r/thetagang
为什么我今天卖出 $CMG 看跌期权而不是直接买入股票
作者卖出 $CMG 现金担保看跌期权以更低成本买入股票，理由是其基本面强劲、具定价权且估值合理。
- 品牌实力强，拥有定价权，且通过 Chipotlanes 拥有广阔的扩张空间。
- 营收和盈利持续增长，26倍的远期市盈率估值合理。
- 与直接买入股票相比，卖出现金担保看跌期权能获得权利金收入并降低盈亏平衡点。
- 同店销售增长已放缓至历史水平。
- 如果股价大幅跌破 27.60 美元的有效成本线，投资者仍将面临账面亏损。
我一直关注着奇波雷墨西哥餐厅 ($CMG)，与其直接买入股票，我更考虑卖出现金担保看跌期权。
- $CMG 当前股价约为 32 美元
- 2027 年 6 月行权价为 32.50 美元的看跌期权当前报价约 4.90 美元
- 如果我卖出该期权，今天每份合约可获得 490 美元的权利金
- 若被指派，我的实际买入成本将约为 27.60 美元（32.50 美元行权价减去 4.90 美元权利金）
- 品牌实力强劲，具备定价能力
- 餐厅扩张空间广阔（如 Chipotlanes 概念店）
- 收入、盈利和同店销售额持续增长（目前同店销售已回落至历史水平）
- 前瞻市盈率约 26 倍，对于一家预计能以两位数速度复合增长盈利的企业来说，并不算高估
过去一年中，该股价多次在 30 美元附近获得支撑，尽管如此，我更看重基本面而非技术图表。
通过卖出看跌期权：
- 最理想情况：$CMG 股价维持在 32.50 美元以上，我可保留全部权利金
- 最坏情况：我被指派获得一家本就想要持有的公司，实际成本接近 27 美元
如果 $CMG 跌破 27 美元，我仍将面临未实现亏损，与其他股东无异。
主要区别在于，我的盈亏平衡点比今天直接买入股票更低。
对于经常卖出现金担保看跌期权的人来说，你更倾向于：
- 卖出期限更长且价内（ITM）的看跌期权，锁定更低的实际入场价格，还是
- 反复卖出期限较短且价外（OTM）的看跌期权，更频繁地收取权利金？
That’s a really long time to lock up capital. You’re better off looking around the 45 DTE range since that’s when theta starts to decay more rapidly.
The trade logic is fine but the tenor is doing most of the damage to your return. That June 2027 put is roughly 18 months out, and the bulk of theta on a put that far out does not start working for you until the last 90 days or so. You are collecting $490 to sit short a year and a half of mostly extrinsic value that barely moves in the first year.
Run the annualized math. $490 on $3,250 of collateral is about 15 percent if it expires worthless, but spread over 18 months that is closer to 10 percent annualized. A 30 to 45 DTE put at a similar delta, rolled, pulls far more premium per unit of capital per year and lets you reset the strike as price or thesis moves. You are also locking in todays IV for 18 months, so if vol pops later you cannot take advantage of it.
If the real goal is just owning CMG cheaper, the long dated put does get you there. Just know you are paying for that one fixed entry with a lot of capital efficiency and flexibility.
Seems like OP put a lot of thought into his wall of text.
I would like to be able to reach the same conclusion for your wall of text. However I’m given pause due to your saying “June 2027” is 18 months out.
What causes you to believe this? Are you unable to count, unable to read a calendar, unable to spellcheck, some combination, something else entirely?
More importantly: why should I spend my valuable time on this planet reading a due diligence comment from someone who cannot even be trusted to speak factually about the date?
Looking forward to your response and (possibly) reading the rest of your wall of text
It's a bot post, AI is notoriously bad with numbers.
My thought exactly what a maroon
lol
Your premium will be taxed as short term no matter your DTE. What will make it long term is if you get assigned and hold the stock for a year.
I'm from Belgium so it only gets taxed when the option gets assigned to me. Otherwise the premium is tax free. The new regulations here are still in its early days
¿No es mejor hacer una put write? Puedes comprar las acciones e ir haciendo ventas de covered call muy OTM de manera recurrente e ir bajando así el precio medio de compra
The two structures answer different questions. The long-dated put is a commitment to own CMG at $27.60 with a year of carrying cost wrapped in. The short-dated OTM repeated path is an active income strategy. Pick based on actual thesis. If your thesis is "I want CMG long-term" (which is what your fundamentals point to), the long-dated put does what you want. Effective entry $27.60, premium yield roughly 15% annualized on the committed capital ($490 on $3250 over a year). If your thesis is "harvest premium and accept CMG as collateral," shorter-dated OTM wins on yield. A 30 DTE ATM-ish put might collect \~$1.00-1.20, which annualizes to roughly 40% on the same committed capital. The cost is active management and assignment risk you have to actually want. One nuance: theta is non-linear. Daily decay is steepest in the last 21-30 DTE. Selling long-dated options gives up most of that curve. You collect more total dollars but a smaller fraction of the available theta per day. That's why "sell 30-45 DTE and roll at 21" is the canonical TastyTrade style approach. Your post reads like the first thesis (you want to own the business). The long-dated put is consistent with that. Just call it what it is, a deferred purchase trade with premium attached, not a wheel.
Shorter-dated. Why not buy 100 shares and sell covered calls?
CMG will be taking off soon
the long-dated put answers a different question than the rolling strategy does. if you actually want to own cmg at $27.60 and youre fine waiting a year to find out, the single put is cleaner - one decision, no monthly re-underwriting. rolling 30-45 DTE is better premium per dollar but it also means youre re-deciding every month whether you still want the assignment risk, and thats where discipline leaks.
Short dated OTM. I do like selling long DTE calls on certain things though.
It will go to 40 in couple of hours if not minutes