r/baba
我们终于能承认我们错了吗？
作者认为过去四年持有BABA是个错误，因为与标普500相比存在巨大的机会成本，即使扣除通胀也是如此。
- 该股票仍被认为具有真实价值，并保留了深度价值特征。
- 如果最终复苏，在当前低迷水平买入可避免多年的资金闲置陷阱。
- BABA股价回到2022年水平，4年间因通胀导致实际购买力亏损12%。
- 与同期标普500实现54%的实际回报相比，存在巨大的机会成本。
- 市场4年的表现证明，关于基本面和情绪的多头逻辑是错误的。
Don't get me wrong, I'm not just saying this because the stock is falling like a knife right now.
I owned it, held it for about 2 years, and sold earlier than I wanted with a great profit. Looking back, it was deep value an unloved stock that is genuinely still valuable. I honestly wanted to hold it forever, but I had to play it safe since my portfolio was way too concentrated in it.
But think about the brutal opportunity cost right now. BABA ran up and crashed right back to where it started. It was at this $92 level over 4 years ago in March 2022.
Because of inflation, holding it flat actually means you lost money. Today's $92 is actually only $81 of real buying power compared to back then, meaning you took a 12% loss in purchasing power. So, even if you "broke even" on paper, inflation ate your money alive.
You could have bought it today. Or, you could have parked that money in the S&P 500 instead. Since March 2022, the S&P 500 is up about 76% on paper. When you adjust that for the same inflation, it’s still a real, true return of about 54%. That is a massive missed opportunity compared to bleeding value in BABA.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but for us to have been right, the stock shouldn't have dropped back down to this level. The market has had 4 solid years to weigh everything; sentiment, the economic outlook, and the business fundamentals etc. and it did and it's voting that we are wrong. Do we need to stay at the low level for a few more years to finally admit that we are wrong?
They say the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Well, we need to redefine "short-term," because 4 years isn't short, man. Some people have been stuck holding this for much longer.
Even if it goes to 300 in 5 years time you could have bought today instead of 4 years ago or whatever.