r/stocks
耐克下周将发布财报。管理层已让我们做好不抱任何重大胜算的准备
由于自食其果的战略失误、漫长的复苏周期和疲软的指引，耐克即将到来的财报面临极低预期。
- 管理层坚称公司保留了品牌资产、创新能力和全球规模等基本优势。
- 复苏战略依赖于北美市场展现出潜在的实力。
- 自食其果的战略失误包括过度依赖DTC、向市场过度供货以及放弃运动性能定位。
- 中国和EMEA市场的结构性管理不善导致复苏时间比预期更长、更混乱。
- 第四季度营收指引下降2%-4%；若低于106亿美元将严重损害转型论点。
近年来公司似乎出了不少问题，最糟糕的是，这些问题大多都是自找的。
- 全力转向直接面向消费者模式，砍掉批发合作伙伴，破坏了与他们的关系
- 大量投放AF1、AJ1、Dunks等产品，导致部分最畅销系列的热度被透支
- 追求生活方式类收入，几乎放弃了运动性能这一核心品牌定位（在我看来是重大的战略失误）
- 他们最糟糕的决策之一，是为一个从未达到预期规模的数字业务搭建了固定成本结构
- 错判了中国市场的渠道动态，导致线上和线下库存同时积压
- 欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）市场存在结构性管理失当，管理层的应对方式却是用销量掩盖问题，而非解决根本症结
- 在品牌影响力减弱、全渠道库存高企的不利局面下，试图一次性解决所有问题，反而让情况更糟
如今管理层坚称正在纠正这些错误。他们主要想传达的论点是：公司从未失去其根本优势（与运动员的关系、创新能力、品牌价值、批发渠道、全球规模等），所有问题本质上都源于执行纪律不足。
在以往的财报电话会上，他们已明确表示，恢复时间比最初预期要长，部分地区的状况也比最初诊断的更为复杂。与中国和北美相比，中国和EMEA市场存在结构性弱点，需要更多时间来修复。
他们预计第四季度营收将同比下降2%至4%，而去年同期为111亿美元。如果实际营收低于106亿美元，对Nike来说将是重大打击。他们押注北美市场能展现韧性，但如果这一预期落空，他们的整体逻辑就站不住脚了。
我正在密切关注公司接下来财报中的约24个具体里程碑，如果有兴趣的人，我会分享最新进展。目前投资者最关心的，是Nike能否真正弥补过去的失误，并坚持其提出的“清理整顿”叙事。
我个人认为，当前股价28倍远期市盈率确实偏高，尤其是我们所能获得的最佳信号也只是基本面下滑速度放缓，而非逆转。以这样一个薄弱的基础支撑28倍估值，实在难以令人信服。
Not an investor, and would not be one at this point!
Makes no sense to enter here. Only decision to make is to continue to hold, or sell
Or buy puts
What a world we live in where Champions is a sought after brand, and Nike is a joke.
I grew up in a time where you could buy Champion at K-Mart.
Again, K-Mart, guys. IYKYK.
Kinda sad to see this decline. I remember reading Phil Knight's memoir Shoe Dog, and being amazed at how the company was started with a $50 loan from his father, and him selling shoes out of his car trunk at sports events. So many valuable business and entrepreneurial lessons, and this is how the next level of leadership is running down such an amazing brand down into the ground
It's the simple result of Shareholder Value over anything. Short term gains after which everything can burn..
I collect sneakers just a little bit and every 3rd video is about how sneaker culture is ending. I don't mind, I enjoy them as a fashion accessory and would prefer lower prices for them provided the quality remains, but yeah, this trend is likely not good for the company making all those shoes
I am not sure though how nike was even profiting from the hype beast era. Resellers were the ones making a killing, nike was selling their shoes at retail prices
Me neither. I actually wear the shoes so I don't know much about the business side of all this.
I'd be surprised if resellers were making a killing though. Most of the videos I see of them are dudes clearly in their parents' house
This is exactly why I'm leaning short into earnings. A 28x forward P/E seems hard to justify when management is guiding for stabilization, not growth. If North America disappoints or the turnaround timeline slips again, I think there's much more downside than upside at this valuation.
The stock has performed terribly the last few years. But I totally disagree on the quality drop - price premium compared to the competition. Especially for shoes ( amateur running and stuff ), I have tried many brands and technologies from Adidas, on, Mizuno etc and yet nothing comes close to the nike zoomX outsole. There is no comparison, a 140 bucks Pegasus is miles better than anything else at that price point.
Note however that this is only the case for zoomX shoes, the rest are just mediocre
Thinking that flooding the market with their most popular shoes you mentioned - basically meeting demand, is a shit analysis. You're not gonna make money catering to hypebeasts and resellers.
Truth is Trump just kinda killed them.
Their sport shoes are now focus on being fashionable than delivering good performance.
I disagree with this. I’ve been wearing Nike athletic wear and Nike shoes for years at this point and they’re not an issue at all.
The shoes last a while and so does the athletic wear.
That being said this narrative has caught on and I think Nike is just not cool anymore.
What is crazy to me is their e-commerce experience is exceptional. Product info, point of sale, shipping logistics, it’s all amazing.
If they could just get sports and retailers back, that would go so far.
They would need like 90s Spike Lee level marketing with someone like Ohtani or something.