r/valueinvesting
在资本支出放缓之前，Mag7股票将继续横盘并下跌
由于庞大且加速的AI资本支出对现金流造成压力并带来股东稀释风险，Mag7股票将继续横盘或下跌。
- 这些公司拥有强劲的基本面，不会倒闭。
- 庞大且加速的AI资本支出将对现金流和股价造成压力。
- 高额资本支出可能迫使公司像谷歌已经做的那样稀释股东来筹集资金。
- 当前股价并未见底，随着资本支出增加，预计会出现更低的价格水平。
我认为这些公司不会消失，但最近的回调值得警惕。我个人认为这还不是底部，随着资本支出预计大幅增加，我预计在接下来的财报发布期间，股价还会进一步走低。谷歌已经不得不通过稀释股东来筹集额外资金，你可以说他们在资金用途上是最干净的……
谁能保证META、微软和亚马逊不会紧随其后呢？
2026年大型科技公司AI资本支出
亚马逊以约2000亿美元领跑，微软紧随其后，达1900亿美元（其中约250亿美元归因于更高的内存/组件成本）。谷歌（Alphabet）位列1800亿至1900亿美元之间，这是在第一季度财报后上调了50亿美元指引的结果。Meta则以1150亿至1350亿美元收尾，绝对金额最小，但同比增幅最为惊人——从2025年的690亿美元飙升约81%。
这四家超大规模云服务商在2026年的总资本支出预计将达到约7250亿美元，较去年创纪录的4100亿美元增长77%。高盛预测，这一数字将在2027年突破1万亿美元。
If AI companies fail then all semis, chips, memory, power and network will disappear immediately.
Fail ? They'll cut capex and return to massive profits. Nvda and semis will be annihilated.
Big if, the whole world today depends on those companies. And they show no sign of slowing down. Yes, they are spending on the AI race. But it's not like they are acquiring debt to pay the capex.
I think people are scared now and that's a good time to buy.
They are raising debt through bonds actually
Once the capex starts showing excellent returns, they will grow enormously in my opinion.
If*
Right now they all look like FOMO investors, buying hardware for high prices and no returns.... Except for unrealized gains on AI company stock they cannot sell...
It’s ok. Micron and Sandisk will soon start buying stakes in the mag7 with their massive cash flow so the mag7 can use that same money to buy more memory and SSDs.
The AI circle jerk continues and has become its own ecosystem.
MU earnings prove just that investments in AI infrastructure are enormous, it doesn't say anything about ROI and profitability.
Thank goodness we have a redditor who understands the business of Microsoft, Google, Amazon more than their leadership.
Apple has put there prices up dramatically, they've been hurt significantly by this AI race like all consumer electronics companies
Um, no. Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft are still much more than AI. The “shovel” companies are much riskier
That would be true if they were sideways and not 2% down every day
Well meta isnt primarily selling based on tokens, its using ai to help its ad business and succeeding.
All the hyperscalers see the writing on the wall. They need to spend and build. Either dilute shares or take on debt. This is particularly bad this month with inflation ticking up, new fed chair that is perceived as hawkish and markets believing rate hikes are likely.
Oil prices going down will change this.