r/stocks
Q2财报前有大资金押注超大规模云服务商吗？
质疑对超大规模云服务商的看空共识；Q2财报中稳定的资本开支和清晰的AI回报可能引发逆向反弹。
- 对AI资本开支的看空叙事可能已沦为群体思维，提供了逆向买入的机会。
- Q2财报中若资本开支指引保持稳定，可能逆转当前交易趋势，推动超大规模云服务商上涨。
- 财务上展现出清晰的AI投资回报率将有助于证明其巨额支出的合理性。
- AI资本开支在烧钱且缺乏清晰回报，内存和电力成本上升可能损害云业务利润率。
- 内存价格高企可能导致消费设备通胀，从而引发政治和监管审查。
感觉当前的叙事其实相当简单
AI资本开支不好。内存/HBM/电力/数据中心都太贵了。AI资本开支没有清晰的回报。超大规模云服务商只是在烧钱。既然如此，为什么不选择利润率高的“挖 shovel”公司下注呢？我理解看空的观点，这并不愚蠢。
如果内存价格继续飙升，每一轮AI建设都会变得更贵。云服务利润空间可能被压缩。设备成本也会提高。最终普通人会不满，因为他们的Xbox和iPad现在更贵了。
但我开始怀疑，这是否已经变成群体思维了？又有什么能扭转对超大规模云服务商的叙事呢？
财报就在眼前。我们很快就能看到二季度数据和未来指引。如果资本开支指引保持稳定，不再增加，哪怕只是这一微小变化，就足以逆转当前走势——届时我们会看到超大规模云服务商股价上涨，而内存、芯片和存储类股票则下跌。财务数据中若能清晰体现出回报，也会起到推动作用。
另一个内存多头忽略的盲点：如果内存/HBM价格变得荒唐，美国司法部（DOJ）或联邦贸易委员会（FTC）可能会开始关注。并非高价本身违法，而是因为DRAM过去曾有过价格操纵的历史。一旦苹果、微软、戴尔等公司开始把消费电子产品涨价归咎于内存成本，消费者愤怒起来，政客们就可能提出质疑。
目前，押注超大规模云服务商正是最明显的逆势操作。当然，逆势并不总意味着更高收益。现在有人买入MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/META/ORCL吗？究竟什么才能改变人们对超大规模云服务商的看法？
The problem is, if hyper scalers don’t win (some serious scaling ROI) - capex suppliers sure as shit won’t be seeing repeat business. (Maintaining growth trajectory valuations)
Bizarre that two conflicting narratives are existing at the same time.
Or maybe only one narrative remains and there is a lead / lag effect …
This is the reflexive nature that people who are still extremely bullish on memory and compute fail to understand ( or maybe they understand well but intentionally trying to pump)
Yes they have performed spectacularly as hyperscaler started hoarding the next hardware component ( accelerators to compute/storage) . But at current level of spend, at least 500 billion of the revenue in 2026 from Samsung,hynix/micron are going to be from hyperscalers… if the hyperscaler capex is estimated to be 700-750 billion that doesn’t leave much to anything else
And to grow that rev willl depend on fast capex expansion… I’m pretty confident
1) you are going to see much slower growth, if any ( I mean from 2022 to 2026 it’s basically up 700+ %) with cash constraints and if stock tank more
2) power and cooling bottlenecks is next, as they clearly haven’t actually start to fit out much but just hoard/corner
So capex will rotate elsewhere because they need to
There is a reaaon why Micron is trying desperately to lock down long term multi year commitments at current high prices ( if it’s all rosy and they believe demand is no longer cyclical they wouldn’t care as much )
Is micron desperately trying to lock the contracts or hyperscalers are? That’s the question.
If micron makes up a large part of my portfolio, I will say the hyperscalers are desperate.
If hyperscalers are a large part of my portfolio, I will say micron is definitely the desperate one.
Ive been buying a bit of each of MSFT, META, AMZN, and GOOG.
Yea. Just noticed OP snuck ORCL in that list.
a rare good take on reddit
Semis and software are in this strange tug of war. My portfolio has gone nowhere the past month. All my semi gains get cancelled by software losses.
META / MSFT are trading at forward P/E of 17-20 compared to Waste Management's 26.
They're cheap on a trailing 12 month basis too.
MSFT seems most undervalued right now
An iPhone is going to cost more, even if the government regulates price on memory, your iPhone is still going to cost more and people will still buy it. Considering Trump has Micron shares, he's not going to do anything.
How much more can get they knifed before they pull back capex? I have to think that the first one to cut capex (Microsoft?) will be rewarded by market
Or they are punished because they will lose the ai race and already spent all this money
Meta AMD ball and chain is a fun narrative. I personally think meta will do whatever it takes to get AMD to 600 for warrants to mature at an insane clip.
More concerned with PCE pre market and seeing if you get leg up then another drawdown.
This is how delulu I am- I think trump attempts to pump into official 250th to distract, I just don’t know if the market gives a fuck this time considering…it doesn’t have to?