r/valueinvesting
$RACE：法拉利 Luce 将解锁全新客户群体
法拉利 Luce 将吸引科技新贵从而扩大潜在市场，目前估值低于历史平均水平且有强力回购支撑。
- Luce 预计将吸引约 50% 的全新客户，将潜在市场扩大至年轻的科技亿万富翁群体。
- Purosangue 的历史经验表明，初期的负面反响最终可能转化为巨大的成功和漫长的等待期。
- 当前约 35 倍的市盈率低于 5 年平均的 44 倍，估值具有吸引力，并有高个位数增长和直至 2030 年的回购支撑。
大家都觉得这车长得丑，没错。
但我认为市场还没完全反映出来，Luce 将把法拉利的可触达市场（TAM）拓展到一个全新的客户群体（法拉利预计约50%的 Luce 购买者将是全新客户）。那些年轻且富裕的科技亿万富翁和创业者，过去从未认同过那种冷峻的法拉利，现在却可能因为 Luce 而改变想法。
回看2022年，法拉利首款SUV Purosangue 出来时，所有人都说这是背叛。但结果它大获成功，如今已有两年等待名单。克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多和阿利松·贝克尔都拥有一辆 Purosangue。
这里的模式结构非常相似，我认为尽管公众有反弹，Luce 最终也会成为法拉利的一大成功之作。CEO 维尼亚还表示，Luce 的订单已排到2027年底。
$RACE 当前市盈率约为35倍，远低于其五年平均值约44倍。预计2026年和2027年将实现高个位数增长，且公司正积极回购股份，计划持续到2030年。
你怎么看？
我的完整分析：https://economiyaki.substack.com/p/ferrari-luce-a-new-tam
Hard pass. This ugly mess will be a flop
Look I think the thesis that moving into the 4 seater market and then the SUV market and now the EV market as a way to unlock new customers and increase TAM is reasonable - but you can’t just stop there - you need the product offerings when entering these markets to align with the overall brand vision. Purists are always going to be annoyed when the status quo shifts - who cares about the purists…this is about the general population and whether this is a prancing horse and whether or not the buyers when they step out tell the entire world they are stepping out of a prancing horse…and this car just doesn’t say that - even to the trained eye this can be mistaken for a mid market Korean EV…this is not what anyone in the 500k market is looking for.
$500k for something that people will laugh at you for? No.
Ferrari just had to make it look like a supercar even if the performance wasn't there and some techbro would've bought it
You don't pony up the money for a Ferrari with that monstrosity in mind
How many high net worth individuals do you know in real life who is excited about this car? I
Totally new customer segment. Blind people with big wallets. Better comes with Level 4 ADAS
This was the premise of a CNBC short like a month ago. I have no doubt 50% of buyers will be new. But 50% of nothing ain’t a big deal
So the people who are as dull and soulless as the Luce will be able to relate to it is what you're saying? What a great marketing strategy!
This car will make tons of money, but not because people actually want it. It’s an incredibly profitable way for Ferrari to force people to buy it to get special allocations
I would say your last sentence is really all that matters - I think the Luce absolutely damages the brand…how much is something that only time will tell and these things are measured in years and decades.
The idea that you can just broad brush the entire group of people saying ‘it’s ugly’ as ‘it wasn’t built for you anyway’ is naive. Businesses with brand moats and iconic brand images have built these symbols so that when you see them everyone, regardless of feeling towards them, knows exactly what you represent and what it means to be associated with them.
Ferrari is one of the strongest brands in the world and that brand has been built up for nearly a century on a foundation of race heritage and building the most visceral driving experiences for only the most privileged. The Luce objectively spurns the first two of these (and I suspect, but cannot confirm the third as well). This hurts the brand, it may be subtle it may be minimal, but it does. Sure they probably will sell every single one they make for MSRP or higher - this is because of the overall brand strength not because the Luce itself is successful or popular.
this car reminds me of microsoft zune.
I think it was designed for top executives, board members... and to be bought as company cars (with subsidies)
Ahh kk. Was asking because some value investors I admire like/own the stock like Guy Spier and Mohnish Pabrai
The multiple is trading at a premium I agree
Wait really? Why isnt ferrari a value stock