r/stocks
微软当前估值低于2025年4月关税暴跌时，而TTM EPS却增长30%，堪称巨大便宜货
作者认为微软是巨大的便宜货，得益于强劲的Azure、OpenAI协同效应和平衡的资本支出，预计其股价在1-2年内可能翻倍。
- 尽管TTM EPS增长30%，微软当前估值相比近期暴跌时极具吸引力。
- 基本面驱动力强劲，包括Azure云增长、企业软件韧性以及Copilot采用率的提升。
- OpenAI合作带来战略优势，且资本支出平衡，在保持增长的同时避免了过度负债。
我之前在460美元时卖掉了微软，但我认为它们现在可能是大型科技股中最大的便宜货之一：
- 对OpenAI有非常有利的敞口（20%的收入分成协议以及对其模型的使用权）。即使OpenAI持续烧钱，微软也能从其营收增长中获益。当收入分成协议到期后，OpenAI很可能会实现盈利，届时微软持有的约25% OpenAI股份将变得非常值钱。
- Azure云业务增长强劲。
- 企业软件业务依然坚挺。
- 尽管Copilot初期表现不佳，但最近几个月已有了显著改善。据我所知，各行各业都有很多人开始使用它，并对效果感到满意。
- 微软正开始推出定制AI芯片，以与英伟达竞争。
- 我认为资本支出（Capex）安排得相当平衡。不像谷歌或Meta那样过于激进，但仍保持足够力度以维持增长，同时避免过度风险。他们留存的自由现金流足以覆盖股息和少量股票回购，无需依赖债务。
- 从固定费用计费转向基于使用量的计费模式，可能为其AI产品带来可观的收入增长。
以目前的低价来看，我完全相信MSFT在未来1到2年内市值翻倍是完全可能的。
I’ve never watched a margin call in real time before
I never understood the capex worries in terms of valuation. They can stop the cap-ex anytime they want and go back to printing money. They are spending because they believe it will print them even more money. They are tech leaders with all the knowledge and info in the world, if anyone knows what capex is worth it and what isn't, it's them.
He gone man 🤣
I pulled my entire QQQ position last night and put it into MSFT, today MSFT was up 5% and QQQ was down 1% so I just rotated back with a free 6% QQQ gain. If it hits 355 ill do it again
And sp500 is up 71% in last 5 years. MSFT had a good run until 2021, but then it's growth slowed down dramatically.
That's copium, that was over search, this one is about over spending
I never said it was?
Intel is the world's only real competition to TSMC, thats why it skyrocketed
OpenAI is in rapid decline though. I stopped reading there.
What stock in particular will 3-5x ?
Micron trades at a PE of 10
That's forward PE.
Seems like a good deal, or this could be the start of a major overall correction. Either way I’d rather buy now than at 550
Macrohard you mean. Was trading a $520 just.
I’m so ridiculously overweighted on it rn