r/valueinvesting
$SPRY 投资机会
作者认为SPRY因药房上架延迟导致的27%跌幅是过度反应，强调其强劲销售增长、高利润率及2倍销售额目标。
- 预计收入将从9000万美元强劲增长至2029年的6亿美元，且毛利率超过75%。
- 按2倍前瞻销售额计算的估值极具吸引力，较当前6.5亿美元企业价值有巨大上涨空间。
- 资产负债表健康，现金充足，预计2028年底实现盈利，且有专业内部人士支持。
- 短期内缺乏新药房分销公告令投资者失望，并引发了27%的抛售。
我在$8到$9区间持有$SPRY。这家公司生产Neffy，这是一种鼻喷式肾上腺素注射器（e-pen）的版本。今天股价下跌了27%，并非因为业务失败，而是由于短期预期未达所致。我认为市场的负面反应严重过度了。我相信这只股票在未来三年内有望翻倍。
目前的企业估值为6.5亿美元。我认为该业务应按未来一年销售额的2倍来估值，这意味着到2029年股价可能翻倍。2倍销售额是小型生物技术/制药公司的基准估值标准。我认为这一目标相当合理，若公司能更快地扩大销售，还有上行空间。
该产品于2024年进入市场，当年销售额接近9000万美元。预计今年销售额将达到1.4亿美元，到2029年将接近6亿美元。这意味着未来四年的收入复合增长率超过300%。2倍于6亿美元销售额即为12亿美元估值，远高于当前6.5亿美元的企业价值。
该业务毛利率远超75%。资产负债表干净，现金流充足，预计到2028年底可实现净利润转正。
今日股价下跌的原因是投资者原本期待更多药店宣布将上架该产品。通常情况下，药店每年从7月1日起新增产品。但公司今天宣布，预计不会有任何新药店上架该产品。实际上，该产品已在多家主要平台以处方药和非处方药形式广泛可得。
最后，$SPRY前四大股东均为生物科技领域的专业投资者。我相信他们早在公司私有化阶段就已支持该公司。这些投资者活跃于董事会，拥有丰富的经验，擅长指导企业如何最优管理产品增长与市场渗透。
结论：优质产品，良好的财务指标，由资深内部人士主导的强劲治理结构，未来三年内股价翻倍甚至更多具备潜力。
I was looking at various stats on stocks, mainly around potential short squeeze candidates. This one ended up at the top my list.
Shorts are 54% of float. Near 52 week low. Volume is 42% higher than average. 17 days to cover.
I was surprised when I saw OrbiMed invested in this, to your last point.
With ARS, they’ve come out with Neffy, had first mover advantage against Aquestive’s ANAPHYLM, and they haven’t really done a great job with it. The epinephrine (adrenaline) market has historically been dominated by EpiPen, almost wholly, with a few generic IM autoinjectors too, so right of the bat it’s a tough market to break into because of the EpiPen brand value. Obviously nasal administration of adrenaline is far more appealing that an IM injection, so you can argue that maybe counters the branded moat.
But it also helps to consider the story of how EpiPen became a household name. I’ve never met someone who doesn’t know what I mean by saying ‘EpiPen’. I live in the UK and branded medicines are very rarely prescribed or seen by patients here, so I cannot tell you how incredible it is that everyone knows the brand name of EpiPen. That success can be attributed to Sherry Korczynski, who led the commercial effort at Mylan. She’s now working at Aquestive, which is a setback to ARS because she is categorically the best in the business.
Since approval, Neffy has been pretty lacklustre. I think this can attributed to potentially three things:
- That the EpiPen brand remains strong, and that prescribers aren’t interested in new administration methods. I personally don’t subscribe to this fully, but I think it’s worth considering.
- Neffy’s PK data are far inferior to IM administration. In a time-dependent situation like anaphylaxis, you can’t be waiting for Cmax to hit, and you don’t want to be in a situation where the dose administered is not enough.
- Prescribers are waiting on the verdict for ANAPHYLM. I think an oral administration is more palatable (excuse the pun) for patients, and it appears that it delivers superior PK results. The counter to this is the CRL that was received by Aquestive regarding human factors. I was confused by this when it came out but I think it’s a relatively straightforward fix. Additionally, ARS filed a citizen’s petition regarding a potential CV risk from ANAPHYLM metabolites. I don’t really take that seriously now because the deadline for an FDA response to that has passed and, as far as I can tell, there hasn’t been any response.
Overall I think ARS needs to show results, and very quickly because they seem a bit dead in the water. I believe that Aquestive provide the superior product to Neffy, if the adrenaline market moves away from IM injectors. And I believe ARS has a largely second-rate management team, even with additional input from OrbiMed/RA etc.
Apologies if this is a bit rambly, I could talk for hours about this market haha.
(Additional note: I didn’t mention the recent CVS issue. CVS have decided not to add Neffy to their formulary list, that will obviously stunt growth in the short to medium-term, and I think it really highlights an inertia in the payer base to move away for IM autoinjectors)