都在为最近的回调感到恐慌，但基本面似乎毫不在意。
大约每股930欧元时，莱茵金属的估值看起来像是一个成长型股票，而这家公司的盈利预计在未来两年内将爆炸式增长。
数据惊人：
2025年每股收益（EPS）：约18.5欧元
2026年EPS预测：约28.5欧元（+54%）
2027年EPS预测：约38.5欧元（+35%）
这基本上意味着在短短两个财年内，盈利翻倍。
然而，尽管有如此强劲的增长，RHM的PEG比率却只有0.5到0.6，这通常是投资者梦寐以求的水平。
相比之下：
大多数优质工业股的PEG都高于1
许多AI概念股的PEG远超2
莱茵金属每年盈利增速超过40%，却以接近成熟工业企业的估值交易，而非高增长公司
华尔街到底漏掉了什么？
市场似乎只关注短期新闻和合同得失。
与此同时：
德国正在重新武装
北约成员国正在增加国防预算
弹药需求仍远超生产能力
莱茵金属的订单 backlog 持续扩大
管理层目标是到2027年实现约200亿欧元的收入
收入路径：
100亿 → 140亿 → 200亿
由于国防制造具有巨大的经营杠杆，每新增一条生产线，利润就会大幅增加。
真正有趣的是：
最近的抛售发生时，分析师仍在预测着多数软件公司都会羡慕的盈利增长。
如果到2027年EPS达到约38.5欧元，即使市场愿意支付25倍市盈率，这家公司的价值也远超当前价格。
看空逻辑：
国防开支放缓
乌克兰冲突比预期更快缓和
政府推迟采购计划
当前增长预测过于乐观
看多逻辑：
欧洲几十年来在国防领域投资不足，目前才刚刚开始重建军事能力。
如果属实，莱茵金属就不是一次性的战争题材炒作。
而是一场持续十年的重新武装故事。
问题不在于莱茵金属能否增长，而在于市场是否严重低估了这一增长周期的持续时间。
我是不是漏掉了什么？还是说，这可能是目前欧洲市场最具吸引力的PEG调整后机会之一？
在按下反对按钮、称这是AI幻觉之前，请先提出一些能带来价值的观点，提前感谢。
I feel like ongoing conflicts have shown that having the better, more expensive and shiny material isn't everything on the battlefield.
I’m eyeing Indra Sistemas (IDR) which fits the same thesis but is more aligned to drone warfare as well as civilian airspace.
They’re missing that the company is based in Germany and it sucks to make business in Germany.
The market priced RHM as a 50 billion revenue company in 2030. Therefore, the order book has to expand significantly until then. Investors are now considering that government will reduce their spending spree and cancel some of their big planned projects (e.g. the naval vessels cancelled yesterday). Additionally, market now considers that a higher share of the budget will be reallocated to newer weapon systems like drones and space systems instead of ground troops. Nevertheless, CEO is constantly buying so I‘m personally not worried at all.
Are these earning forecasts taking account of the loss of the contract from the German government for the frigates?
Was never in the RHM order book. Frigate volume was 12 bn while order book for maritime systems end of Q1 was 5.5bn.
Ok so this does show some of AI's shortcomings in the OP.
Certainly interesting framing but it's missing some context that developed yesterday: Germany cancelled the F126 frigate programme, nixing a potential €12.8B naval opportunity that Rheinmetall had hoped to secure following its €1.5 billion acquisition of NVL... Unfortunate stuff. The stock dropped nearly 19% on that. That's not mere market overreaction, it's a material revenue kick in the nuts being repriced.
The PEG thesis therefore rests on forward EPS estimates that are already looking shaky. Q1 2026 EPS came in below consensus and the business is now asking investors to trust its earnings assumptions after losing its biggest naval growth opportunity. The backlog is real and the rearmament story hold, but at a 60x trailing PE you're betting on perfect execution...
Maybe wait for the NATO summit in July to see which way the wind blows.
Meaning they have do obey german law and fight with german bureaucracy. Good luck with that :D
As a german I advise you to stay away from my country. Your health and mental health will thank you later.
Also Germany wipes it’s ass with the tax treaty they have with my country to avoid double taxation - dividends are taxed at 30% at the source instead 15% like they are supposed to. Technically I can apply to a rebate to german tax officials, but the costs and time involved make it entirely untenable if you are a private investor investing pennies.
Because Rheinmetall just lost a big contract (frigates) and a major competitor KNDS is about to do IPO soon.
oh no.. if it's discussed on valueinvesting it will keep dropping
I fundamentally do not trust European governments to follow through on their spending commitments
Nein.
This valuation is a product of the masses thinking: War up, Rheinmetal up.
In reality this is a company as dynamic as a state ministry with a lot of guys called “Dieter” in Birkenstocks and shortsleeve flannel shirts that are expected to win over the competition.
Can you make an actual Point? Without Just insulting someone?