r/stockmarket
美光营收同比增长345%。这仅仅是内存周期，还是更大的趋势？
美光营收同比大增345%引发争论：AI/HBM需求是创造了持久的结构性转变，还是仅仅是内存周期的又一次见顶？
- 尽管存在历史周期性，但345%的同比营收增长令人震惊，不容忽视。
- AI需求，尤其是HBM和数据中心需求，可能会创造一个更持久、结构更优的周期。
- 内存业务在历史上具有高度周期性，呈现繁荣与萧条交替的模式。
- 当前的增长可能仅仅是周期顶部的设置，利润率和营收最终会回落。
美光刚刚报告了同比增长345%的营收，这数字说实话真是惊人。
我明白内存行业周期性很强，美光历来就是典型的过山车式生意。但即便考虑了周期因素，这种营收增长幅度也很难忽视。
对我来说更大的问题是：AI需求是否正在为内存创造一个更持久的周期，尤其是随着高带宽内存（HBM）和数据中心需求在故事中占比越来越大。
这是否只是又一次周期顶峰的布局，最终利润和营收会回落？还是说美光正进入一个比以往周期结构性更好的阶段？
好奇大家对MU的看法：是被过度炒作的周期股，还是被低估的AI受益者？
People are fine with them not diving in since they can afford to wait... For now.
Apple is unique to the rest of the mag7 in that they are a hardware and closed software business. They released a phone with "AI" capabilities that flopped and now pivoting to Google, and still it sold like crazy.
They are essentially the hedge if all this AI is overhyped as they didn't triple (or quadruple) their capex with no return. Although internally they use AI like crazy but that's a couple billion at most a rounding error.
Most non-investors of apple are asking what's next. You can't live off of peripherals and walled software forever. They probably could but at what valuation.
Their capacity is booked out for a couple of years. They are selling every scrap they can, at enterprise pricing. They shitcanned Crucial in an attempt the meet demand for ai. They are building fabs in the US, but those won't be online for a couple of years. So probably not a peak, but probably a couple of solid years ahead.
What's most shocking to me is how surprised everyone is they beat massively, grew massively, and guided massively considering we can basically trace every cent of this from the hyperscaler capex.
This entire cycle is a wealth transfer from hyperscalers to semiconductor companies. At some point, they will need to stop increasing CapEx at the rate they are, which will result in stagnation of earnings. Considering memory is a commodity, that might happen at the same time you get margin compression as supply demand balances.
Once again this all comes back to the CapEx. Do they keep increasing it? Or do we hit a point where supply-demand for compute comes into balance? My bet is on the latter given compute is also a commodity.
If you think the capex boom keeps accelerating: short capex spenders / long capex receivers.
If you believe in high school level macroeconomics: long capex spenders / short capex receivers.
This isn't really a hot take, the market has figured it out but has been heavily betting on the former. Not sure the exact number, but the correlation between IGV and SOX must be nearly -1 over the last 6 months.
Same. MU was my top conviction buy to by last summer.
Market is already punishing the hyperscalers. If they keep spending like toddlers with their daddy's credit card, they will see some insane punishment by the market.
But for now, we must goon.
It's a cycle. All of these semiconductor and memory stocks will revert to the mean. It's just a matter of when. This revenue and cash flow growth will stop and they will have a parabolic move down that is maybe even more violent than the move up.
It would be in trouble in a way that the large indexes are dragging it down, but from a company perspective they are unscathed. At worse they roll back their AI capabilities, which are currently at par with what they have now.
But yeah tech as a whole would come crashing down.
you use it for free, would you pay a lot of money to have access to it so AI companies can actually make money? The data says most people will not.
This time is different because the most valuable companies with insane cash flows are spending their money because losing the race to compute will determine the winners vs losers.
well that assumes spending money on AI will actually make you a winner instead of a massive loser if AI doesn't actually work out
But they will need it which is more demand.
Hey, after seeing your comment I looked into BOT (asuning you mean Robostrategy). While I do like what I see, their holdings etc., it kinda seems like a worse-valued ETF. Why buy BOT, rather than a regular ETF?
Yup you can see how spooked the markets were coming into their earnings. Even now people are taking profits on mu because they know it won’t last.
The reason consumer spending was cyclical still applies to datacenters. Consumers upgraded when there was a big new jump in performance. We are seeing a bunch of new build out right now, so a new type of cycle is being created, but it is still a cycle. Everyone has bought blackwell right now, so there has to be a significant justification in ROI to rip that out and install whatever new one nvidia creates. Maybe vera rubin offers that, but we don't really know yet.