r/options
Pelosi 的 UBER LEAP 交易是个明智之举吗？
作者在效仿 Pelosi 买入 UBER 深度实值 LEAPS 时，权衡了坚实的业务催化剂与高昂权利金、披露延迟及宽价差。
- 坚实的业务催化剂，包括与 Waymo 的自动驾驶合作、盈利性回购以及应用扩展。
- 深度实值 LEAPS 提供高 Delta，能以远低于购买正股的成本获得合成股票的风险敞口。
- 披露延迟意味着该交易是在几周前股价下跌时执行的，现在买入可能是在追高。
- 深度实值 LEAPS 需要高昂的前期权利金，且面临极宽的买卖价差。
大家好，
我注意到最近披露的信息显示，南希·佩洛西（实际上是她的丈夫保罗）刚刚买入了200份到期日为2027年3月的UBER $50看涨期权。目前Uber股价在70美元到74美元之间，这意味着他们买的是深度实值（ITM）的长期期权（LEAP）。我知道他们的投资组合过去对NVIDIA和Apple这类股票有惊人战绩，所以很容易就忍不住想直接照搬这个操作。
我正考虑在Robinhood上也做同样的事，但想先听听大家的意见。从机制上看，我理解他们这么做的原因：
合成股票： 买入$50行权价的期权，一开始就拥有大量内在价值。
高Delta值： 能几乎1:1地跟随正股走势，但成本仅为买入2万股股票的一小部分。
充足时间： 到2027年3月还有将近两年的时间来发展。
公司的基本面催化剂看起来也很扎实（与Waymo在自动驾驶领域的合作、盈利回购、应用拓展至零售和旅游领域）。
但我也有些犹豫：
- 溢价过高： 因为是深度实值，单份合约就要占用大约2500美元以上的资金。
- 滞后性： 这类披露通常在交易执行后数周才公布。他们是在5月29日股价下跌时买入的。如果我现在以73美元以上的价格进场，是不是在追高？
- 流动性差： 深度实值的长期期权买卖价差往往非常宽。
有没有人也在关注这笔交易，或者已经入场了？现在直接买股票是否更安全？还是说深度实值的长期期权才是正确选择？
非常感谢大家的建议，尤其是关于如何应对可能存在的宽价差问题。
ignore the people dunking on you, you asked a fair question. a deep itm call like the 50 strike on a 72 stock is basically synthetic stock. delta is near 0.9 so it moves almost dollar for dollar with uber, and you paid mostly intrinsic value with very little extrinsic so theres barely any theta bleed. its leverage with a defined max loss which is the premium. thats why its not a lotto ticket, its a leveraged long. the part that doesnt copy over is sizing. paul pelosi throwing on 200 contracts is lunch money for them, the same position could be your whole account. the trade can be sound and still blow you up if you size it like youre them. figure out what one contract does to your account first
I saw this! It’s a weird trade in the sense that it’s not an AI or semi play in the way everything is nowadays.
I’ve added it to my watch list
It seems uber is underpriced due to some accounting error, they’re partnering with Kiehls, Blick, and others to deliver for them on the Uber Eats app. I can see it taking off, or at least getting back to $100
You read that response and thought “this is a person I’d take financial advice from!” ?
Just thinking critically here with some criticism.
My advice is learn what you’re putting your own money into. Stop asking people “is this a good BET?”. Do your research, build a thesis and invest in a way that makes sense to you. Learn the investment instruments you are attempting to use.
Cheaper isn’t always better. Sometimes getting a single ITM contract is better than three OTM.
Ask yourself:
What’s the time frame I’m trading?
Have I identified the catalysts in said timeframe?
Does my strategy match?
Am I leveraged appropriately?
LEAPs are a great tool to scale into a company. Anyone telling you they are just lotto tickets is an idiot.
You need to learn the Greeks of options if you’re going to trade options. Particularly now Delta, Gamma and Theta. You need to understand intrinsic and extrinsic value.
The same Greeks that build a position quickly through a leverage mechanism also unravel that position just as fast. So this statement that “you don’t lose much” with OTM is idiotic and a clear indication this person doesn’t know derivatives at all.
Deep ITM options are insulated more from declining price action than OTM due to their intrinsic value.
The good news if you want to copy her trade is that you can buy the contracts cheaper than she paid, even at the ask. She paid 26.30-26.35 on her fill price during May 29th market hours. The mid price right now is at 25.70 (b25.45/a25.95) for the same option. While she’s negative on her position by almost 2.5%, the 2x leverage ETF UBRL is up 2.66% from the same date of her option purchase. UBER is also up 2.63% since the same date.
Remember you can spread it by selling calls to reduce the impact of some of those Greeks, and lower net cost.
I could get behind that INTC LEAPS Call. I've been doing Put Credit Spreads (which are just CSPs with a backstop) on INTC successfully for the past couple of weeks. Intel just seems to keep going higher, so I can see it being higher in a year.
Buy at 80-delta at least, per my other reply where I mentioned you.
So your thesis is built. Now size and leverage your position accordingly.
If this is an initial investment into a company you’re long on, I’d recommend a split of shares and a leveraged position. Risk what is comfortable to you. Maybe a 75% shares and 25% derivatives since you’re new. 50/50, 25/75. Your money your decision to live with.
It’s ok to take OTM positions, but I’d anchor with some shares.
Or you could take the entire initial position and buy deep ITM. Buys you some insulation with intrinsic value for downside.
The whole point of options is gaining access to command more shares quicker than you would buying only shares.
It’s capital efficiency when used correctly.
No combination is wrong as long as you have a clear strategy and understand the risk profile of the position.
Don’t be an idiot and over leverage on margin.
That’s my Ted talk. Happy trading.
I assumed OTM long options where the move, because they are cheaper and if the stock goes against you, you don't lose much, while if it goes in your direction, the delta increases (so in %, the return increases more rapidly).
But when I buy LEAPS, is just fun money that I can lose, hoping in big returns, so maybe it's a diffferent strategy if you have more capital to invest
Are they opening or closing a position?
Opening like a French whore
What year do you think we are in now?
solid perspective. a lot of people overthink this but you laid it out simply.