r/baba
Reddit 上的极度恐慌 = 绝佳机会。正在建仓 BABA。
BABA 处于极度恐慌的底部，基本面强劲、估值低廉，且即将迎来财报和宏观催化剂，有望暴力反弹。
- 尽管基本面完好且在电商和云领域护城河强大，股价却计入了极度悲观的预期。
- 扣除现金后前瞻市盈率仅为个位数，相当于 AI 和云业务白送。
- 即将到来的财报和宏观顺风（关税言论缓和）将成为估值大幅重估的催化剂。
近几年看到的关于BABA最好的布局了。大多数人都没注意到这一点。
今晚就是底部，记住了。到了八月，没人还会记得他们当初为何恐慌抛售。股价反弹将会非常猛烈。
股价正在反映最大痛苦，仿佛公司已经崩盘。但实际上什么都没出问题，一点都没有。纯粹是情绪导致的。基本面依然稳健。
护城河依然存在：中国第一大电商平台，亚洲第一大云服务提供商。Qwen用户数即将突破十亿，正成为全球默认的开源AI。再加上苹果合作案，BABA成了中国iPhone里的AI。这是一波多年未见的利好，目前市场完全没定价。
当前市盈率（前向）仅个位数，且已剔除现金。你几乎相当于白送就拿到了AI和云业务。
宏观环境也在配合。特朗普显然正在为年底峰会铺垫对华叙事，而关税言论往往在达成协议前最响亮。BABA顺利渡过这一关，中国科技股指数将大幅上涨。BABA将创出新高，不是会不会，只是何时的问题。
下一次财报就是催化剂。云业务重新加速 + 毛利率扩张，估值将至少重估至150美元以上。
风险有限，上行空间巨大。
I hope you're right. I can't even bear to open my ibkr. I Know my portfolio got raped by a hundred big black studded dildos .. no lube.
no. lube.
Extra rib and friction
-95% EPS, open an quaterly report
Because he had a few drinks. That’s why.
Sadly when it traded down beyond reason in 2022 the bottom signal was some buy saying he was going to hang himself in this subreddit.
I wouldn't call this peak fear yet.
50 billion in cash, 200billion market cap. If you include realistically some of their investments the stock cannot go below 55-60$ per share.
although hang seng is tank seng because of sluggish spending the huge monthly downside is prob more the AI play giving up. The producers of hardware and Chip makers and memory have skyrocketed this month and all AI providers have dropped like 20-30% even in the US market (MSFT PLTR). The AI bubble burst before our eyes just not for hardware yet.
I think the market is starting to price in the possibility of AI tokens becoming a complete commodity.
So all the hyper scalers burn billions and end up barely making a profit.
Meanwhile the hardware providers get fat and rich.
Did we just buy a stock in what will become the next airline industry?
current LLMs although highly useful will not reach "AGI" unless new techniques develop. I think with the current landscape of model quality really isnt the differentiating factor as with distillation competitors quickly catch up; its more the model harness which i think Anthropic has the biggest edge in right now but I also think something like this is pretty easy to copy as well.
I think there is ton more low to go given the horse before the cart exuberance and hardware providers will eventually come back down with everyone else. If AI providers stop building out because they can't they hardware providers will have no one to sell to...
I do think AI services is the unavoidable future but I also think the market for them will consolidate as things get bad and the ones that are vertically scaled will be the industrial giants. I think google probably is the best positioned and BABA is pretty good to but i think the part that is challenging no one can predict price movement given price is dictated by consensus and that is affected by so many things....
I made the mistake of not having a stop here in at 129-130 up to 145 i should of stopped out at 130s and scaled in later. Now i have no cash and pretty underwater... If i had more cash id prob add more but since i deployed everything I think the only logical thing to do is free some cash up for other opportunities by trimming. It feels the best option from all the lose lose options for me now.
Imagine the smell if this stock exceeds 200 within this year. I think a lot of people will be mad, and just as many happy.
Because when Winnie XI Pooh suddenly removed Baba's CEO the lowest it got was $80. Baba is down because Anthropic made some claims, Department of Defense can't buy Baba, Straight of Hormuz 'uncertainty'. Its like $10 from its lowest point and compared to removing your active CEO these are nothing.
It was $180 only a few months ago
Only legit concern is China's domestic economy but the real estate market has already bottomed out.
Nothing is working out for baba. U should really do your homework.
I can assure you this is NOT the bottom. Let’s bet.
Famous last words.