r/stocks
Micron 的指引对整体市场真的看涨吗？我不太确定
Micron 内存涨价可能损害 Mag7 的利润率和销量，令整体市场的持续性存疑。
- Micron 等供应商不断上涨的内存成本正在侵蚀 Mag7 核心业务的利润率。
- 苹果和微软等 Mag7 公司被迫提高消费产品价格，这将损害销量。
- 由于 AI 投入成本上升导致 Mag7 持续下跌，考虑到其巨大权重，可能会拖累整体大盘。
和所有人一样，我最初认为美光（Micron）的业绩超预期且指引强劲，令人惊叹。我的第一反应是这份报告对整个科技行业都极为利好。
但仔细思考后，我开始产生疑虑。最近，Mag7 股票表现疲软，很可能是因为市场担心它们在人工智能上的投入程度。而美光的财报显示，他们已大幅提高内存价格，并将继续涨价。这只会进一步加剧市场对 Mag7 过度支出的担忧。
而且就在今天，苹果和微软均宣布因内存成本上升而大幅上调消费类产品的价格，这无疑会打击销量。如今，内存成本已经开始侵蚀 Mag7 核心业务的利润。这显然不是看涨信号。
目前市场仍维持在或接近历史高点，尽管 Mag7 正在挣扎。但如果 Mag7 因人工智能投入成本上升而持续走弱，考虑到这些公司规模巨大，我实在不确定市场还能否继续支撑下去。
Disclaimer - I used to work for Micron
Micron is selling shovels in a gold rush, and doing it on binding long term contracts to secure more predictable longer term profits, which are badly needed to manage the risk of the massive expenditures going to expanding production capacity.
Micron is in a strong position relative to its competitors. The big risk here the viability of those contracts.
The money to pay for that HBM does not exist yet. There is this circle of investment and reinvestment among the AI giants that makes their money seem infinite, but they actually spend it extremely rapidly, and constantly need new investment to stay afloat. If OpenAI fails to justify the titanic outflows of cash with meaningful revenues and a clear path to profit, it will fall. News on this front is concerning in my opinion.
There is also a huge ecosystem of BS AI companies that are just bad ideas, being uncritically funded by clueless rich people. Those will fail. When they fail, their demand for AI processing disappears, which will hit outlooks for AI as reality sets in regarding what the actual practical use cases are. Companies are already finding that AI is often more expensive than human labor.
Bankrupt AI companies don't honor purchasing contracts. Hopefully Micron has set aside a very large cash buffer, or else it could become terribly overextended on new fab investments, if contracts that are currently being treated as money turn out to go up in smoke.
Finally, some sober analysis.
To me, it is the ecosystem of also-ran bullshit that will topple the thing. Venture funding is going to "companies" which are wrappers around frontier models that have not proven a goddamn thing about their business other than growing something from $1.00 to $100,000 in revenue is pretty easy. The cracks will appear at both the bottom and the top, the top by relaxation in capex and the bottom by simple bankruptcy.
That is why I hope it all goes up in flames.
14 years is a pretty long commitment for something that’s supposedly going to burst soon
What? Microsoft, Apple, Google, Samsung, HTC, Sony all invested in and explored that space. Hololens? Google Glass? Vision Pro? Galaxy XR? The Vive? PSVR?
I’m having a real hard time even reading whatever that blurb of text is
I bought yesterday's nonsensical dip and fucking ripped 18% today.
I saw an business article from before closing yesterday from some chud getting off on saying that micron's time is over and their stock has been corrected, LMAO
But if you say "we're laying off due to AI" you can avoid saying "we're laying off because we made bad business decisions three years ago". One of these sounds much better.
Organizations will absolutely resort to cloud for deploying internal usage models, since buying onprem servers for local inference is just too costly and requires maintenance. And this is a huge untapped market for hyperscalers - even if openai/anthropic go bankrupt, the demand for AI won't go away, the technology is with us to stay. Most orgs already have their infrastructure in the cloud, including governments, so it won't be a new concept to them. This is where the data center build out will come handy, which is why I'm bullish on hyperscalers long term.
Sysadmin here, this is pretty bang on. Some orgs will try to manage their own hardware, but most won't unless costs gets truly ridiculous. The tech is absolutely not going anywhere
No, He is still counting on wearables
I'm gonna give that a solid maybe.
I certainly don't see Micron becoming small or irrelevant, but the current valuation may be a lot to justify in 10 years when all the competitors have built out their production capacity and we are once again trading chips as commodities
Did they all lose 80b on it and brand the whole company based on it? I dont see that being the same at all.
With AI developing as fast as it is now, it now makes much more sense than it did back when Meta started this.
They announced it in their report. In most of their contracts, prices are agreed to be capped at Q2 2026 prices and floor can be about 20% lower.
You aren't sure about their 80% profit margin, 300% yoy growth, and a forward pe of 10?
Short the stock then