r/valueinvesting
论 MU 为何是一项价值投资
MU 是一只被低估的 AI 概念股，其 HBM 需求已锁定至 2028 年，且前瞻市盈率远低于同行。
- HBM 需求已锁定至 2028 年，长期合同使商业模式具有高度可预测性。
- AI 模型遭遇'内存墙'产生刚性需求，使美光能够获取溢价。
- 27 倍的前瞻市盈率与其增长率严重脱节，相比估值泡沫化的 AI 同行，它是真正的便宜货。
对内存的需求不仅仅是一次性的短暂激增；它在未来几年内都已锁定。我们谈论的是HBM芯片，这些芯片的2026年订单已经全部售罄，而主要合同甚至已经延伸到了2028年。目前市面上每一个AI模型都在遭遇‘内存瓶颈’，这意味着企业不惜一切代价也要抢到足够的供应。当需求如此旺盛，且由于长期协议让商业模式终于变得可预测时，很难理解为什么估值仍然这么低。
我想特别强调一下，市盈率只有27。前瞻市盈率依然出奇地低，这与公司实际增长速度形成了巨大反差。大多数其他AI概念股都在以高得离谱的估值交易，但如果你看Micron未来一两年的真实盈利预期，它看起来简直是个真正的便宜货。你们怎么看？
Are hyperscalers obligated to spend a set amount of billions per quarter/year? It would seem MU would get a huge correction at the first sign of capex reduction.
There will be a capex reduction if the hyperscalers stock prices keep getting trashed in favour of memory.
They’re not obligated but pulling back on Capex would be quite a retreat, and it’s not clear what alternative they would be pursuing. Regardless of what skeptics say today, AI has too much proven potential to not be considered a potential competitive edge where none of these companies can afford to lose ground to another by sitting out: that’s why why they all dove in together.
I would say it’s all about narrative, big tech can easily claim that their advance AI models only use a fraction of the memory and their stock will shoot up.
You’re right, but you’re going see people here do Olympic level mental gymnastics to say you’re wrong, and then they’ll turn around and buy Adobe and Intuit.
Riiiiight.
Because eventually...all person, places, and things will be RAM as far as the eye can see. Trend never stop.
Value is when something is worth less today than it will be in the future. If you don’t understand just how undervalued Micron is, you should do some research. It is worth half what it will be in a year.
Where did you do this research?
I'd agree it's not a temporary spike, and happen to own a fuckload of it. I'm a CFA charterholder, have been a professional analyst, currently work at an AI company working on the automation process, and I recently built out my financial model on MU.
All that said, you should really check out this book: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Just because a cycle gets stretched doesn't turn this from a cyclical stock to a staples business.
Memory has a long history of cyclical busts, but there are two main kinds:
- Supply-led price collapses: bit demand still grows, but new capacity/cost reductions outrun demand. ASPs and revenue fall anyway.
- True demand + inventory crashes: PCs, phones, servers, or cloud customers slow purchases, then aggressively liquidate inventory. This is much worse because volume, price, and utilization all fall together.
The worst modern example: Micron’s FY2022 to FY2023 revenue fell 49%, gross margin fell 54 percentage points from 45% to –9%, and net income swung from +$8.7B to –$5.8B.
If you really think this can't happen again.. you're off your rocker.
We happen to be in a beautiful period for the company though. The infrastructure buildout is being funded by some of the strongest balance sheets in the world (hyperscalers), capital is cheap and plentiful, which means that companies losing fuckloads of money (ahem openai) can also get their hands on money and bid the prices of input up further.
But uhh to state the obvious, one day, investors will ask hyperscalers et al.. why'd you spend all that money? what'd you get out of it? was it worth it?
Why is it not a temporary spike? Why is this not just a super cycle? It feels like an industry that will get the shit kicked out of it in a few years when the greatest demand surge in history starts to normalize
Micron’s earnings should scare the fuck out of people more than it has. These 4 companies have patents + decades of experience required on possibly the greatest bottleneck in human history. They can force however much capex they want from big tech from here. This is NOT good. 30% of all hyperscaler capex has been spent on memory. Earnings players are saying they will be able to improve margins and raise prices even more, Anthropic / OpenAI and big tech execs are definitely trying to price this in.
I’m still long AI, but yes this will squeeze big tech dry
Amkor/ASE sell assembly-and-test as a service, whereas Micron’s back end is a captive step in selling a much higher-value memory product. In other words, Micron keeps the highest value packaging business internal. That's called HBM cube assembly (stacking and testing DRAM dies into an HBM product).
AMKR and ASE then complete system level advanced packaging, eg, integrating an ASIC/GPU and several HBM stacks from Micron. This is essential, but a much lower margin business. Amkor’s full-company 2025 gross margin was 14.0% and operating margin 7.0%; ASE’s core ATM business is much larger and includes packaging and test, but it also does not disclose a clean “HBM packaging margin.”
China already makes cheap DDR4/5 but that's not what AI uses or what's driving their margins. They would need to get access to advanced ASML lithography to start an HBM factory.
Micron's forward PE is estimated 7-15. Trailing PE is 25. The financials and earnings you would show it is undervalued at its current price and HBM margins are almost guaranteed until 2028.