r/nio
6月交付目标预测
根据近期里程碑数据和二季度指引，蔚来6月交付量将轻松突破4万辆，甚至可能达到4.8万至5.5万辆。
- 仅 ES9、Onvo L60 和 ES8 的6月推算交付量已达约2万辆，使保守总交付量估计突破4万辆。
- 受超高速增长势头推动，6月实际交付量可能达到4.8万至5.5万辆，远超保守基线。
- 旗舰车型与大众市场车型销量强劲，支撑了11万至11.5万辆的看涨二季度指引。
关于蔚来能否在六月真正跨越每月交付4万辆的里程碑，市场有大量猜测。但如果你仔细分析最近几天发布的ES8、ES9和Onvo的官方里程碑数据，数学计算表明，4万这个目标早已板上钉钉。
以下是基于现有可追踪公司数据的详细拆解与计算：
1. 可追踪里程碑数据（本月至今）
通过对比蔚来最新公布的累计里程碑数据与其官方5月31日的收盘数字，我们可以精确得出关键车型在六月的交付量：
蔚来ES9（旗舰SUV）： 蔚来刚刚宣布ES9的累计交付量达到10,000辆。5月底时的交付数为3,108辆。
六月至今： 10,000 - 3,108 = 6,892辆
Onvo L60： Onvo品牌宣布其累计交付量刚刚突破10万辆。5月底时为97,654辆。
六月至今： 100,000 - 97,654 = 2,346辆
蔚来ES8： 蔚来于6月22日宣布ES8累计交付量达到12万辆。考虑到5月份零售销量为11,472辆，它在六月维持约11,000辆的基准水平已无悬念，足以跨过该线。
仅这三项可追踪里程碑的总计： \~20,238辆。
2. 加入其余产品线的贡献
要得出真实总交付量，还需加上蔚来庞大产品组合的其余部分。5月份，其余车型——包括高端核心系列（ES6、EC6、ET5、ET5T、ET7）、新上市的大众市场车型Onvo L80，以及萤火虫系列——合计交付了21,079辆。
如果我们假设其余车型的交付量与上月相比完全持平：
20,238（可追踪里程碑）+ 21,079（其余产品线）= 41,317辆。
3. 为何最终数字很可能远超预期（4.8万至5.5万）
“持平”只是极度保守的基准。实际上，蔚来目前正处于超高速增长阶段：
二季度指引验证： 蔚来的二季度指引为11万至11.5万辆。4月已交付29,300辆，5月交付37,700辆，只需再交付42,900辆即可达成最低目标。蔚来一贯倾向于实现其指引目标。
恐怖的订单积压： 高盛与德意志银行的追踪数据显示，仅在六月前两周，蔚来集团就锁定了超过4.7万份确定订单，主要由新款五座Onvo L80及ES9高配版本驱动（这些型号当前的交付等待时间已超过16周）。
总结
里程碑数据已从数学上证明，蔚来六月的交付底限已稳达41,317辆。4万辆的门槛早已跨越。随着工厂产能大幅爬坡以消化Onvo和ES9的订单 backlog，我们实际预计六月将创下历史纪录，交付量有望达到4.8万至5.5万辆，届时官方数据将于7月1日公布。
持仓建议：做多$NIO。让我们看看二季度利润率如何扩张！
My Q2 estimate for NIO: $200 Million USD, GAAP Net profit.
https://preview.redd.it/l4z4ei94ll9h1.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=659455ed0b5afc00908d2aa919fb8091fe1a47c6
Do note that based on NIO’s own Q2 guidance, we are looking at 43-48k for June.
My take is that they will be at around 48k and touching 50k for bullish case. Let’s see what happens!
Nio just announced ES9 10000 delivery milestone. So ES8 and ES9 both already guarantee at least 20000 delivery for June 2026.
Awesome.
I’d like to sound the caution that you might see a bunch of shorts come to comment hoping to dissuade investors.
I’ve seen them lurking in the comments on here and on YouTube.
Frustrated investors aside, be weary of the shorts trying to get you to lose hope.
Blue sky coming.
They are also lurking in the NIOtubers comments as well
Yeah, never seen a bunch of people say a stock is a dead end but spend part of their life, lurking in the shadows of comments sections like junkies looking for their next fix.
If the stock is a dead end, why are you so obsessed with watching it closely and commenting on every video?
They’re remind me of a certain Viking.
Exactly. Excessive hatred is a bullish signal lol
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Even a monkey knows over 40k Is expected and guidance Is between 43k-48k the problem Is that this 10000 thousand es9 arrived too late so i dont think its will be above 47k.
ES9 start delivery only on May 28... What are u talking about? Now it's 26 June only.
Good numbers mean -10% of the stock price.... Hopefully momentum will shift soon but my whole portfolio took a big hit sinds January 26.
Good news up SP down.. just another day
I think it's going to be 20k NIOs going to shit itself and disappoint everyone