r/stockmarket
Micron 的财报对整体市场真的利好吗？我不太确定
Micron 强劲的财报和不断上涨的内存价格可能会损害 Mag7 的利润率和消费者需求，令整体市场的可持续性存疑。
- Micron 财报超预期且指引强劲，显示出强劲的内存需求。
- 不断上涨的内存成本增加了 Mag7 公司的 AI 资本开支。
- 更高的硬件成本迫使 Mag7 提高消费产品价格，这将损害销量。
- 考虑到 Mag7 的巨大权重，其核心业务的利润率压缩可能会拖累更广泛的市场。
和所有人一样，我最初认为美光（Micron）的业绩超预期，且其指引也极为出色。我的第一反应是这份报告对整个科技行业都极为乐观。
但仔细思考后，我开始产生疑虑。最近，Mag7股票表现疲软，很可能是因为市场担心它们在人工智能上的开支规模。而美光的财报显示，他们已大幅提高内存价格，并将继续涨价。这只会进一步加剧市场对Mag7过度支出的担忧。
而且就在今天，苹果和微软均宣布因内存成本上升而大幅上调消费类产品的价格，这无疑会打击销售量。如今，内存成本已经开始侵蚀Mag7核心业务的利润。再次说明，这并不乐观。
目前市场仍维持在或接近历史高点，尽管Mag7面临困境。但如果Mag7因人工智能投入成本上升而持续走弱，考虑到这些公司体量巨大，我实在不确定市场还能否继续支撑下去。
Bullish for Micron, bearish for hyperscalers, hardware companies, any company who buys anything with memory chips in it (so literally everyone). It will be ironic if Micron pricing is the thing that brings down the trade - at some point hyperscalers are going to say "actually you know what, when I set aside $200 billion for data centers I didn't mean for $100 billion of it to be memory chips."
Apple raised the prices on its consumer goods substantially today. Memory pricing is now effecting the consumer directly. I don’t think that is sustainable either.
Well yeah, that's kind of my point. Micron may actually price themself out of customers soon. Demand destruction is a thing, whether its hyperscalers or people buying phones - people will overpay for a hot item but not infinitely.
Reddit discovers price elasticity
msft raising xbox prices too
The is a reason that MU is up but Apple, Microsoft, Nintendo, Google, etc is down today.
The company selling the shovels is making bank while the ones digging are confused why the shovels cost more than the gold they are finding.
You'd think there would be at least one brain in the multi-trillion dollar corporations that would realize a shovel made out of gold doesn't dig very well.
"The future of artificial intelligence will be shaped as much by memory as by computing power." -Jensen Huang
Only a matter of time before Chinese memory makers swoop in with far cheaper prices and plenty of volume to clear the backlog. Not all buyers will go for Chinese memory instead of the Korean/American brands seen as more "premium" or national-security compliant, but enough manufacturers will due to the compelling cost savings that it will very quickly clear the backlog of memory orders, rectify the supply:demand discordance, and tank MU and SK Hynix valuations like a rock. Not a matter of if this happens, but when it happens. Whenever supply and demand disconnect to this extreme someone will eventually step in to capitalize and rectify the discordance. China is the obvious beneficiary here.
This environment will certainly be a boom to Chinese memory. That said, they aren't going to glut the market and undercut the big 3.
We're not talking some cheap commodity like ballpoint pens. Chinese DRAM companies lag by a few nodes, and that makes their profit margins much lower and their chip performance weaker. It will take years to catch up, and that assumes they can secure EUV tooling which they currently have no access to.
The admin would never allow that. MU is one of Trump’s largest positions in his disclosed portfolio.
I think today's sell off was mostly due to inflation report. Market freaks out, then goes back up. Also, before Micron, due to fears about the results being a problem, we saw a sell off Tuesday and Wednesday in tech. Tech opened green but fell back again due to inflation report, I believe, and profit taking from the morning. I think tomorrow will be bullish.
What about the insane inflation in memory? That’s not sustainable.
Hyperscalers are, compared to their own start of year projections, spending more money to purchase less stuff. Soon consumers will spend more money to purchase less stuff.
"Memory is in need" is only bullish for memory producers. For everyone else this should be a negative update
Try not to buy it at the highest